Author Topic: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future  (Read 42711 times)

jaxlongtimer

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #105 on: September 28, 2023, 06:04:23 PM »
Well, Downtown is finally #1 in something  8)!  Lowest parking rates of top 50 downtowns in the US.  I don't think DIA should be bragging about this indicator of demand for things Downtown.
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Jacksonville ranked No. 1 for cheapest daily parking and No. 2 for cheapest hourly parking, according to ParkMe.com, among the top 50 most popular U.S. cities on the platform.

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/09/28/parking-jax-cheap.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=JA&j=32864010&senddate=2023-09-28&empos=p5

fsu813

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #106 on: September 28, 2023, 06:22:21 PM »
They get criticized for having unreasonably expensive parking from time to time, so a response to that misnomer, I'd guess.

Ken_FSU

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #107 on: September 28, 2023, 07:31:58 PM »
Well, Downtown is finally #1 in something  8)!  Lowest parking rates of top 50 downtowns in the US.  I don't think DIA should be bragging about this indicator of demand for things Downtown.
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Jacksonville ranked No. 1 for cheapest daily parking and No. 2 for cheapest hourly parking, according to ParkMe.com, among the top 50 most popular U.S. cities on the platform.

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/09/28/parking-jax-cheap.html?utm_source=st&utm_medium=en&utm_campaign=ae&utm_content=JA&j=32864010&senddate=2023-09-28&empos=p5

Genuinely hilarious, and fundamentally ignorant the underlying laws of supply and demand, if the DIA is in any way bragging that Jacksonville has the lowest demand for parking of any of the Top 50 metros.

Captain Zissou

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #108 on: October 25, 2023, 04:05:15 PM »
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When it comes to getting people back downtown, Jacksonville is doing a poor job....

In Jacksonville, downtown visits are now 70% of their 2019 levels. By comparison, the national average is 74%. For further comparison, Jacksonville lags behind almost every major city in the Southeast, including its Florida neighbors of Tampa, Orlando and Miami....

Chapple urges city leaders to drill down, block by block, if necessary.

“Maybe there’s hotels or classic restaurants that have really kept going — don’t worry about those. Instead, identify the blocks that are dead and have a plan so they don’t become encampments,” she said. “It’s about working on those quality-of-life issues. During the pandemic, there was an enlivening of street space, an opening up of parklets. We need to continue along those lines to see a diversity of people around the clock in downtowns. And that means having the right kind of uses.”

https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2023/10/24/downtown-recovery-trends-local-jax.html

jaxlongtimer

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #109 on: October 25, 2023, 11:29:53 PM »
Since DIA considers the Southbank part of Downtown, I hear a major Southbank employer will soon be exiting for the suburbs, as well.  Not revealing names until they make it public.

heights unknown

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #110 on: October 26, 2023, 05:57:31 PM »
Since DIA considers the Southbank part of Downtown, I hear a major Southbank employer will soon be exiting for the suburbs, as well.  Not revealing names until they make it public.
Lori Boyer and Company need to "give up the ghost" and allow someone else to get the job done.
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marcuscnelson

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #111 on: October 26, 2023, 10:13:29 PM »
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Ken_FSU

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Captain Zissou

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #113 on: October 27, 2023, 01:39:39 PM »
I'm guessing the full $2B potential possible maybe someday over the next ten years plan for Gateway Jax is in that $8B number.  That project is no more in the "pipeline" than the fuddruckers at the landing.

Ken_FSU

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #114 on: October 27, 2023, 03:26:45 PM »
I'm guessing the full $2B potential possible maybe someday over the next ten years plan for Gateway Jax is in that $8B number.  That project is no more in the "pipeline" than the fuddruckers at the landing.

The $8 billion pipeline features such sure bets as the U2C, a fully built-out RiversEdge, the American Lions tower, the Hardwick, and may even include the stadium and surrounding development, if my math is correct.

For fun, I just read through all 8 DVI reports covering Curry's two terms in office.

Will post some more thoughts later, but at first glance, man is it damning holistically.

Particularly post-pandemic/second term.

Also, we all obviously know that these DVI reports are ultimately marketing pieces and not science, but boy does the math get fuzzy in some of these reports when you start looking at them sequentially.

Ken_FSU

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #115 on: October 28, 2023, 02:53:12 AM »
Quick response to David Bauerlein's piece here:

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2023/10/27/downtown-jacksonville-has-more-residents-coming/71315929007/

More specifically, a quick response to a few key quotes from the DVI.

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"The residential community is booming," Downtown Vision CEO Jake Gordon said.

Per the DVI's own report, the ENTIRETY of the "downtown" area that the DVI considers to be downtown (CBD, Lavilla, Sports District, Brooklyn, Southbank) added a grand total of 24 residential units in 2023. In terms of the entire Northbank (including the CBD and LaVilla), fewer than 170 units have been added over the last four years (2020-2023). In what universe does this constitute a "boom" in the residential community?

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The post-pandemic office market has emptied out space

Back in 2019, the downtown office market flipped the script when it had a lower vacancy rate than the suburbs. That year, the vacancy rate was 14.6% in downtown compared to 17.5% in the suburbs. It didn't last.

The office vacancy rate in downtown has climbed to 25.8% this year. It's 19.6% in the suburbs.

"The world has changed irrevocably, in my opinion, and people want to work from home," Gordon said.

Again, I hate to toss out a term like "gaslighting" casually, but in this case, one of two things has to be true:

1) The DVI is intentionally bending the truth.
2) The DVI is ignorant to reality.

Not sure which is worse.

I'm a data guy, and here are the hard numbers when comparing Jacksonville downtown office occupancy to the other major metros in the state. Notice how the bounce back has been starkly different for one particular metro.



It's not a cultural problem related to WFH/vacancy trends coming out of the pandemic.

It's a Jacksonville-specific problem.

If we break down pre-pandemic/post-pandemic changes in office vacancy rates for 2023 vs. 2020 in major Florida metros, it's pretty clear that we've got one outlier shitting the bed.



Last thing I'll mention is the $8 billion "pipeline," and why no sane person should take these numbers seriously.

Let's take a quick look at the DVI's pipeline vs. projects that actual cross the finish line, dating back to say, 2016. For what it's worth, this year's anemic "spike" in completed projects is almost exclusively the result of private developments like the Jags sports performance center, Wolfson's Critical Care Tower, and new headquarters for FIS and JEA.



If we look at the average pipeline over the last 8 years vs. the average annual completed projects, we see that, for the last EIGHT YEARS, we've had an average pipeline of $5 billion. Over that same period, we've had average annual completed of $300 million.



Long way of saying that, historically, only 5.8% of our fluff pipeline has turned into completed development.

Not trying to be negative, but I just don't know don't know how we sanely solve the problem if we're living in this fantasy land where things have never been better.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2023, 02:58:14 AM by Ken_FSU »

Jax_Developer

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #116 on: October 28, 2023, 08:23:08 AM »
Thank you for putting this together Ken. It really highlights some major issues I have been thinking, but couldn’t prove of course. The major problem we have, is the big shiny projects being the focus when really the economics need to be there for the smaller stuff too. We’re so office heavy downtown, that the office sector implosion has legitimately killed DT (on top of some poor management!).

I’m somewhat convinced that the rents in the Brooklyn & Southbank areas will need to rise significantly, to make the rents sustainable outside of these premium areas. In the LR, I bet DT loses most of its office space, outside of the high rise towers and a few select buildings.

thelakelander

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #117 on: October 28, 2023, 10:27:29 AM »
Per the DVI's own report, the ENTIRETY of the "downtown" area that the DVI considers to be downtown (CBD, Lavilla, Sports District, Brooklyn, Southbank) added a grand total of 24 residential units in 2023. In terms of the entire Northbank (including the CBD and LaVilla), fewer than 170 units have been added over the last four years (2020-2023). In what universe does this constitute a "boom" in the residential community?

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It's not a cultural problem related to WFH/vacancy trends coming out of the pandemic.

It's a Jacksonville-specific problem.

If we break down pre-pandemic/post-pandemic changes in office vacancy rates for 2023 vs. 2020 in major Florida metros, it's pretty clear that we've got one outlier shitting the bed.

Quote
If we look at the average pipeline over the last 8 years vs. the average annual completed projects, we see that, for the last EIGHT YEARS, we've had an average pipeline of $5 billion. Over that same period, we've had average annual completed of $300 million.

Long way of saying that, historically, only 5.8% of our fluff pipeline has turned into completed development.

Not trying to be negative, but I just don't know don't know how we sanely solve the problem if we're living in this fantasy land where things have never been better.

Great analysis. We have a problem and its pretty evident to anyone who has traveled to just about any downtown outside of Jacksonville in recent years. Periodic concerts hosted on a vacant lot formerly known as the Landing, is going to change that. However, the best thing to do is what's bolded in red. You can't adequately address the problem if you're not willing to admit it. Luckily, one of the most needed moves to flip the apple cart in a different direction just happened. Now its time to go to work to fix the damage.
« Last Edit: October 28, 2023, 10:29:52 AM by thelakelander »
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Ken_FSU

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #118 on: October 28, 2023, 12:12:11 PM »
The major problem we have, is the big shiny projects being the focus when really the economics need to be there for the smaller stuff too.

Bingo. When you strip out all the fluff from Brooklyn/Riverside that the DVI uses to pad the numbers, you can see how bleak new retail additions have been downtown under Curry's administration. I'm not even sure that Bread & Board and Jumpin Jax should count, because absent heavy incentives from their landlords, they wouldn't have been built.

Of the 5 retail additions in the CBD in the last three years, four of them are practically just storefront countertops. Contrast that with losing Olio, Zodiak, Mag's, Jacob's, 1904, etc., and it truly is a net loss. To your point, I think the evidence certainly speaks to Curry and DIA failing to bring small business to the city center.



However, the best thing to do is what's bolded in red. You can't adequately address the problem if you're not willing to admit it.

Fingers crossed we are honest with ourselves, admit where we're starting from with the CBD specifically, and go about fixing it properly under this new administration.

Reading stuff like this from a city-backed report is pretty scary, as it's just flagrantly dishonest.



Charles Hunter

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Re: The Downtown Investment Authority's Future
« Reply #119 on: October 28, 2023, 12:48:58 PM »
Ken - how many of the establishments in your chart are now closed?