Second, has JTA ever claimed the U2C - either small AVs or driven vans - operate for special events in the Sports Complex? Is there any credibility there?
JTA's claims aside, the very idea seems to stretch credibility.
Using what we know about the system, and what we know about the existing technology, I think it's safe to assume that the Bay Street Corridor will employ:
- Approximately 10 AV clown cars
- With a capacity of approximately 10 clowns/car
- Going a max speed in mixed traffic of 10 mph
We also know that the loop is 3.2 miles long.
Which means that, with stops for loading and unloading, the U2C will probably average around 2 full loops per hour.
By my math, that gives the U2C as planned the ability to transport a scant 200 riders per hour, in a sports district that routinely hosts crowds of 65,000+.
By contrast, four standard JTA buses (65 capacity with standing room) doing the same loop at 30 mph, would probably average around 6 full loops per hour.
So, in the amount of time that it would take a fleet of clown cars to transport 200 people, four basic JTA buses could transport 1,560 passengers.
By my back of the napkin math, that's 680% more passengers moved per hour with four buses than with 10 clown cars.
If JTA were to run a SINGLE bus on the same 3.2 loop on gameday, it would take less than 20 minutes to fully move more passengers than an entire fleet of clown cars.
And that doesn't even account for the fact that the average bus costs around $500k, versus a network of clown cars tapped to cost literally one thousand times more ($500m+).
The very IDEA that this goofy system of microbuses classifies as "mass transportation" worthy of mass-transportation-like investment is utterly harebrained and delusional.
This system as designed couldn't even efficiently move attendees of a mid-sized conference at the Hyatt to the Sports District.
Everyone involved needs to be fired, and possibly institutionalized.
In that UNIVERSE does a quarter billion dollars in gas taxes come out of commuters pockets and go into funding a gaggle of half-baked JTA golf carts plodding between the brownfields, surface lots, grass fields, coffee factory, and prison.
In what fantasyland does this quote from JTA pass any kind of sanity test?
"That's why everyone is looking at us because when we make this work —and we will — all the other transit agencies will say, 'Okay, JTA wrote the playbook, we know how to put these into revenue service for ourselves.'"
Revenue service???
Who's downloading an app, attaching their credit card, figuring out how to hail a clown car, waiting up to 20 minutes for it to plod down the street, climbing atop the drug dealer's lap, trudging down Bay Street at 10 mph while angry vehicles sharing the road honk at them, and paying $5+ for the experience? When they've already got Uber and Lyft on their phones. Where are these FIFTY MILLION RIDES necessary for this thing to make economic sense coming from?
Seriously, who is the end user? I don't think I've ever seen JTA directly address this. Where is the demand for this 3.2 mile clown car loop coming from? What problem is it trying to solve?
The whole thing is just so clearly and empirically stupid that it blows my mind that sanity hasn’t won out yet and the U2C hasn’t been scrapped.
Doesn’t take a transportation expert to recognize that this is a historic boondoggle in the making.