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Even if it's cheap and affordable to build, a 1-ish mile streetcar line that little-to-nobody uses is a failure. It shows as a failure and can be used to demonstrate the futility of trying for projects such as these in the future (see: Skytrain.)
Salt Lake City - 45,200 riders/day - 19 mile system
Houston - 31,100 riders/day - 7.5 mile system
Buffalo - 22,300 riders/day - 6.4 mile system
Charlotte - 20,000 riders/day - 9.6 mile system
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_light_rail_systems_by_ridership
I think these communities are real life examples that prove the theory mentioned above flat out wrong. Ultimate success of mass transit has more to do with creating systems that take people where they want to go in a reliable, attractive, timely and cost efficient manner moreso than what a region's suburbanites may think.
...except that you're proposing a much, MUCH smaller system, about 1.5 miles in a suburban oriented MSA. Like it or not, you need their buy-in to get a system running. Lest we forget that something like 92% of the country's metro development
is suburban to begin with, and that most people
prefer suburbia paired to individual vehicular travel.
From the same article, you could also find the more appropriate:
TECO Streetcar in Tampa - 2.3 miles - 700 passengers
Tacoma Link - 1.6 miles - 3,200 passengers
South Lake Union in Seattle - 1.3 miles - 1,700 passengers
River Rail Streetcar in Little Rock - 2.5 miles - 340 passengers
Moreover, "ultimate success of mass transit" comes from a combination of moving people, land redevelopment (so that the people moved have something to do/places to work with no need for a car when they get there,) and
political will. Tampa's streetcar, for example, is being looked upon as a "success." They're expanding the system by another couple of miles or so. Part of the reason it's viewed as a "success" is that it helped to gentrify the Channelside District, and move in higher incomes to the once maligned (yet "clubby,") area. It also helped that the streetcar was one component of a massive private-public redevelopment project with a true, organized vision and goal.
But at 700 passengers a day, it's hardly taking anyone "where they want to go." At the same time, the people of Tampa like it, appreciate it (if not actually
use it,) and are expanding it. Hence,
political will. The "success" of the TECO streetcar has enabled the region to finally begin pursuing
actual LRT with some political hope of surviving.
Which was my main point, really. I heart mass transit in all its forms. I sold my car years ago and haven't driven since. I like bike lanes and paths, buses and trams...even fancy automated people movers at the airport. I'm a transit/urban geek. As are all of us on this site, really. But if you really want a transit-oriented metropolis
en masse, you need to activate the political will of the people and get there. I'd argue that you're a step back from that: you need to discover if there's enough of a critical mass of Jacksonvillians who even
have this desire. And you have to convince these folks to get
politically active and push this agenda forward.
How many are merely happy to look at the pretty pictures and demographic breakdowns on this site, only to go back to their car-centric life again, keeping the dream couched in apathy? How many are willing to rally, fund-raise and the rest to make the transit dream in Jacksonville a reality? Get the numbers and you get your system.
Which brings me back to my original query, and now applies to all the examples you and I listed above, as well as Vancouver:
They have the political desire to have transit. Does Jacksonville?
Ocklawaha, I got my wires crossed. Skytrain in Vancouver is very successful. Skyway in JAX is not.