Author Topic: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan  (Read 21095 times)

Jax_Developer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 598
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #75 on: May 22, 2024, 07:26:44 AM »
Ken I agree with a lot of points you made. If it is easier get my point across by comparing every NFL stadium deal, there are only 32 and that isn't hard to do. I can get into it more this weekend. In general, teams need new land to build a new stadium. The downtime they incur from the projects (planning & build), often makes these strategies completely non-starters without it. Where would they have gone anyway?

The fact the Jaguars didn't attempt to go for a new build, makes complete business sense. In fact, are there any new stadiums built exactly where the old one was? I can't think of a recent example. The Jags stadium is legitimately one of a very small group to be built basically where the old one was (we know why). Because the Jags/taxpayer had already sunk a considerable cost to their nearby developments, that indicates that anything new was completely out of the question (due to timeline, cost & complications mainly).

Hence why the more well known stadiums in the league, get renovations rather than entirely new buildings. Obviously there is a historical element there, but just like Lake mentions, it's almost always cheaper to reuse/renovate. The thing is, those renovations are often much much less expensive than what we are discussing here. I don't see this as a meaningful argument that the Jaguars are being reasonable or something like that. This is one of, if not, the largest NFL stadium renovation ever funded. They are covering their P/L. And while it may seem most stadiums are new, the fact remains that more than 20 stadiums in the NFL are more than 20 years old. Yes they have been renovated, but none of them near the cost the Jags have proposed (other than Cleveland who is still completely unsure with what they are doing). Renovations are still the main route teams go to upgrade their facilities.

Again, back to the CBA. If there was an actual split of public (state & local) funding, then there would be much less cause to pushback on the community giving. The fact of the matter is, there are thousands of families that live in consolidated areas, that still lack basic city services. We are quite literally telling the folks in the greater Eastside, they matter more for the wrongs of the past than other taxpayers. If I lived on the Northside or Westside without safe & reliable water/sewer, I'd be pretty upset. Thing is, will those people ever really know what happened? Probably not, and not because some of them don't care to know...

I post on here about the Septic Phase Out Program, but of course nobody cares... City Council members, everyday citizens alike. Stadium deals get people fired up, for all the wrong reasons. The Jaguars are a privilege to the city. It requires smart fiscal planning & a community that supports them for it to make sense. When it starts to become a big red flag, is when we start to justify putting off or delaying programs  to pay for other shiny things. (Like a CBA in an area that already has water/sewer & community interest.) There's no way there isn't a cost to the taxpayer. Money just doesn't work like that.

Just do the deal, say we are willing to make the Jags happy, and leave it there. Again, zero state funds, and this is somehow a good deal to the average duval taxpayer? That doesn't align.

ADDED: https://www.duanemorris.com/articles/revolution_nfl_stadiums_analysis_deal_structure_related_rewards_0923.html

Here is a breakdown of all the "real" stadium deals right now, in which we are certainly very unique in our funding, and scope.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2024, 08:06:29 AM by Jax_Developer »

Joey Mackey

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 39
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #76 on: May 23, 2024, 03:02:33 PM »
A few more details via public records request from the Daily Record before the paperwork/agreement is officially presented to the Council.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/may/23/goodbye-grass-new-details-about-stadium-of-the-future-renovation/

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/may/23/drafts-of-stadium-agreements-provide-details-of-construction-community-benefits/

Some things that stood out to me: switching to an artificial turf field, despite the recent complaints by NFL Players and their Union; Main Concourse and Upper Concourse will wrap around the entire stadium; Current JumboTrons are staying in place; cost overruns are covered by the Jaguars unless the City is the cause for the cost overrun, seems to be inviting future disputes/litigation.

Oh and the stadium will be open to the public to serve as a public park during non-event days. That's pretty awesome if that is implemented the way it sounds.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2024, 03:09:19 PM by Joey Mackey »

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1660
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #77 on: May 23, 2024, 11:03:14 PM »
Oh and the stadium will be open to the public to serve as a public park during non-event days. That's pretty awesome if that is implemented the way it sounds.

I *think* this has probably been worded wrong by some of the local media.

My read isn't that stadium itself will be open to the public, but that the perimeter of the stadium will serve as a green promenade to deflect heat and act as passive greenspace for those in the area.

Some of the documents are starting to drop in draft form, but still a lot of missing elements.

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1660
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #78 on: May 28, 2024, 02:11:30 PM »
Pretty incredible that:

1) The overwhelming majority of Jacksonville citizens (80%+) support the City partnering with the Jags on the CBA.

2) The inclusion of the CBA is enough to flip public support of the city subsidizing the stadium from majority opposed to majority support.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/may/28/poll-jaguars-stadium-renovation-support-boosted-by-community-benefits-agreement/

jax_hwy_engineer

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 107
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #79 on: May 28, 2024, 03:08:51 PM »
They're removing funding from infrastructure projects to fund this. I've heard of one particular project that is meant to replace a crumbling box culvert being set on the shelf for the foreseeable future in order to prioritize funding for the stadium deal. This crumbling box culvert was first noticed in 2013. Several other infrastructure projects are being de-prioritized for this.

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1660
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #80 on: May 28, 2024, 03:15:09 PM »
They're removing funding from infrastructure projects to fund this. I've heard of one particular project that is meant to replace a crumbling box culvert being set on the shelf for the foreseeable future in order to prioritize funding for the stadium deal. This crumbling box culvert was first noticed in 2013. Several other infrastructure projects are being de-prioritized for this.

Is it possible that some of these projects are just being shifted from the general fund back into the Better Jacksonville Plan?

jax_hwy_engineer

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 107
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #81 on: May 28, 2024, 03:43:33 PM »
They're removing funding from infrastructure projects to fund this. I've heard of one particular project that is meant to replace a crumbling box culvert being set on the shelf for the foreseeable future in order to prioritize funding for the stadium deal. This crumbling box culvert was first noticed in 2013. Several other infrastructure projects are being de-prioritized for this.

Is it possible that some of these projects are just being shifted from the general fund back into the Better Jacksonville Plan?

I don't think any of the projects we're working on are a part of the BJP. From what I've heard, these are simply being shelved for the foreseeable future when new funding possibly comes into the picture in a handful of years.

Tacachale

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8326
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #82 on: May 28, 2024, 04:07:12 PM »
They're removing funding from infrastructure projects to fund this. I've heard of one particular project that is meant to replace a crumbling box culvert being set on the shelf for the foreseeable future in order to prioritize funding for the stadium deal. This crumbling box culvert was first noticed in 2013. Several other infrastructure projects are being de-prioritized for this.

Nothing is being canceled or delayed from the CIP for this deal. There’ll be some adjustment of the CIP for various reasons, but the only things that are impacted by the stadium deal are those going back to the BJP funding source.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2024, 04:10:21 PM by Tacachale »
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Tacachale

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8326
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #83 on: May 28, 2024, 05:16:21 PM »
Pretty incredible that:

1) The overwhelming majority of Jacksonville citizens (80%+) support the City partnering with the Jags on the CBA.

2) The inclusion of the CBA is enough to flip public support of the city subsidizing the stadium from majority opposed to majority support.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/news/2024/may/28/poll-jaguars-stadium-renovation-support-boosted-by-community-benefits-agreement/

The community benefits agreement is frankly the best part of the deal, and evidently the part voters most respond to. I’m proud to see it in there.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Skybox111

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #84 on: May 28, 2024, 06:07:38 PM »
They only polled 600 voters out 900,000

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5178
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #85 on: May 28, 2024, 06:43:27 PM »
They only polled 600 voters out 900,000

That is a reasonable sample size for the Jacksonville (Duval County) population of 1,041,000,
First some Statistics 101. The three key factors in a survey sample are Sample Size, Margin of Error, and Sampling Confidence Level. Here are definitions of the last two from a survey company's website
Quote
Margin of error: A percentage that tells you how much you can expect your survey results to reflect the views of the overall population. The smaller the margin of error, the closer you are to having the exact answer at a given confidence level.

Sampling confidence level: A percentage that reveals how confident you can be that the population would select an answer within a certain range. For example, a 95% confidence level means you can be 95% certain the results lie between x and y numbers.

A 95% Confidence Level and 5% Margin of Error are standards in the survey industry, and a 99% Confidence Level is the Gold+ Standard.

For Duval County's 1,041,000 population
5% Margin of Error and 95% Confidence Level - you need a Sample Size of 385
for 5% MoE and 99% Confidence Level - you need a Sample Size of 666

If you only want to reflect the 622,500 registered voters in Duval, the sample sizes are nearly the same.

Source: SurveyMonkey sample size calculator, and confirmed by another website
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ 

This also assumes the sample adequately represents the geographic, ethnic, and political populations of Duval - in other words, not all the surveyed live in Deerwood, or Brentwood.

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1660
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #86 on: May 28, 2024, 10:20:22 PM »
They only polled 600 voters out 900,000

That is a reasonable sample size for the Jacksonville (Duval County) population of 1,041,000,
First some Statistics 101. The three key factors in a survey sample are Sample Size, Margin of Error, and Sampling Confidence Level. Here are definitions of the last two from a survey company's website
Quote
Margin of error: A percentage that tells you how much you can expect your survey results to reflect the views of the overall population. The smaller the margin of error, the closer you are to having the exact answer at a given confidence level.

Sampling confidence level: A percentage that reveals how confident you can be that the population would select an answer within a certain range. For example, a 95% confidence level means you can be 95% certain the results lie between x and y numbers.

A 95% Confidence Level and 5% Margin of Error are standards in the survey industry, and a 99% Confidence Level is the Gold+ Standard.

For Duval County's 1,041,000 population
5% Margin of Error and 95% Confidence Level - you need a Sample Size of 385
for 5% MoE and 99% Confidence Level - you need a Sample Size of 666

If you only want to reflect the 622,500 registered voters in Duval, the sample sizes are nearly the same.

Source: SurveyMonkey sample size calculator, and confirmed by another website
https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/sample-size-calculator/ 

This also assumes the sample adequately represents the geographic, ethnic, and political populations of Duval - in other words, not all the surveyed live in Deerwood, or Brentwood.

This man gets it.

Same reason a mere 40,000 Nielsen families have historically swayed billions of advertising dollars because they're statistically representative of 122 million U.S. households.

In the above example, the reason that the sample size needed to reflect the overall Duval population (1.04 million) and the sample size needed to reflect Duval's registered voters (623k) is virtually identical (and the reason a representative sample in both the U.S. and UK is around 2,000, despite their radically different population sizes) is because once you reach an appropriate sample, you'll very quickly hit a point of diminishing returns where it just isn't useful to add more respondents.

For the simplest example possible, imagine discovering a normal coin that you know nothing about. Let's say you wanted to determine what percentage of coin flips will result in heads. If you flip it 10 times, you learn a little bit, but with such a small sample, it's very easy to misinterpret random variance/white noise (7 of the first 10 flips are heads) for actionable knowledge. If you flip it 50 times, the underlying signal may start to get a little stronger (29 of 50 flips are heads), but your statistical confidence that the results are repeatable remains low.

Sooner or later, as the below real-world experiment demonstrates, you reach a point where it just doesn't matter if your population is 500,000 or 50 million, your gains past a certain point are going to be incremental at best, and not worth the added cost, time, and error of polling more than the number of people necessary to satisfy statistical significance.



Will also say that - as a data scientist who has conducted and reviewed many a statistical test - UNF's Public Opinion Research Lab (the school's survey/polling center) is legitimately one of the best polling centers in the country. I think sometimes people see "UNF Poll" and think some wacky half-baked survey akin to a Twitter poll. If you look at independent analysis of the work they're doing, their methodology is as sound as it gets, as reflected by wildly low errors and biases. Really great, underrated resource to the community.

Skybox111

  • Newbie
  • *
  • Posts: 29
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #87 on: May 28, 2024, 10:41:06 PM »
Ah ok

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35031
    • Modern Cities
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #88 on: May 28, 2024, 11:41:56 PM »
I wasn't polled but the CBA is what I like most about the stadium deal. It provides additional quality of life benefits for the entire community that a stadium only deal would never come close to accomplishing.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

Jax_Developer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 598
Re: City unveils Jaguars stadium plan
« Reply #89 on: May 29, 2024, 07:45:10 AM »
The CBA is nothing more than feel good politics. The actual impact of the funds from the Jags will never be seen by 99.99% of people. The actual giving amount is less than $100M when inflation is factored in... so this magical $50M increase is not real but a nice big number that makes people feel better.

"The goal of the city's commitment, Weinstein said, was to leverage the Jaguars to increase their contribution from $100 million to $150 million."

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2024/05/29/jagaurs-jacksonville-deal.html

We also get to maintain 5500 parking spaces for 30 years, with virtually zero revenue from it. The annual amount the city will be paying every year to keep the terms of this agreement alive, will eclipse the $3M annual gift the Jags will write.  ;D