Author Topic: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops  (Read 15893 times)

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11433
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #30 on: June 28, 2010, 03:08:58 PM »
I'm not the one who doesn't seem to understand math

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11433
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #31 on: June 28, 2010, 03:39:53 PM »
ok...well I'm also not one who tends to delete my own posts, so no worries there...since apprently I don't understand this, please explain....

Tampa and Orlando grew at an annual rate of about 2.4% from 2000-2008 and then about 1% from 2008-2009...represents about a 58% slowdown

Jacksonville grew at annual rate of 1.2% from 2000-2008 and then about 0.5% from 2008-2009...representing about a 58% slowdown

So how is our slowdown more pronounced than theirs?

AaroniusLives

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 185
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #32 on: June 28, 2010, 03:45:53 PM »
Quote
Our growth is similar (proportional) to that of Miami, Orlando, and Tampa Bay...since 2000...

Miami/Dade County - grew 11%
Broward County - 9%
Hillsborough County - grew 20%
Pinellas County - lost 1%
Orange County - grew 21%
Duval County - grew 10%

and from 2008 - 2009

Miami/Dade County - grew 0.8%
Broward County - grew 0.7%
Hillsborough County - grew 1.2%
Pinellas County - lost 0.1%
Orange County - grew 0.9%
Duval County - grew 0.5%

Well, to be fair, I think stephendare does understand math. Duval's growth rate and slowdown is similar and proportional to Miami-Dade's and Broward's. The slowdown is also applicable and comparable.

However, Duval grew nowhere near as fast as either Hillsborough or Orange. And the drop-off in growth is not nearly as dramatic, nor is it comparable. They grew at 20% and are still growing at 1%? Wow.

I'm surprised you didn't include the rest of the counties in the mix.

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35174
    • Modern Cities
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #33 on: June 28, 2010, 04:11:58 PM »
How about central city growth rates?  I suspect that urban Jax (the actual city) is continuing to lose residents and those numbers are being hidden and overlooked by suburban growth in the rest of the county/city.  By the same token, I suspect that the cities of Tampa, Miami and Orlando may be growing at a faster rate than their core counties.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2010, 04:21:55 PM by thelakelander »
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

fieldafm

  • Editor
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4681
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #34 on: June 28, 2010, 04:32:13 PM »
How about central city growth rates?  I suspect that urban Jax (the actual city) is continuing to lose residents and those numbers are being hidden and overlooked by suburban growth in the rest of the county/city.  By the same token, I suspect that the cities of Tampa, Miami and Orlando may be growing at a faster rate than their core counties.

Good point.

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11433
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #35 on: June 28, 2010, 05:05:36 PM »
actually I'm not sure that is the case....suburban growth has practically halted almost everywhere in Florida....while it might not be our urban core expanding, but areas like Southside/Tinseltown are still infill (empty areas surrounded by development).

stjr

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2982
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #36 on: June 28, 2010, 05:07:28 PM »
As some have already noted, if we get our house in order, growth would take care of itself.  This "growth for the sake of growth" is old school.  If you are going to move your company or yourself, you want to move where there are great amenities and quality of life, such as schools and education, easy transit, diverse and quality things to do, great climate and natural environments, character of place, etc.  We have much of this but have also mismanaged much.  I would say we rate at best a "C" in exploiting our assets.  Until we do better, I expect us to languish against the cities we wish to compare ourselves to otherwise.

One day, perhaps, a new citizen regime will move in and take us to the promised land.  Some of those citizens are here now, but we lack the full number.  Unfortunately, we are on a treadmill in which many of these visionaries give up on us and go elsewhere to contribute where they can make more of a difference or find what they already envision exists.
Hey!  Whatever happened to just plain ol' COMMON SENSE!!

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11433
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #37 on: June 28, 2010, 05:15:05 PM »
As some have already noted, if we get our house in order, growth would take care of itself.  This "growth for the sake of growth" is old school.  If you are going to move your company or yourself, you want to move where there are great amenities and quality of life, such as schools and education, easy transit, diverse and quality things to do, great climate and natural environments, character of place, etc.  We have much of this but have also mismanaged much.  I would say we rate at best a "C" in exploiting our assets.  Until we do better, I expect us to languish against the cities we wish to compare ourselves to otherwise.

One day, perhaps, a new citizen regime will move in and take us to the promised land.  Some of those citizens are here now, but we lack the full number.  Unfortunately, we are on a treadmill in which many of these visionaries give up on us and go elsewhere to contribute where they can make more of a difference or find what they already envision exists.


once again stjr...we agree!

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35174
    • Modern Cities
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #38 on: June 28, 2010, 05:16:57 PM »
Quote
but areas like Southside/Tinseltown are still infill (empty areas surrounded by development).

I'd qualify Tinseltown as suburban growth.  While the Southside has had some leapfrog development, most of the JTB corridor has developed over the last 20 years or so, inching development closer to the Davis property.  With that said, I believe there should be great concern about our urban core not being able to take advantage of a national trend.  It shows that we're lacking something locally.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35174
    • Modern Cities
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #39 on: June 28, 2010, 05:20:05 PM »
I agree with Stjr's post as well.  However, I do believe there is a problem if the urban core is not growing (which it isn't) in spite of a nationwide growth development pattern.  There is nothing special about places like the Tinseltown area that will make them attractive and sustainable long term.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

AaroniusLives

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 185
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #40 on: June 28, 2010, 05:56:11 PM »
Quote
As some have already noted, if we get our house in order, growth would take care of itself.  This "growth for the sake of growth" is old school.  If you are going to move your company or yourself, you want to move where there are great amenities and quality of life, such as schools and education, easy transit, diverse and quality things to do, great climate and natural environments, character of place, etc.  We have much of this but have also mismanaged much.  I would say we rate at best a "C" in exploiting our assets.  Until we do better, I expect us to languish against the cities we wish to compare ourselves to otherwise.

Moreover, you can see the effects of "growth for the sake of growth" all over both the urban core and the surrounding city-county areas of Jacksonville. Jacksonville has always struck me as an entirely over-built city. It always feels like it's missing people, that it's britches are too big for the actual population of the city. Minneapolis has the same feel: huge highways, malls and skyscrapers without actual people. This is not a 'dis on Jacksonville. It's merely an opinion. It just feels like they built Jacksonville for more people than are actually living there. So, in the future, Jacksonville should build for the right size of Jacksonville. Here's a great idea: don't expand your office capacity until you're at 100% occupancy!

As for the "why" people migrate from one city to the next, that really depends upon the person or familial unit. I suspect that many people move to a city because of the schools/amenities/quality of life, and I also suspect that "cheap" trumps some of those qualifications. To put this another way, there are many folks who fall down when I tell them my cost of living in DC. Despite all the awesome "quality of life" aspects, it's just too damned expensive for them to consider.

Quote
One day, perhaps, a new citizen regime will move in and take us to the promised land.  Some of those citizens are here now, but we lack the full number.  Unfortunately, we are on a treadmill in which many of these visionaries give up on us and go elsewhere to contribute where they can make more of a difference or find what they already envision exists.

That's sadly true. I got fed up with even the relatively progressive South Florida and merely moved to a place that was more my speed. However, periodically a leader comes along and shows how it can be done. For example, Manny Diaz, the mayor of Miami from 2001-2009, is more responsible than anybody for utterly transforming Miami. The Miami I left behind was a corporate-by-day/wasteland-by-night 1980s/1990s paradigm for Florida. The Miami he governed was open, urban and attracted life to the core (and enhanced efforts underway in Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach as well.) He was the right man for the right time. During his ascent there, I was already in Atlanta...where a Manny Diaz was and is sorely needed.

Quote
However, I do believe there is a problem if the urban core is not growing (which it isn't) in spite of a nationwide growth development pattern.

Probably the most tragic thing that happened in Jacksonville over the last decade was in not jumping on the urban boom. That that fabric wasn't built means that Jacksonville is starting from Square One, where other cities have moved ahead in the game.


Live_Oak

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #41 on: June 28, 2010, 06:01:26 PM »
Do no more posts from stephen dare mean that he discovered he was wrong and tufsu1 was right?  Tufsu1's math is correct.

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35174
    • Modern Cities
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #42 on: June 28, 2010, 06:14:17 PM »
Quote
Our growth is similar (proportional) to that of Miami, Orlando, and Tampa Bay...since 2000...

Miami/Dade County - grew 11%
Broward County - 9%
Hillsborough County - grew 20%
Pinellas County - lost 1%
Orange County - grew 21%
Duval County - grew 10%

and from 2008 - 2009

Miami/Dade County - grew 0.8%
Broward County - grew 0.7%
Hillsborough County - grew 1.2%
Pinellas County - lost 0.1%
Orange County - grew 0.9%
Duval County - grew 0.5%

Well, to be fair, I think stephendare does understand math. Duval's growth rate and slowdown is similar and proportional to Miami-Dade's and Broward's. The slowdown is also applicable and comparable.

However, Duval grew nowhere near as fast as either Hillsborough or Orange. And the drop-off in growth is not nearly as dramatic, nor is it comparable. They grew at 20% and are still growing at 1%? Wow.

I'm surprised you didn't include the rest of the counties in the mix.

Another factor that should not be lost is Pinellas, Miami-Dade and Broward are all essentially built out.  The majority of growth in these places comes from redevelopment and high density urban infill.  On the other hand, the majority of growth in Duval, Hillsborough and Orange happens to be urban sprawl.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

AaroniusLives

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 185
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #43 on: June 28, 2010, 06:36:42 PM »
Quote
Quote
Duval's growth rate and slowdown is similar and proportional to Miami-Dade's and Broward's. The slowdown is also applicable and comparable.
Another factor that should not be lost is Pinellas, Miami-Dade and Broward are all essentially built out.  The majority of growth in these places comes from redevelopment and high density urban infill.  On the other hand, the majority of growth in Duval, Hillsborough and Orange happens to be urban sprawl.

It's also interesting to note that Pinellas didn't grow, because politically the majority of that county didn't want to urbanize (outside of downtown St. Pete.) And that Miami-Dade and Broward turned to high-density urban infill development because they had no choice in the matter. Miami-Dade and Broward didn't have a "Portland" or "Vancouver" epiphany and decide to pursue smart growth strategies; those counties ran out of space to continue to build the bad stuff, and started to build the good stuff (and sadly, in many cases, built the "suburbs in the sky" style of high-rises instead of New Urbanist development.)

That seems to be an unfortunate trait in Florida: smart growth after all other ways of growth have been extinguished and it's the only possibility left.

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11433
Re: City Population Estimates Released: Jax Rank Drops
« Reply #44 on: June 29, 2010, 11:25:44 AM »
I've asked you to explain how my math is wrong and/or what I don't understand.

Please enlighten me