Author Topic: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops  (Read 16745 times)

thelakelander

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #15 on: June 28, 2010, 11:16:10 AM »
The other two cities to watch out for that are likely to trump us are Austin and Fort Worth, they're both explosively growing and aren't likely to stop anytime soon.

Unless something drastic happens, they'll probably catch and pass us by the end of the decade.
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reednavy

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #16 on: June 28, 2010, 11:44:55 AM »
Unless something drastic happens, they'll probably catch and pass us by the end of the decade.
The raw numbers that they've both been growing, it could probably happen by 2015, especially Fort Worth.

Miami will continue to grow in size(sq. miles) I'm sure as they incoporate the many areas of unicoporated Miami-Dade County.
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thelakelander

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #17 on: June 28, 2010, 12:39:13 PM »
Miami's long term growth is limited because most of its suburbs are incorporated cities themselves.  In fact, the city has shrunk in size since.  Back in 1930 it covered 43 square miles.  Now it's slightly under 36 square miles with three times as much density.
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I-10east

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #18 on: June 28, 2010, 12:46:12 PM »
Can people get over the fact that we're consolidated? Last time I checked, there wasn't an asterisk next to Jax on this list.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 12:47:45 PM by I-10east »

north miami

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #19 on: June 28, 2010, 12:54:32 PM »

 Tongue (slightly) in cheek headline:

 Increasing popularity of urban living has caused growth of Clay & St.Johns

Onward-

AaroniusLives

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #20 on: June 28, 2010, 01:32:22 PM »
Quote
Can people get over the fact that we're consolidated? Last time I checked, there wasn't an asterisk next to Jax on this list.

Well, the city-county consolidation is important for a variety of reasons not to "get over." In the first place, it results in apples-and-oranges comparisons. When you compare the City of Jacksonville to say the City of Orlando, you're really comparing most of a county to a small section of a county. It helps to point out the consolidation regarding these comparisons because it notes the difference. If city/county consolidations were commonplace in Florida and the rest of the country, Jacksonville would leap back on the list dramatically.

I'm actually more for consolidation than not. It's stupid that a person can live in "Orlando," but in reality live in "Celebration," a part of the suburban sprawl that overall identifies as "Orlando." For example, I grew up in "Miami," but in reality I lived in a suburb of Miami.

In the next place, consolidation tends to hide inherent realities under the mass of the city-county relationship. As noted, consolidation masks the decline in the urban core's population and vitality.

Quote
+3,782 Tampa (112.1 square miles)

+3,627 Jacksonville (767 square miles)

+3,539 Orlando (93.5 square miles)

+1,940 Miami (35.68 square miles)

I know absolute growth isn't everything but when economically struggling places 15% of your size (or less) are still packing in more or just as much people, there should be some concern.  The overall growth slowdown has impacted just about every region of the country outside of Texas.  Seriously, if we took away the curtain of consolidation, our city would show population loss.  That's something that is not happening across the majority of the country.

It becomes more jarring when you break it down by population increase per square mile (rounded up):
Tampa: 34
Jacksonville: 5
Orlando: 38
Miami: 54

Again, it's not a fair comparison, as we're comparing apples and oranges here, with regards to consolidation. But leaving Jacksonville out of the mix, Tampa and Orlando had the most total population increase, but Miami has the largest jump in density.

It's one of the problems with news and data reporting nowadays in general. A number and a ranking taken out of context means little without some analysis. Because an increase of about 5 people per square mile is quite revelatory about the state of the city-county consolidation that is Jacksonville, in a way that a baseline number in a list is not.

And again, it's not really about numbers and rankings and being the biggest. In the first place, "biggest" isn't necessarily "best." In no way has being the largest city in Florida given Jacksonville cache and status over other cities, other counties, or other regions in the state. None. Even though Miami is "smaller," there's a cultural cache to The Magic City that drive people to the city and the county.

And size isn't everything. My current city of Washington DC isn't the biggest in the nation. The metro region isn't the largest (although it's quite large and populated.) But it's a much more pleasant place to live than say...Los Angeles. It's certainly greener and prettier than New York. And right now, it's just as unbearably hot as Jacksonville! Asheville in North Carolina is a small city in the mountains. And it's awesome. Because they focused on being the best they could be, that city is a pleasant place to visit and I suspect, live.

Having said all that, it would be interesting to see an overall county comparison as well, for a more accurate picture of what's going on. Meaning that we know that Miami the city has grown in population, but has Miami the county? And what's the increase/decrease rate per square mile? 




thelakelander

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2010, 02:04:59 PM »
Here you go:

Florida's Top 10 Counties

1. Miami-Dade County

2009: 2,500,625
2000: 2,253,362

2008-2009: +21,880
2000-2009: +247,263

2. Broward County

2009: 1,766,476
2000: 1,623,018

2008-2009: +13,214
2000-2009: +143,458

3. Palm Beach County

2009: 1,279,950
2000: 1,131,184

2008-2009: +10,205
2000-2009: +148,776

4. Hillsborough County

2009: 1,195,317
2000: 998,948

2008-2009: +15,199
2000-2009: +196,369

5. Orange County

2009: 1,086,480
2000: 896,344

2008-2009: +10,743
2000-2009: +190,136

6. Pinellas County

2009: 909,013
2000: 921,482

2008-2009: -1,045
2000-2009: -12,484

7. Duval County

2009: 857,040
2000: 778,879

2008-2009: +3,924
2000-2009: +78,161


8. Lee County

2009: 586,908
2000: 440,888

2008-2009: -1,801
2000-2009: +146,020

9. Polk County

2008: 583,403
2000: 483,924

2008-2009: +3,121
2000-2009: +99,479

10. Brevard County

2008: 536,357
2000: 476,230

2008-2009: +43
2000-2009: +60,127

Source: http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.html
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north miami

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #22 on: June 28, 2010, 02:10:52 PM »
Quote
Can people get over the fact that we're consolidated? Last time I checked, there wasn't an asterisk next to Jax on this list.



In the next place, consolidation tends to hide inherent realities under the mass of the city-county relationship. As noted, consolidation masks the decline in the urban core's population and vitality.

Quote
+3,782 Tampa (112.1 square miles)

+3,627 Jacksonville (767 square miles)

+3,539 Orlando (93.5 square miles)

+1,940 Miami (35.68 square miles)



It becomes more jarring when you break it down by population increase per square mile (rounded up):
Tampa: 34
Jacksonville: 5
Orlando: 38
Miami: 54

Again, it's not a fair comparison, as we're comparing apples and oranges here, with regards to consolidation. But leaving Jacksonville out of the mix, Tampa and Orlando had the most total population increase, but Miami has the largest jump in density.

It's one of the problems with news and data reporting nowadays in general. A number and a ranking taken out of context means little without some analysis.



And size isn't everything.





Much of the Consolidated Duval land area is and will remain undeveloped.Same with Miami/Dade County and Ft.lauderdale/Broward County ...the western halves of those counties preserved rural Everglades, a huge area.Is the 'glades land area factored in Miami & Lauderdale analysis??.

A key driver for some prospective new residents is desire to flee from very real growth related issues and the profile of "Duval" as 'largest' has stemmed interest in some circles.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 02:16:16 PM by north miami »

reednavy

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #23 on: June 28, 2010, 02:14:16 PM »
Miami's long term growth is limited because most of its suburbs are incorporated cities themselves.  In fact, the city has shrunk in size since.  Back in 1930 it covered 43 square miles.  Now it's slightly under 36 square miles with three times as much density.
I'm sure they can incorporate parts of the county that are unincorporated, it'd be a smart move IMO.
Jacksonville: We're not vertically challenged, just horizontally gifted!

AaroniusLives

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2010, 02:30:07 PM »
Quote
Much of the Consolidated Duval land area is and will remain undeveloped.Same with Miami/Dade County and Ft.lauderdale/Broward County ...the western halves of those counties preserved rural Everglades, a huge area.Is the 'glades land area factored in Miami & Lauderdale analysis??.

I'm sure the preserved area isn't factored into the county or city-county consolidation analysis per square mile. In that instance, much more of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County would be off the square mile map. They would be even denser. When we're talking about the cities, however, Miami and Fort Lauderdale (and West Palm Beach) are all eastern, and have no Everglades land to speak of.

Quote
Quote
Miami's long term growth is limited because most of its suburbs are incorporated cities themselves.  In fact, the city has shrunk in size since.  Back in 1930 it covered 43 square miles.  Now it's slightly under 36 square miles with three times as much density.
I'm sure they can incorporate parts of the county that are unincorporated, it'd be a smart move IMO.

Actually, there's not a great deal of unincorporated communities left in Miami-Dade County, and most would rather not be consolidated into the City of Miami. If anything, that stretch of the world is anti-consolidation.

« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 02:39:06 PM by AaroniusLives »

thelakelander

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #25 on: June 28, 2010, 02:33:49 PM »
The county and city numbers factor in everything within their specific borders.  Thus, the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach statistics also include the Everglades, meaning their denser than numbers suggest.  The city of Miami's numbers don't include the glades because they aren't within the city's 35 square mile municipal limits.
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tufsu1

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #26 on: June 28, 2010, 02:49:33 PM »
On what grounds?  Why isnt the same thing happening in the other major floridian cities then?

It is...check the stats big guy!

Our growth is similar (proportional) to that of Miami, Orlando, and Tampa Bay...since 2000...

Miami/Dade County - grew 11%
Broward County - 9%
Hillsborough County - grew 20%
Pinellas County - lost 1%
Orange County - grew 21%
Duval County - grew 10%

and from 2008 - 2009

Miami/Dade County - grew 0.8%
Broward County - grew 0.7%
Hillsborough County - grew 1.2%
Pinellas County - lost 0.1%
Orange County - grew 0.9%
Duval County - grew 0.5%

« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 03:02:27 PM by tufsu1 »

tufsu1

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #27 on: June 28, 2010, 03:00:42 PM »
look up

AaroniusLives

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #28 on: June 28, 2010, 03:07:07 PM »
tufsu1, that was helpful. Can you do it for all the counties in the list?


tufsu1

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Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #29 on: June 28, 2010, 03:07:27 PM »
no...let me try and explain this again

Orange County (Orlando) and Hillsborough County (Tampa) each grew by 20% over the last 9 years....but only about 1% between 2008-2009

Duval County (Jacksonville) grew by 10% over the last 10 years....but only about 0.5% between 2008-2009

which means our slowdown was proportional to theirs.