I've been saying this for years, but I finally put some math to it.
- A basic Tesla 3 costs $38,000. If you purchased 50 of them you'd probably get a discount, but we'll just stick with the base price. Total cost, $1.9M
- For now you can hire 100 drivers to assist with operation of the cars throughout the week. As automation improves, drivers are gone. Total Cost, $4.5M
- Hire 8 managers at a cost of $110k. Generous, but JTA loves those high salaried employees. Total cost, $880k
- Hire 8 back office support staff with salaries averaging $75k. Total cost, $600k
- Hire a team of 4 mechanics with $60k salaries. Teslas don't even really need mechanics, but just in case. Total cost, $240k
- Hire a VP of the automation division and pay them a cush salary of $200k because why not?
- Hire 2 software coders to help with updates to the cars. Pay them each $90k. I don't think they'd be needed, but just in case. Total cost, $180k
- Finally, build a $5M facility for parking cars while not in use, repairs, back office facilities, and driver break rooms, training rooms, etc.
This can all be implemented for $5M in start up costs and annual labor costs of $6.4M. You could move over 1,000 people an hour (this is almost as much as all of JTA moves throughout the day based on the News4Jax piece. Apparently ridership is 20k a day). Add in 10 of the forthcoming tesla delivery vans for hauling people with large packages... add bike racks to all cars... cross train drivers to handle the vans.... $3M for a washing facility... Quadruple the budget and it still makes so much more sense than U2C.
Edit: This could be scaled up to replace JTA entirely, but for now it's just U2C. Factor in tax breaks for an all electric fleet and baby, we've got a stew going.
Had similar thoughts a few months back, but with buses instead of Teslas.
Different concept, but 1,000% same conclusion:
It is categorically INSANE that anyone finds a $500 million+, low-capacity, low-speed, pie-in-the-sky "transit network" to be a cost-efficient way of moving riders.
It's the transit equivalent of the guy at the college party who drops acid and then rambles incoherently about his plan to solve the conflict in the Middle East.
Some real Beautiful Mind bullshit.
Second, has JTA ever claimed the U2C - either small AVs or driven vans - operate for special events in the Sports Complex? Is there any credibility there?
JTA's claims aside, the very idea seems to stretch credibility.
Using what we know about the system, and what we know about the existing technology, I think it's safe to assume that the Bay Street Corridor will employ:
- Approximately 10 AV clown cars
- With a capacity of approximately 10 clowns/car
- Going a max speed in mixed traffic of 10 mph
We also know that the loop is 3.2 miles long.
Which means that, with stops for loading and unloading, the U2C will probably average around 2 full loops per hour.
By my math, that gives the U2C as planned the ability to transport a scant 200 riders per hour, in a sports district that routinely hosts crowds of 65,000+.
By contrast, four standard JTA buses (65 capacity with standing room) doing the same loop at 30 mph, would probably average around 6 full loops per hour.
So, in the amount of time that it would take a fleet of clown cars to transport 200 people, four basic JTA buses could transport 1,560 passengers.
By my back of the napkin math, that's 680% more passengers moved per hour with four buses than with 10 clown cars.
If JTA were to run a SINGLE bus on the same 3.2 loop on gameday, it would take less than 20 minutes to fully move more passengers than an entire fleet of clown cars.
And that doesn't even account for the fact that the average bus costs around $500k, versus a network of clown cars tapped to cost literally one thousand times more ($500m+).
The very IDEA that this goofy system of microbuses classifies as "mass transportation" worthy of mass-transportation-like investment is utterly harebrained and delusional.
This system as designed couldn't even efficiently move attendees of a mid-sized conference at the Hyatt to the Sports District.
Everyone involved needs to be fired, and possibly institutionalized.
