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Hogan's Council Voting History
From 1991 to 1995, Mike Hogan served on the Jacksonville City Council. During this time, Mike Hogan voted against both the Jacksonville Jaguars in 1993 and against the Riverside-Avondale Historic District in 1998 (both of which still passed). Expect loyal supporters of both groups to vote for Brown, the latter of which might be able to generate more grown swell for many reasons.
Hogan's decision to vote against the Riverside Avondale Historic District is not something forgotten by the residents of the neighborhood.
First, the folks in Riverside and Avondale (as well as the other historic neighborhoods in Jacksonville) tend to be more engaged than the average voter in Jacksonville. Second, this goes to show Hogan’s lack of understanding of basic concepts (he cited property rights as an issue, despite the fact that in 1978 the US Supreme Court specifically stated that this sort of issue was NOT a property rights issue). How well the historic districts get out the vote will be important on May 2nd.
Moran Effect
Most Audrey Moran supporters expected this runoff to be between Moran and Hogan, and felt pretty good about Moran’s chances in this race. Their joy came to a screeching halt on March 22nd. Early indications though are that Moran’s core supporters are coming over to Brown’s side (there were a significant number at Brown’s downtown rally last Thursday).
If the Moran base can rally those that voted for her the first time, it could be a good second election for Brown.
Brown is different than Nat Glover
Nat Glover was a popular person in Jacksonville when he ran for mayor in 2003, but was only able to get 42 percent of the vote. However, despite Glover’s built-in name recognition from being Sherriff, most people feel that Brown is a much better speaker, and came off better from the debates than Glover did. Furthermore, Peyton generally sounded well-spoken in the 2003 debates, and coming off of an excellent eight years for John Delaney, most people felt that even if Peyton wasn’t great, he’s do okay, and Jacksonville was feeling pretty good about itself then (think about that now!) If Brown can leverage his strengths and Hogan’s weaknesses, he might be able to make a run.
If Brown (right) wants to pull the upset, he will have to come out of the debates better than Glover did.
Rick Scott's Approval Rating
In November, Rick Scott won Duval County 51% to 46% (With the last three percent going to other candidates). This ratio was close to the statewide results. Last week (just three months into Scott’s term), it was announced that Scott’s approval rating was at 32%, and that if the election were held today, Alex Sink would win in a landslide.
Why does that matter? Well, Mike Hogan’s platform is very similar to Rick Scott's, and three months in, people are starting to see that this might not be a good thing. The more Scott's appoval rating falls, the more it could cause Hogan supporters into a moment of pause.
The Hogan Campaign
Most folks expected Mike Hogan’s campaign strategy to involve a padded room and duct tape, save for a couple visits to things that will obviously friendly to him. His performance in the debates that he showed up for in the first round was mediocre at best. However, on Friday, Hogan and his team invited Alvin Brown to a debate, which Brown accepted and challenged Hogan to five more.
Mike Hogan (third from left) was not particularly strong in the debates. Especially since the next round will be one-on-one, Brown has a chance to get Hogan off-balance.
Odds are that Hogan's people will control every aspect of these debates that they can, but the more Brown can get Hogan in a setting where Hogan has to think on his feet, the better it will be for Brown.
Editorial By Steve Congro
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dougskiles
April 05, 2011, 06:25:57 AMReason #6 - Overconfidence.
Many of Hogan's supporters will feel they have this one in the bag and won't push quite as hard to get people to the polls. A general sense of apathy will result in many choosing to stay home thinking that Hogan is so far ahead that their one vote won't make a difference.
The reverse will occur with Brown's supporters. Being surprised that they made it to the final round, they will see the possibility of victory with just a little more effort.
Disclaimer: This is not a predication, but an explanation as to how Brown might win.
JeffreyS
April 05, 2011, 06:37:39 AMIf Hogan does not see Riverside-Avondale as a historic district and the Jaguars as a positive for Jacksonville he really just does not "get it". He really is just going to be a stucco strip mall, highway and retention pond Mayor. Let's vote for Jacksonville which is against Hogan.
buckethead
April 05, 2011, 07:04:21 AMCleanup! Aisle 1!
Noone
April 05, 2011, 07:44:32 AMI see the St. Johns River our American Heritage River as a positive so why don't we have access to it? And a lot of our access points are in Dist.14 Riverside/Avondale. Huge props for Jill Dame and Jim Love for paddling Hogans Creek.
Neil, Jimmy, Littlepage,Gaffney, Redman, Peyton, The Jacksonville Waterways Commission, FIND, Florida Inland Navigation District, The St. Johns River Alliance, There are 67 counties in Florida and the other 66 are watching us and saying will they have access and economic opportunity to our River.
With Hogan I say yes. I'm voting for Hogan.
JeffreyS I hope you are able to make it to Waterways in 8 days. I hope that just your presence at the podium and asking for legislation to be introduced that would compliment 2010-604 Shipyards/Landmar that would keep the pier separate will be taken seriously by Redman, Bishop, Crescimbeni.
For years it hasn't happened for me. But I believe that you, Doug, and anyone else that shows up will make it happen with that one visit.
Disclaimer: This is not a predication, but an explanations to how we may soon have our Promised 680' Downtown Public Pier AKA Bay St. Pier Park, AKA Jacksonville's Front Porch.....Southern Style vertical access point to our St. Johns River our American Heritage River in the heart of our Downtown Jacksonville Overlay Zoning District 2003-627
Mr. O'Byrne will be proudly saying.
"VISIT JACKSONVILLE!"
tufsu1
April 05, 2011, 08:00:47 AMNoone...please provide some reasons that you are supporting Hogan...I have never once heard him suggest we should do more to protect and/or enhance our rivers and parks
Garden guy
April 05, 2011, 08:06:26 AMI can hear it now...Mayor Hogan allows any company around to suck as much water out of the river as they need and hell..why not just let them use the river to get rid of a little bit of their chemicals they don't need anymore...
jcjohnpaint
April 05, 2011, 08:31:25 AMNoone,
Not to be a pain in the ass, but what are 'all' the reasons you feel Hogan will fix this problem and other reasons? For the life of me I cannot see why this candidate will be in any way good for much of anything and he sure has not done a remarkable job proving anything different. Noone I really love your passion I am just confused why Hogan is the best man for the job?
FayeforCure
April 05, 2011, 08:32:08 AMAs a matter of fact he'd probably just SELL Hogan's Creek
http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/david-bauerlein/2011-02-28/mike-hogan-says-he-would-consider-selling
Such disrespect for preservation lands does not bode well for Hogan's Creek or any other "nature" related advocacy.
Has Hogan paddled on Hogan's Creek yet?
Is that the only photo op needed for your support?
Or is it simply the R behind his name?
vicupstate
April 05, 2011, 08:35:26 AMNot only that, but he has proposed SELLING land that has already been set aside for conservation.
His lack of support for historic preservation and conservation are a complete juxposition to any effort to preserve or enhance the Hogan's Creek area or establish a public pier.
Noone, do you know something that you aren't telling, or are you deluding yourself?
Garden guy
April 05, 2011, 08:45:47 AMHogan will make the country club rounds and win probably. These white republican more often than not..wealthy....they vote...the elderly..they vote..those that see the black man as a negative will vote..the right wing of us...they vote....
Progressive,young,educated,middle class, lower class...they don't vote..
If Mr Brown will have to spend a hell of a lot of his time gettng the youth to vote, the blacks to actually show up and vote..somehow get some invites into some of the clubs in town..i know many of them just recently started letting african americans in..lol..but he should try to get some speaking engagements...hogan is already speaking at a few of the clubs that he's a member of...is Mr. Brown a member of any clubs?...lol
wsansewjs
April 05, 2011, 09:17:23 AMSeriously in the lesser of all evils, I am sold and would go for Brown.
I know, I know, I know, you can throw dung at me for saying 'the lesser of all evils'. Hogan is a nice guy and someone I would love to have a glass of sweet tea with extra ice and lemon during the hot afternoon on the porch in the rocking chair, but he is a nightmare in politics.
-Josh
tufsu1
April 05, 2011, 09:22:56 AMtry this one out...
there were rumors after the first election that Hogan supporters actually cast ballots for Alvin with the hope that their man didn't have to face Audrey or Rick in the runoff....if true, it is sad but not really a big deal.
but there may be more to the story...it now appears that the Hogan campaign may have bussed some folks (primarily on the northside) to the polls....those people likely cast ballots for Alvin Brown...and then they were driven to a local restaurant for free lunch/dinner.
While not illegal, if this is true, it could be really bad publicity for Mr. Hogan.
futurejax
April 05, 2011, 09:24:58 AMVoting against an NFL team coming to your town? Voting against designating an area as a historic district?
These are votes that have no rational explanation. It just shows he's small minded, or worse is wary of "progress". Look, I'm a Republican and do not call myself a "progressive" but that doesn't mean I hitch my ride to the nearest dim witted Luddite either. Those votes are unnerving for a number of reasons but mostly they just don't pass the simple common sense "WHY!?!? test, unless he'd rather we be more like Albany, GA than a major msa. Jax has enough small minded people as it is, we don't need our mayor to be one as well.
fsujax
April 05, 2011, 09:27:46 AMI dont understanding his voting against those things. I do not know why it wasnt brought in the primary!
wsansewjs
April 05, 2011, 09:33:03 AMThat would be fantastic spoiler to whole local politic scene.
-Josh
FayeforCure
April 05, 2011, 09:33:16 AMHey Josh, when I asked some ladies at my local Starbucks why they voted for Rick Scott, they said they'd met him and thought he was "nice." This was on election day when polls had already closed.
I'm sure they are having second thoughts about that now.
How many times are people fooled into thinking a guy is "nice," and then see the disasterous direction these people take out country (Bush), our state (tricky ricky), and our city (Peyton)
And it's not even that these people had such a good track record to begin with.(Peyton didn't have any)
Accountability and competence should be more than just side-issues.
Anybody running will ACT "nice," and/or even be nice. It's a crappy thing to base your vote on, when so much is at stake.
My only hope is that the letter R isn't what people use to base their votes on, because it is an equally crappy way to decide the future of our city.
Disclaimer, I cannot vote in Duval county and would have voted for Audrey Moran in the open primary.
Because cross-over voting is uniquely American: after all, WE ARE ONE!!!
futurejax
April 05, 2011, 09:35:10 AMI loved Audrey but her campaign made some serious strategic mistakes.
1. Never respond to attacks from someone running BEHIND you in the polls, politics and mktg 101 (ie, Coke will never mention Pepsi)
2. That said if you're gonna launch attacks, attack the leader MIKE HOGAN, and there was a lot of material to work with obviously
3. And this could easily have been number one. JOBS, this should be the number one mantra of any candidate right now and shockingly there was a space in the race to be the one hammering the message. She didn't do it (at least sufficiently enough)
#3 Should be Brown's mojo the whole way. While Hogan fights for the 2nd amendment, (how daring fighting for part of the constitution), Brown can fight for things like jobs and quality of life for actual Jax residents. One SHOULD be a more appealing message, I repeat SHOULD BE.
wsansewjs
April 05, 2011, 09:44:34 AMHaha, I totally agree with you, Faye.
Just for the record, I never would base my vote on some politician's nice and easygoing personality.
-Josh
FayeforCure
April 05, 2011, 10:13:33 AMI like all of your points.
In marketing 101, my second major, we also learned that words matter.
There is a huge difference between:
and
Let's level the playing field here to at least:
A-Finnius
April 05, 2011, 01:55:46 PMThis was before my time in Jacksonville, but seriously Hogan voted against the Historic District and the Jaguars???
urbaknight
April 05, 2011, 02:00:25 PMSince his joke about bombing abortion clinics made national news, if he wins, that'll be another negative for us. Why would anyone want to visit an seemingly small minded, intolerant town? That's what much of the country would think if we had such a leader. That means, less revenue from visitors, less visitors.
!!!WAKE UP JACKSONVILLE!!!
Timkin
April 05, 2011, 02:05:24 PMWell put. +1
PeeJayEss
April 05, 2011, 02:53:04 PMI fail to see how you will get any sort of progress on Hogans Creek, the St Johns, or a downtown public water access with Hogan as mayor. He hasn't stated that he would do those things. And if we're trying to read into the issue based off his policy, politics, campaign, or debates, one should draw quite the opposite conclusion. I can't say whether he will be bad for the city as a whole. But in terms of cleaner, more accessible waterways, support of Hogan seems truly delusional. I bet the first thing he does is force Georgia Pacific to stop polluting the river (now where is that sarcasm font
lewyn
April 05, 2011, 02:59:58 PMI don't think people pay enough attention for Brown's speaking ability etc to matter- the fact that Hogan didn't suffer for his absenteeism from debates shows that most voters aren't aware of their existence.
tayana42
April 05, 2011, 04:38:56 PMI was a donor for and voted for Audrey Moran. I did not believe Alvin Brown had enough local involvement or recognition to be elected and so did not give him adequate consideration. I am impressed with his public persona and speaking ability....both very important for both the election and the job. I am now moving to the alvin Brown camp.
hillary supporter
April 05, 2011, 04:42:52 PMdanem
April 05, 2011, 05:04:08 PMI was "with Audrey" before, but during the debates I definitely liked what Alvin Brown had to say in all of them. He's definitely worth a look for all Moran supporters and thankfully his website issue list is on actual Mayor issues.
FayeforCure
April 05, 2011, 05:34:44 PMYeah, mostly about creating jobs, which should be a VERY high priority!!
It's not just Hogan's joke about bombing abortion clinics making national news, it's all the other VERY questionable stuff Hogans' been up to:
futurejax
April 05, 2011, 05:51:09 PMWell it's clear he really learned to think for himself with that zoology degree. One possible benefit of a Hogan mayoral term, Quran burnings! (G-ville won't be cornering the market on this money maker anymore) AND, we've now got the world's biggest courthouse. Perfect place to hold this wicked book accountable for it's crimes.
riverside planner
April 06, 2011, 09:01:48 AMI had the opportunity to meet Mr. Brown last night and I am thoroughly impressed. He gets planning, the need to curb urban sprawl and the value of historic districts and understands that building organizational capacity and trust in disadvantaged neighborhoods is a key to community improvement. His family is lovely as well.
mtraininjax
April 06, 2011, 10:51:49 PMWOW, a shocker, no solid campaign issues for Brown to run on, only that he'll win if people see that Hogan voted against the Jaguars. I am almost sorry I wasted 60 seconds to read the piece.
Come on MJ, you can do better. What are the points that Brown is running on, surely he has more than a bag of cotton candy for voters in May?!
buckethead
April 06, 2011, 10:55:09 PMWhat is Hogan running on?
Pro-Life, Pro-Gun, Anti-Immigration?
Too bad none of those are mayoral issues.
mtraininjax
April 06, 2011, 10:58:33 PMSays, who, you? Just because they don't say it, doesn't mean they don't think it.
If the Democrats in this town really wanted Brown to win, they would show up for him, since it is mostly democratic. The fact is, not enough showed up for Glover in 2003, so why should any of them show up for Brown?
JeffreyS
April 06, 2011, 11:00:52 PMBTW are you saying voting against the Jaguars isn't tantamount to stupid. We are trying to keep the team how about we show someone who has proven to be daft on this issue the door.
Timkin
April 06, 2011, 11:01:59 PMJeffrey....you're wasting your time trying to reason with the all-knowing M.
thelakelander
April 06, 2011, 11:13:26 PMOver the next two days, the front page stories will be dedicated to the official issues identified by both candidates, with detail on how they plan to deal with them. Get some sleep and check back in the morning for Mike Hogan's issues and on Friday for Alvin Brown's.
buckethead
April 07, 2011, 07:18:24 AMI'm not.
Bang away, Sailor!
Timkin
April 07, 2011, 02:45:10 PM+1,000,000 PLEASE
Jaxson
April 07, 2011, 04:18:58 PMHere are three talking points that I would push for the Alvin Brown campaign:
1. Alvin Brown has experience with handling a large budget. Brown oversaw a $4 billion budget during the Clinton administration working on urban issues.
2. Alvin Brown knows how to revive a city. He has experience developing Empowerment Zones to jump start local economies and facilitate job creation.
3. Alvin Brown helped to houses of worship in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. He managed $100 million in recovery funding to ensure that New Orleans was on the the road to recovery.
There is a lot to know about Alvin Brown and a lot that would make him an asset to our city as mayor.
mtraininjax
April 07, 2011, 06:07:37 PMSounds like the folks in New Orleans would be a better fit for him. Anyone from New Orleans coming out to support him for his efforts? Sure would be nice to know and see what he was able to do, good or bad, for them.
futurejax
April 07, 2011, 07:04:00 PMIs MIke Hogan going to also somehow become a Supreme Court Justice when elected as Mayor? Is this some new loophole?
Timkin
April 07, 2011, 07:05:37 PMHe might if M had his way
grimss
April 07, 2011, 09:22:58 PMSaw Alvin Brown the other night at Wayne Wood's house; significant turnout of J-ville leaders whom one might assume would tow the R party line, but weren't. Brown was fairly charismatic, certainly conversant in the issues, was working the preacher/dynamic thing pretty hard and largely succeeding.
Personally, I think he's surprised to find himself where he is, but his resume blows Mike Hogan's out of the water. I remain offended that Mike Hogan was the Absent Chair in debates, and hate to think that "strategic silence" could be his path to winning the mayoral race. I am excited by the fact that Brown's possible election will starve the Old Boy Network of its usual blood, and bring in young national-level talent we haven't seen before.
Here'e one Audrey supporter who just sent a check to Brown.
JeffreyS
April 07, 2011, 09:24:39 PMAnyone who wants the Jaguars to be in Jacksonville blows Mike Hogan out of the water.
mtraininjax
April 08, 2011, 09:04:12 AMYeah, well, I got 19 council members who will fight you tooth and nail over that statement! Anything Jaguar related, the Mayor does, has to be approved by the Council. Plus, Hogan could change his mind too, it does happen, even on MJ!
JeffreyS
April 08, 2011, 10:11:04 AMTrue but the next Mayor may need to be a sales man to the next group of Jaguar ownership and I would prefer a true dyed in the wool Jag over either of the candidates. I really do not want someone who has taken the position of we do not need them in the past. I wonder if people see this as a possible issue. If Mike were to get into serious negotiations with a new group would he be willing to let the Jags leave if things get rough. I want someone who is 100% in it to convince them to stay.
JeffreyS
April 08, 2011, 10:12:39 AMI would like to see this asked of the candidates at a debate.
fsujax
April 08, 2011, 10:16:24 AMI wish Audrey had brought it up. Honestly, it was one of the things that turned me off about Hogan. I love the Jags...and I couldn't believe that he would have voted against the stadium deal that helped to bring the team to Jax.
Timkin
April 08, 2011, 10:50:08 AMHell, he'd probably sell the stadium too
Timkin
April 08, 2011, 10:51:44 AMYeh well you just go get your 19 council members to do that. Woooooooooooooooooo ..really skeered
buckethead
April 08, 2011, 10:54:03 AMI am a diehard Jags fan, And I do not hold the Stadium vote against Hogan.
Not every citizen, perhaps not even a majority, would have been in favor of funding a stadium to bring an NFL franchise.
One can argue whether the team would generate revenue that would ultimately give taxpayers a roi, but I'm not convinced it is quite that simple.
I am not a fan of the way NFL franchises can hold a city hostage to get what they want.
Do I want to keep the Jags? Absolutely.
I do believe a mayor as well as a city council will need to play a bit of poker so the city isn't fleeced for the sake of a franchise. (I'm not accusing WW or anyone at Jags HQ of intending to fleece Jax) A mayor certainly shouldn't go into a negotiation with a predetermined and publicly announced policy of "whatever it takes to keep the franchise happy".
It's a big boy bidness, and the mayor needs to be prepared to play hardball. (not reckless abandon, however)
JeffreyS
April 08, 2011, 01:49:49 PMI think it is pretty obvious the scope of what the Jags do for the metro far outweighs what they may get in stadium perks. Let's at least make them feel wanted. His vote on the stadium deal shows a lack of insight into sometimes you invest for returns. I am worried all he knows is what he says cut spending to save money and cut taxes to make money. Those things work if you are overspending and overtaxing. Sometimes however it takes a little more leadership and understanding of what is going on than that.
danem
May 17, 2011, 04:02:33 PMCan he do it? I can't wait to see.
I think this thread needed to be bumped up too...
urbaknight
May 18, 2011, 02:34:51 PMIt's way too close for comfort, Alvin is leading by 600 votes or so.
JeffreyS
May 18, 2011, 02:37:42 PM585 now
Wacca Pilatka
May 18, 2011, 02:42:24 PMI find Hogan's refusal to buy season tickets more offensive as a Jags fan. Alvin has them. Shoot, I have them and I live 600 miles away.
urbaknight
May 18, 2011, 02:47:15 PMI really hope they do not do a recount. It cost about 100 grand; and Hogan"s camp may be able to rig it to his favor. Remember what happened in 2000 down in dade county? I forsee the same thing being allowed ho happen here and now! Let's pray that it doesn't.
Hogan would probably cut more from education or entitlements to pay for the recount.
Coolyfett
May 18, 2011, 06:34:55 PMstephendare
May 18, 2011, 06:36:22 PMBrown has already won.
Timkin
May 18, 2011, 06:39:40 PMIs that now official Stephen
Coolyfett
May 18, 2011, 06:40:27 PMCoolyfett
May 18, 2011, 06:40:57 PMTimkin
May 18, 2011, 06:43:00 PMI read a thread Jimmy posted on FB saying SOE office saying "No way Hogan can win"
O M G!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
stephendare
May 18, 2011, 06:43:09 PMThe votes are counted. Technically there would have to be a challenge, which would have to be in the form of a recount.
It is only official after the Supervisor of Elections has certified the results, so officially, no. In reality? yes.
Even then, it would only be correct to refer to him as the Mayor-elect until he finally takes the oath of office.
It will have more closure the moment that Hogan concedes as that will foreclose any possible challenge, but Mike has not conceded yet.
Jimmy
May 18, 2011, 06:45:19 PMAnd to force a recount, Mr. Hogan would have to get judicial approval from the Circuit Court. I can't imagine what he'd allege in order to get such approval.
It's looking good for our side.
Coolyfett
May 18, 2011, 07:04:28 PMJimmy
May 18, 2011, 07:06:45 PMMr. Hogan has conceded the race to Mayor-Elect Alvin Brown. It's over.
FloridaVoterSM
May 18, 2011, 09:34:31 PMThank GOD ! This is a Not an UPSET! It is an UPBLESSING!
DownTown Jacksonville has Nothing to Worry about! African American MAYORS have ALWAYS Supported
URBAN Development ACTION for Cities ! We african American Elected Officals have Always Supported the Central Core areas of Our Cities. Now it is TIME for ALL Floridians to Realize that EVERY Florida City NEEDS
Revitalization and Diversity! We have Struggled Since the American Revolution to Make Florida a PART of
Progressive American History: Today We have a NEW and Very Symbolic Victory and New Start for Freedom!
Dr. Tim Adams, Th. D. Former Orange Soil and Water Conservation District CHAIRMAN; and the very FIRST AFRICAN AMERICAN MAN to Win More than One Hundred Thirty THOUSAND VOTES, ( 131,100 Voted, in Orange County History!
urbaknight
May 19, 2011, 01:38:51 PMWe may finally have started to chip away at the good ol boy network. But our work is far from over and can be reversed if we're not careful.
Congrats to Alvin Brown!!!
Let us never forget about the bullet we barley dodged.