"Downtowns To Be Hollowed Out"

[jaxlongtimer]

Interesting quote on the future of downtowns from Warren Buffet's lifelong co-partner, Charlie Munger, this weekend at Berkshire's annual meeting:

"The hollowing out of the downtowns in the United States and elsewhere in the world is going to be quite significant and quite unpleasant."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/buffett-munger-berkshire-meeting-banks-real-estate-musk-ai-dollar-2023-5

[Florida Power And Light]

Gosh- just imagine a SE Waterfront Downtown on a major waterway.....with almost two hundred acres of public ownership.....( the acreage has since or will dwindle)

[simms3]

The blame for this falls on both public and private leaders.

Everyone is touting "work from home" still, and public policy leaders are still talking like we are in the midst of the world's worst pandemic (and it was never the world's worst pandemic).

It's all about isolation and fear, and a lot of it is actually about "global climate change" and "sustainability".  I'm tired of cowards and spineless idiots running everything.

Even in our own city it's all about "residents residents residents" and nobody is even attempting to try to get more office workers downtown.  Vystar moving its employees downtown and creating that "campus" has done so much more than all of the apartment projects combined.  Downtown used to have 51,000-75,000 workers in its heyday, and yet with most of that hollowed out now the city leaders are trying to attract 10,000 residents (over 4 square miles).

Come on now, let's not be that dumb.  We don't have to single out one thing to pursue - we can pursue a robust downtown office environment with many tens of thousands of workers AND we can pursue residents.  In fact, in growing cities with growing traffic concerns, residents tend to want to locate near their JOBS, and so it actually behooves city leaders to try to get business back to downtown and working from the office in order to bolster the drive to attract more residents.  But nobody is talking about it!

On the private sector side, you have large publicly traded real estate services firms pushing work-from-home/"hybrid" solutions as well as designing office space for the future that is so undesirable for workers that they won't come in anyway (self-fulfilling prophesy).  You have a large tech firm in town (FIS) with the highest paid workers, a brand new HQ filled with amenities, and all the levers of power with the company (where else will those workers go in Jax), and yet the leaders of that company don't demand that those workers come in.

I just went on a tour of that building and they said on a good day it's 35% full.  When we were there on a Friday, it might have been 3-5%.  It was so pathetic.

Just thinking of the Southern Grounds/Cronk Dutch/Danis project across the street...if I were them I'd be a little leery.  I suppose with the apartments coming in it will be ok, but you could literally have thousands of office workers too right on the same block and yet the leaders of those companies don't bring their workers into their brand new offices, which we the taxpayer helped subsidize!

It's just incredible how fast our "leaders" of all types and in public and private life are leading us all off a cliff.

[Adam White]

You have a large tech firm in town (FIS) with the highest paid workers, a brand new HQ filled with amenities, and all the levers of power with the company (where else will those workers go in Jax), and yet the leaders of that company don't demand that those workers come in.

Why should they come in? If the job can be done from home, why should workers have to come into an office? Just to help your bottom line?

[Jax_Developer]

The St. Johns Town Center area has had some ill intended effects on the DT workforce & the Arlington shopping area. I feel like it's hard to attract the heavier in-office type uses DT compared to St Johns with all the retail and dining nearby. In some ways, the aggregation of a lot of the Class A space in town has killed other spots..

Ofc, Town Center wasn't really intended to do that but here we are now. I agree that there needs to be more of a focus on filling up DT with business.. the vacancy & lack of use that exists DT damages the credibility of the city as a whole to attract higher paying jobs. Most of the large firms here, have been in town for a while.. not that much new to speak of other than the in the industrial sector.

[Ken_FSU]

Why should they come in? If the job can be done from home, why should workers have to come into an office? Just to help your bottom line?

Feel free to call me a dinosaur, but - with the obvious qualifier that every business and individual is different - I don't think widespread WFH is a sustainable business model in the long run. For as long as any of us can remember, our country's economic growth has been driven by people getting up in the morning, going to their workplace, and directly interfacing with, learning from, and growing beside their peers. The cornerstone of successful business has always been forging meaningful interpersonal relationships.

Conversely, during the pandemic, we saw college graduates literally start their first day on the job pantsless at their kitchen table. There's no universe where the growth trajectory from someone working from their home over Zoom 3-5 days a week is going to come close to someone working in-office alongside people with more experience and stronger skills than they currently possess.

I don't doubt the basic job can be done from home, I do doubt that it can be done as well when managers are only interacting with their direct reports twice a month in person. Short term over the next few years, we may not see a huge difference in productivity from widespread WFH. Longer term, I think our growth as a nation stalls, GDP slows dramatically, innovation decelerates, and the overall workforce becomes dumbed down.

Others may strongly disagree, but - with AI coming for so many hard skills, and soft skills (networking, conflict resolution, collaboration) becoming increasingly important deciders for hirings and firings - I'd urge anyone in the infancy of their professional career to take every opportunity possible to get into the office, watch others work, ask questions, and offer to jump in to help. You'll get a leg up on the rest of the field. Much faster than anyone imagined, blue collar jobs are starting to look more secure long-run than the white collar jobs (five times higher unemployment claims https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unemployment-payments-rising-five-times-194356039.html). Don't make yourself a forgettable afterthought.

All that said, there are obviously much, much larger conversations that could be had about the role of work in life, environmental impact of commuting, transportation inequality, universal basic income, broad capitalism, and all that other fun stuff. And they're good debates to have, because no one looks back on their life from their deathbed and says, "if only the GDP had increased by $2.35 trillion in 2025 instead of $2.15 trillion." Historically, they're also the types of debates that seem much more lively and important at 3.0% unemployment than 8%.

tl;dr - Short-term productivity gains from WFH will be offset by long-term economic losses.  Growth and innovation don't come from people executing static tasks in a vacuum.

[Adam White]

Why should they come in? If the job can be done from home, why should workers have to come into an office? Just to help your bottom line?

Feel free to call me a dinosaur, but - with the obvious qualifier that every business and individual is different - I don't think widespread WFH is a sustainable business model in the long run. For as long as any of us can remember, our country's economic growth has been driven by people getting up in the morning, going to their workplace, and directly interfacing with, learning from, and growing beside their peers. The cornerstone of successful business has always been forging meaningful interpersonal relationships.

Conversely, during the pandemic, we saw college graduates literally start their first day on the job pantsless at their kitchen table. There's no universe where the growth trajectory from someone working from their home over Zoom 3-5 days a week is going to come close to someone working in-office alongside people with more experience and stronger skills than they currently possess.

I don't doubt the basic job can be done from home, I do doubt that it can be done as well when managers are only interacting with their direct reports twice a month in person. Short term over the next few years, we may not see a huge difference in productivity from widespread WFH. Longer term, I think our growth as a nation stalls, GDP slows dramatically, innovation decelerates, and the overall workforce becomes dumbed down.

Others may strongly disagree, but - with AI coming for so many hard skills, and soft skills (networking, conflict resolution, collaboration) becoming increasingly important deciders for hirings and firings - I'd urge anyone in the infancy of their professional career to take every opportunity possible to get into the office, watch others work, ask questions, and offer to jump in to help. You'll get a leg up on the rest of the field. Much faster than anyone imagined, blue collar jobs are starting to look more secure long-run than the white collar jobs (five times higher unemployment claims https://finance.yahoo.com/video/unemployment-payments-rising-five-times-194356039.html). Don't make yourself a forgettable afterthought.

All that said, there are obviously much, much larger conversations that could be had about the role of work in life, environmental impact of commuting, transportation inequality, universal basic income, broad capitalism, and all that other fun stuff. And they're good debates to have, because no one looks back on their life from their deathbed and says, "if only the GDP had increased by $2.35 trillion in 2025 instead of $2.15 trillion." Historically, they're also the types of debates that seem much more lively and important at 3.0% unemployment than 8%.

tl;dr - Short-term productivity gains from WFH will be offset by long-term economic losses.  Growth and innovation don't come from people executing static tasks in a vacuum.

Yeah, I think you're a dinosaur.

I'm not saying there aren't jobs that benefit from people being in the same space. But the argument I hear more is one about the detrimental effect this is going to have on other aspects of the economy - basically, it's going to hurt people/companies that have profited from people being going into an office daily.

COVID was a disruptor. For years we've been hearing about how technology was going to allow us flexibility, etc. But very few employers had the guts to actually do it. Then they had to and it worked in many cases.

All of this reminds me of when the record companies started complaining about MP3s and the rise of file sharing. The old model no longer worked and the people who had been making a killing off that model had to figure out a way to adapt or they went under.

You can't stop progress.

[acme54321]

It works some places but not others.  My company definitely sees less productivity when people are "working" from home.

[thelakelander]

Downtown will have to continue evolve. The days of local Fortune 500 companies building skyscrapers and occupying large blocks of office space are likely over for DT Jax. Barnett Bank,  Independent Life, Gulf Life, Florida National Bank, Charter aren't coming back. There will always be a need for office space but not as much as companies needed in the 1980s. We'll need to adapt and back fill space with other uses and activities. Housing and hotel units are two that come to mind. This is another reason we need to think twice about moving administrative offices of our public entities outside of the downtown core. Those are thousands of downtown jobs we have direct control over. If we aren't willing to make a commitment to downtown by keeping our public operations in the core, then definitely don't expect the private sector to pick up the slack.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ There is another component to a great Downtown that we are not discussing much.... tourism.  This would support more hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues. 

A driver of tourism (and Downtown living) should be our riverfront and other green spaces along with our cultural institutions such as the theaters, performing arts groups, museums, musical (above and beyond the jazz fest) and multi-cultural events*, etc.  City leaders don't seem to talk much about these contributors and how they could boost the urban core, especially compared to sporting events.  Another missed opportunity.

*I have been to cities that have major events at least once a month.  It is another reason to have expanded green spaces.

[Adam White]

It works some places but not others.  My company definitely sees less productivity when people are "working" from home.

Yes - and each company has to decide what works best for it. A one-size-fits-all approach is not the solution. I find it odd that so many worship the 'free market' yet get angry when the market does something they don't agree with.

[vicupstate]

^ There is another component to a great Downtown that we are not discussing much.... tourism.  This would support more hotels, restaurants and entertainment venues. 

A driver of tourism (and Downtown living) should be our riverfront and other green spaces along with our cultural institutions such as the theaters, performing arts groups, museums, musical (above and beyond the jazz fest) and multi-cultural events*, etc.  City leaders don't seem to talk much about these contributors and how they could boost the urban core, especially compared to sporting events.  Another missed opportunity.

*I have been to cities that have major events at least once a month.  It is another reason to have expanded green spaces.

I agree. DT JAX was stagnate when there were 50-60k jobs DT and refilling office buildings alone will not reverse that.  Build a DT that people won't to visit and you will inherently build a place where people want to live as well.  See Chattanooga, Charleston, Greenville for examples. Charlotte had tons of office buildings but DT was one dimensional until the nightlife/residential components were added. 

[thelakelander]

Yes! Basically implement the successful revitalization strategies that most other places have already done. There's no need to recreate the wheel, which Jax has always gravitated to with downtown.

[simms3]

Ken_FSU - I wholeheartedly agree with you.

Adam White - I think you must be one of those people who believes whatever the "new thing" that the "experts" are touting must be the way we just have to go now, and it's for the better because the "experts" have led us into this direction.  Well I hate to break it to you, but most people, expert or not, are followers, and especially today more than ever in recent history people lack spines and common sense.  And it is certainly true that the "elite classes" of "experts" have led whole civilizations off of a cliff before.  Don't think it can't happen to our modern society.  It's clear to me that a lot of what we are doing today is civilization destroying stuff in the long run (and how long is that run if we don't reverse course).

Also, you seem to misunderstand dynamics today.  There are those of us who have woken up over the past 10-15 years to realize that the "free market" isn't something to be worshiped at all costs.  There might be some 1990s style Republicans left in today's US Senate rejoicing at the end of Title 42 so more cheap labor can come in to their big business donors, literally further gutting out working class American citizens, however, there are those of us who are POPULIST conservatives who don't believe that anything and everything big business does is par excellence.

No, I do not support MOST of what American Big Business is pushing these days, and I work for a very big F150 business myself and am keenly aware of all the World Economic Forum bullsh*t running the policies of my own firm now, and no I do not support this stuff in the least sense.

Work From Home is a concept being driven to eventually get people to simply drive less.  They do not want people driving in cars to places.  This is the actual truth of it all.  They also do prefer people to be more isolated, and they want people afraid - afraid of viruses and afraid the planet is going to overheat and kill us all.  It's a basic control mechanism at the end of the day and it is having disastrous effects on once thriving downtowns (and on us).

[heights unknown]

Ken_FSU - I wholeheartedly agree with you.

Adam White - I think you must be one of those people who believes whatever the "new thing" that the "experts" are touting must be the way we just have to go now, and it's for the better because the "experts" have led us into this direction.  Well I hate to break it to you, but most people, expert or not, are followers, and especially today more than ever in recent history people lack spines and common sense.  And it is certainly true that the "elite classes" of "experts" have led whole civilizations off of a cliff before.  Don't think it can't happen to our modern society.  It's clear to me that a lot of what we are doing today is civilization destroying stuff in the long run (and how long is that run if we don't reverse course).

Also, you seem to misunderstand dynamics today.  There are those of us who have woken up over the past 10-15 years to realize that the "free market" isn't something to be worshiped at all costs.  There might be some 1990s style Republicans left in today's US Senate rejoicing at the end of Title 42 so more cheap labor can come in to their big business donors, literally further gutting out working class American citizens, however, there are those of us who are POPULIST conservatives who don't believe that anything and everything big business does is par excellence.

No, I do not support MOST of what American Big Business is pushing these days, and I work for a very big F150 business myself and am keenly aware of all the World Economic Forum bullsh*t running the policies of my own firm now, and no I do not support this stuff in the least sense.

Work From Home is a concept being driven to eventually get people to simply drive less.  They do not want people driving in cars to places.  This is the actual truth of it all.  They also do prefer people to be more isolated, and they want people afraid - afraid of viruses and afraid the planet is going to overheat and kill us all.  It's a basic control mechanism at the end of the day and it is having disastrous effects on once thriving downtowns (and on us).

Bravo, bravo!