Author Topic: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset  (Read 17349 times)

Metro Jacksonville

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Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« on: April 05, 2011, 06:00:32 AM »
Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset



The results of the first city election left Jacksonville residents with a choice between Mike Hogan and Alvin Brown for Mayor. The conventional wisdom is that Hogan will win this; some even feel he will get in excess of 65% of the vote.  Here are five reasons why that might not pan out, and that Alvin Brown could prevail.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2011-apr-five-reasons-why-alvin-brown-could-pull-the-upset

dougskiles

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2011, 06:25:57 AM »
Reason #6 - Overconfidence.

Many of Hogan's supporters will feel they have this one in the bag and won't push quite as hard to get people to the polls.  A general sense of apathy will result in many choosing to stay home thinking that Hogan is so far ahead that their one vote won't make a difference.

The reverse will occur with Brown's supporters.  Being surprised that they made it to the final round, they will see the possibility of victory with just a little more effort.

Disclaimer:  This is not a predication, but an explanation as to how Brown might win.

JeffreyS

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2011, 06:37:39 AM »
If Hogan does not see Riverside-Avondale as a historic district and the Jaguars as a positive for Jacksonville he really just does not "get it".  He really is just going to be a stucco strip mall, highway and retention pond Mayor. Let's vote for Jacksonville which is against Hogan.
Lenny Smash

buckethead

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2011, 07:04:21 AM »
Quote
he’s do okay

Quote
save for a couple visits to things that will obviously friendly to him

Cleanup! Aisle 1!
« Last Edit: April 05, 2011, 07:58:32 AM by buckethead »

Noone

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #4 on: April 05, 2011, 07:44:32 AM »
If Hogan does not see Riverside-Avondale as a historic district and the Jaguars as a positive for Jacksonville he really just does not "get it".  He really is just going to be a stucco strip mall, highway and retention pond Mayor. Let's vote for Jacksonville which is against Hogan.

I see the St. Johns River our American Heritage River as a positive so why don't we have access to it? And a lot of our access points are in Dist.14 Riverside/Avondale. Huge props for Jill Dame and Jim Love for paddling Hogans Creek.

Neil, Jimmy,  Littlepage,Gaffney, Redman, Peyton, The Jacksonville Waterways Commission, FIND, Florida Inland Navigation District, The St. Johns River Alliance,  There are 67 counties in Florida and the other 66 are watching us and saying will they have access and economic opportunity to our River.

With Hogan I say yes. I'm voting for Hogan.

JeffreyS I hope you are able to make it to Waterways in 8 days. I hope that just your presence at the podium and asking for legislation to be introduced that would compliment 2010-604 Shipyards/Landmar that would keep the pier separate will be taken seriously by Redman, Bishop, Crescimbeni.

For years it hasn't happened for me. But I believe that you, Doug, and anyone else that shows up will make it happen with that one visit.

Disclaimer: This is not a predication, but an explanations to how we may soon have our Promised 680' Downtown Public Pier AKA Bay St. Pier Park, AKA Jacksonville's Front Porch.....Southern Style vertical access point to our St. Johns River our American Heritage River in the heart of our Downtown Jacksonville Overlay Zoning District 2003-627

Mr. O'Byrne will be proudly saying.

"VISIT JACKSONVILLE!"

  

tufsu1

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #5 on: April 05, 2011, 08:00:47 AM »
Noone...please provide some reasons that you are supporting Hogan...I have never once heard him suggest we should do more to protect and/or enhance our rivers and parks

Garden guy

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #6 on: April 05, 2011, 08:06:26 AM »
I can hear it now...Mayor Hogan allows any company around to suck as much water out of the river as they need and hell..why not just let them use the river to get rid of a little bit of their chemicals they don't need anymore...

jcjohnpaint

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #7 on: April 05, 2011, 08:31:25 AM »
Noone,
Not to be a pain in the ass, but what are 'all' the reasons you feel Hogan will fix this problem and other reasons?  For the life of me I cannot see why this candidate will be in any way good for much of anything and he sure has not done a remarkable job proving anything different.  Noone I really love your passion I am just confused why Hogan is the best man for the job? 

FayeforCure

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #8 on: April 05, 2011, 08:32:08 AM »
Noone...please provide some reasons that you are supporting Hogan...I have never once heard him suggest we should do more to protect and/or enhance our rivers and parks

As a matter of fact he'd probably just SELL Hogan's Creek  ;D

Quote
Mayoral candidate Mike Hogan said today he would consider selling city-owned preservation land if the economic slump keeps squeezing revenue for the city's budget.

At a forum sponsored by the Rotary Club of Jacksonville, Hogan split from two other contenders - Audrey Moran and Rick Mullaney - when asked whether he would support selling preservation land to generate revenue.

"I think everything is on the table," Hogan said. "It depends on where we are at that particular point in time. If it's pristine (land) or if it has some significant ecological significance, then of course that would not be on the table. If it's not encumbered, if it's uplands, then it could be."

Mullaney told Rotary Club members his plan to cut spending would avoid needing to sell preservation land.
"I believe it's time to change our thinking, not time to panic," Mullaney said. "I believe with the restructuring plan we have in mind, that's not necessary."

Moran ruled out selling preservation land.

"We will not sell preservation land on my watch," she said.

The city has greatly expanded its parkland in the past decade. When John Delaney was mayor, he launched the Preservation Project in 1999 with $21 million. Voters later approved another $50 million for land acquisition as part of the Better Jacksonville Plan in 2000. Other local, state, federal and private support has brought the total effort to about $200 million.


http://jacksonville.com/opinion/blog/403455/david-bauerlein/2011-02-28/mike-hogan-says-he-would-consider-selling

Such disrespect for preservation lands does not bode well for Hogan's Creek or any other "nature" related advocacy.

Has Hogan paddled on Hogan's Creek yet?

Is that the only photo op needed for your support?

Or is it simply the R behind his name?
In a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.
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vicupstate

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #9 on: April 05, 2011, 08:35:26 AM »
Quote
Noone...please provide some reasons that you are supporting Hogan...I have never once heard him suggest we should do more to protect and/or enhance our rivers and parks


Not only that, but he has proposed SELLING land that has already been set aside for conservation.

His lack of support for historic preservation and conservation are a complete juxposition to any effort to preserve or enhance the Hogan's Creek area or establish a public pier.

Noone, do you know something that you aren't telling, or are you deluding yourself?
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Garden guy

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #10 on: April 05, 2011, 08:45:47 AM »
Hogan will make the country club rounds and win probably. These white republican more often than not..wealthy....they vote...the elderly..they vote..those that see the black man as a negative will vote..the right wing of us...they vote....
Progressive,young,educated,middle class, lower class...they don't vote..
If Mr Brown will have to spend a hell of a lot of his time gettng the youth to vote, the blacks to actually show up and vote..somehow get some invites into some of the clubs in town..i know many of them just recently started letting african americans in..lol..but he should try to get some speaking engagements...hogan is already speaking at a few of the clubs that he's a member of...is Mr. Brown a member of any clubs?...lol

wsansewjs

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2011, 09:17:23 AM »
Seriously in the lesser of all evils, I am sold and would go for Brown.

I know, I know, I know, you can throw dung at me for saying 'the lesser of all evils'. Hogan is a nice guy and someone I would love to have a glass of sweet tea with extra ice and lemon during the hot afternoon on the porch in the rocking chair, but he is a nightmare in politics.

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tufsu1

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2011, 09:22:56 AM »
try this one out...

there were rumors after the first election that Hogan supporters actually cast ballots for Alvin with the hope that their man didn't have to face Audrey or Rick in the runoff....if true, it is sad but not really a big deal.

but there may be more to the story...it now appears that the Hogan campaign may have bussed some folks (primarily on the northside) to the polls....those people likely cast ballots for Alvin Brown...and then they were driven to a local restaurant for free lunch/dinner.

While not illegal, if this is true, it could be really bad publicity for Mr. Hogan.

futurejax

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2011, 09:24:58 AM »
Voting against an NFL team coming to your town?  Voting against designating an area as a historic district? 



These are votes that have no rational explanation.  It just shows he's small minded, or worse is wary of "progress".  Look, I'm a Republican and do not call myself a "progressive" but that doesn't mean I hitch my ride to the nearest dim witted Luddite either.  Those votes are unnerving for a number of reasons but mostly they just don't pass the simple common sense "WHY!?!? test, unless he'd rather we be more like Albany, GA than a major msa.  Jax has enough small minded people as it is, we don't need our mayor to be one as well. 


fsujax

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Re: Five Reasons why Alvin Brown could pull the Upset
« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2011, 09:27:46 AM »
I dont understanding his voting against those things. I do not know why it wasnt brought in the primary!