Daniel Davis wants to relocate the jail in his first term, if elected

[fsu813]

^Even it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost to turn the jail into an empty lot.

The jail being an empty lot would ironically increase the property values of everything nearby. Can't say that about any other property in town.

The 5 homeless shelters in Downtown are in the same category. It's the collective impact that the jail and shelters have had on the Northbank which have driven down values vs the Southbank. Definitely not a coincidence all are one side of the river, zero are on the other side.

[Jax_Developer]

You keep asserting that crime is higher in the immediate vicinity of the jail and police station. The time has come to provide some data to back up your claim. Numbers. Not anecdotes. Not feelings of downtown, or non-downtown, residents. Numbers.

https://www.crimemapping.com/map/fl/jacksonville

Look at any date range, you will find a concentration of reported crime within 2 blocks of the jail.

I understand your perspective, but the catalyst of everything mentioned is the jail. The reason the area surrounding the JAGS is so depressed is because it's separated from the DT. You can literally go in any direction.. Southbank, towards Springfield, Brooklyn, LaVilla.. all of those area's have had or are vibrant areas today in comparison to that long stretch of land near the jail. Goto any other city with a DT sports complex, I guarantee you won't find any environment like JAX. It's truly one of a kind.

https://investdtjax.com/tools-resources/development-map/

There is literally a three block by five block area of emptiness. The Southbank being nice, Brooklyn being nice today, are not random and happened because there was enough of a buffer from a jail to stir investment. All the big residential buildings on the Southbank are less than 20-25 years old. There should be no reason (other than the jail) for the Southbank being valued 50% more than the Northbank today. In standard DT's, the "central core" is the most expensive real estate in town. No fortune 500 business is setting up shop next to a jail in Jacksonville. No developer is building condos, or apartments near a jail in Jacksonville. You can see this exact trend all up & down the east coast. Baltimore has great articles on how much sheer opportunity has been wasted. The same is true here. It is decades long. It's so deep that other issues have become seemingly the "issue" when the "issue" is the lack of local interest & outside investment. But of course, not in the Southbank or Brooklyn or even in the main central core area, only in this subregion of DT. Everywhere else seems to have activity & redevelopment, except near the Jail. The Jail has city-funded projects and 5-10 year long RFP's in the hopes something changes. Because, "the numbers don't work."

Relating an infrastructure project to this is a little cheese but nonetheless I would also say a functional transit system would likely have a larger impact than removing the jail. But, we don't have a functional transit system & we have a flawed plan. So it's hard to say that it would actually be better in its current form. Why did they need to remove that ramp? I can flip the question right back. Other cities have overpass ramps in urban areas with plenty of vibrancy to come with it. Could it be due to the jail being right there? I'd also argue the "crime" with the landing probably had something to do with a jail being 3 blocks away.

At the end of the day, companies & firms are not willing to take the risk in this large swath of DT. This isn't a question, it's a fact by what exists there now. Other firms investing in the central core & sports district are thinking one of the following:

1). We should take incentives to significantly reduce our risk. And if it all works out, we will really make out.
2). We strongly believe the jail will be gone in 5-10 years time.
3). The project works, but it would be even better with the removal of the jail.

But again, 95% of companies will literally not build or put together a site within X distance of a jail or prison.

There are empty lots all over the Northbank, Southbank, Lavilla, and Brooklyn... why not focus on developing those areas instead?

They are either privately owned, or lack the economic viability to build.

[Jax_Developer]

^Even it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost to turn the jail into an empty lot.

The jail being an empty lot would ironically increase the property values of everything nearby. Can't say that about any other property in town.

The 5 homeless shelters in Downtown are in the same category. It's the collective impact that the jail and shelters have had on the Northbank which have driven down values vs the Southbank. Definitely not a coincidence all are one side of the river, zero are on the other side.

Exactly. Bail bond businesses too. The effect is almost generational at this point.

[thelakelander]

Broward County jail is not apples to apples. Hence why I brought up Baltimore. Broward County Jail is not in the central district, nor does it disprove most of what I said.

I'm specifically talking about this Broward County Jail. The location is identified with a red star.

Broward County jail has a price effect of almost a 40-50% depression compared to properties literally less than 0.25 miles away across the River. If anything, that example only adds to my argument. Also take a look around the Jail, other than a Publix and a subway, its a franchise-less area of DT Ft Lauderdale. That's nuts if you think about it.

I was never debating price effects of property values around a jail and contaminated industrial district verses a place that has economically benefited for privileged public policy and investment for more than a century.

I'm seriously questioning the need to spend a minimum of $400 million in public money (in the name of downtown revitalization) as a sound revitalization strategy or top revitalization priority. My basic point is that if we have $400 to $700 million in tax money to spend in the name of downtown revitalization, it's better spent elsewhere. Fort Lauderdale has proven this. That downtown has dramatically changed for the better, in spite of the jail nearly being in the middle of it.

Baltimore's jail isn't a good apples to apples comparison. That city has continuously lost population for more than 70 years. Nevertheless, the metropolitan area is significantly larger and it is still significantly denser. The neighborhoods to the northeast and northwest of downtown Baltimore would scare the bejesus out of Jax folk and downtown advocates that believe the jail is a major reason for downtown not being vibrant. There's a lot of stuff going on in and around urban Baltimore economically that Jax luckily does not have to deal with. The best thing we can learn from that city is the benefit of clustering, complementing uses within a compact setting. The Inner Harbor is a great example of that. Unfortunately, it's basically the opposite of what we continue to attempt to do (excluding the area NW of city hall).

I digress, but this isn't a talking point and it should never be treated as such. It's a dis-service to the dozens of projects nearby and the billions of cumulative funds that have been poured into this area leaving half the city on septic with no sidewalks.

I've only questioned this potential jail expenditure, as a downtown revitalization priority. You've just opened up another can of worms with this post. Yes, if we have $400 million to $700 million to move a structurally sound facility that was built in 1991, is that not a dis-service to residents throughout the city where basic infrastructure and services are still lacking?

[thelakelander]

^Even it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost to turn the jail into an empty lot.

The jail being an empty lot would ironically increase the property values of everything nearby. Can't say that about any other property in town.

Tell this to the resident in an area of town like Northwest Jax, that still lacks infrastructure promised prior to consolidation. We'd rather spend $400 million (their tax money) on one site, to ironically increase the property values of the blocks surrounding it (for the development community to benefit), rather than fund sidewalks, light streets, fix drainage, septic, etc. Most would probably say that our priorities are completely out of wack.

[thelakelander]

^Even it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost to turn the jail into an empty lot.

The jail being an empty lot would ironically increase the property values of everything nearby. Can't say that about any other property in town.

The 5 homeless shelters in Downtown are in the same category. It's the collective impact that the jail and shelters have had on the Northbank which have driven down values vs the Southbank. Definitely not a coincidence all are one side of the river, zero are on the other side.

We can jump in systemic discriminatory policy in this town, if we'd like. I'm well versed in its history and totally understand how that has impacted property values. However, I'm really failing to see why this (spending $400 million to move the jail) should be considered a top downtown revitalization strategy. We're not the only community in the country with homeless shelters, jails, etc. located in or near the central business district. These aren't the core reasons that Downtown Jax is not vibrant. The first thing we can start with is the 4th Floor of city hall.

[Jax_Developer]

If we in basic agree that the Berkman is price depressed by about 40% to be safe in this estimate... and that central districts are "supposed" to be valued higher than the outskirts of DT, as supported by your map.

There are 209 condo units with 20 townhomes. The condos sell for $300k-$450k for the 1 & 2 bedroom units which are the majority of the building. For simplicity, I won't factor in the PH units.

So 209 units, with an easy $150k bump to the valuation per unit. Lets say the townhomes only modestly increase maybe $200k in value.

That's $33-34M in total value in today's dollars. Annually, thats $600k in property taxes today. So take that over 20 years. (For simplicity, I won't factor in appreciation or inflation, although the inflation has outpaced appreciation at this site). We come to a whopping $12M in lost tax revenue at one site for 20 years. That's being conservative about the numbers too. The Berkman has actually lost value in the time since it has opened, even though the market has almost doubled in other markets since.

Now take that across several parcels, and multiply it over 20 years. That annual tax number could finance a facility easily..

A new jail won't cost $700M in flat out cash. There are obvious ways for the city to capitalize on selling 10 acres of prime DT real estate, with the city also happening to be the largest beneficiary of all the adjacent land raising in value since they own all of it.

So, obtain a capital stack from the sale, and model out the increased tax revenue that WILL be produced from the move. It's not a hypothetical, like a lot of other plunged money DT.

--

I'd flip the script right back and say.. Are you comfortable with being ripped off by the trio package? Is that the right thing to do for the people of JAX? What's the auxiliary benefit of the Trio package? Oh, it is literally negative. You can't even place a number on the negative aspects that the Jail brings. Again, check the crime map, I'm not talking about my feelings, just cold hard reporting figures. What monetary value would you place on the negative social climate that the jail has brought?

--

And Baltimore is an extremely accurate comparison. DT JAX has had population decline for probably a comparable amount of time. Want to know whats on the other side of the Baltimore complex? Johns Hopkins.. a top 10 hospital in the country and a top 20 university in the country. We have a one of the only billion dollar businesses in JAX as ours. I'd argue that's way more comparable than the Ft. Lauderdale example with nothing of substance on the other side of it other than other county/city uses. Ft. Lauderdale also being a wealthy market, unlike DT Jax & Baltimore.

[fsu813]

^Even it is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost to turn the jail into an empty lot.

The jail being an empty lot would ironically increase the property values of everything nearby. Can't say that about any other property in town.

Tell this to the resident in an area of town like Northwest Jax, that still lacks infrastructure promised prior to consolidation. We'd rather spend $400 million (their tax money) on one site, to ironically increase the property values of the blocks surrounding it (for the development community to benefit), rather than fund sidewalks, light streets, fix drainage, septic, etc. Most would probably say that our priorities are completely out of wack.

A very valid point.

[thelakelander]

If we in basic agree that the Berkman is price depressed by about 40% to be safe in this estimate... and that central districts are "supposed" to be valued higher than the outskirts of DT, as supported by your map.

There are 209 condo units with 20 townhomes. The condos sell for $300k-$450k for the 1 & 2 bedroom units which are the majority of the building. For simplicity, I won't factor in the PH units.

So 209 units, with an easy $150k bump to the valuation per unit. Lets say the townhomes only modestly increase maybe $200k in value.

That's $33-34M in total value in today's dollars. Annually, thats $600k in property taxes today. So take that over 20 years. (For simplicity, I won't factor in appreciation or inflation, although the inflation has outpaced appreciation at this site). We come to a whopping $12M in lost tax revenue at one site for 20 years. That's being conservative about the numbers too. The Berkman has actually lost value in the time since it has opened, even though the market has almost doubled in other markets since.

Now take that across several parcels, and multiply it over 20 years. That annual tax number could finance a facility easily..

The Berkman is on the edge of the historic central business district. It's in an abandoned maritime industrial district. I don't view the Berkman or its property values as a major downtown revitalization priority. I'm failing to see why we need to spend a considerable sum of money on the jail to increase the Berkman's values over a million other pressing needs throughout the city.

A new jail won't cost $700M in flat out cash. There are obvious ways for the city to capitalize on selling 10 acres of prime DT real estate, with the city also happening to be the largest beneficiary of all the adjacent land raising in value since they own all of it.

So, obtain a capital stack from the sale, and model out the increased tax revenue that WILL be produced from the move. It's not a hypothetical, like a lot of other plunged money DT.

Same strategy with LaVilla, The Landing, City Hall Annex, the old Duval County Courthouse, etc. We've been there, done that, and still have the vacant lots and quiet downtown to show for the millions invested to clear out places decades ago. What's wrong with investing in strategies we know that have worked for countless of the other communities across the country.

I'd flip the script right back and say.. Are you comfortable with being ripped off by the trio package? Is that the right thing to do for the people of JAX? What's the auxiliary benefit of the Trio package? Oh, it is literally negative.

I rather not get ripped off on either the Trio or moving the jail prematurely.

You can't even place a number on the negative aspects that the Jail brings. Again, check the crime map, I'm not talking about my feelings, just cold hard reporting figures. What monetary value would you place on the negative social climate that the jail has brought?

Can you post a link to the crime map?

And Baltimore is an extremely accurate comparison. DT JAX has had population decline for probably a comparable amount of time. Want to know whats on the other side of the Baltimore complex? Johns Hopkins.. a top 10 hospital in the country and a top 20 university in the country.

We have a one of the only billion dollar businesses in JAX as ours. I'd argue that's way more comparable than the Ft. Lauderdale example with nothing of substance on the other side of it other than other county/city uses. Ft. Lauderdale also being a wealthy market, unlike DT Jax & Baltimore.

You ever walk the streets or through the housing projects around Johns Hopkins? Do you remember what that was like during the height of the crack cocaine epidemic? I do. Do you know the history of those neighborhoods? How does that compare with East Bay's development and social pattern? That place is different animal altogether.

[Jax_Developer]

The Berkman is an amazing comparison, due to it being the location of the old jail, and for it being an almost 1:1 product compared to those units in the Peninsula. In my job, these types of 1:1 comparisons are extremely hard to come by in such an immediate area. The value of the Berkman is not something to fix, rather it is the result of failed economic policy.

--

All of those former sites pale in comparison to the negative effects of a DT jail. The reasoning there is a sunk cost fallacy.. "because we already did this, we shouldn't do this." In reality, a lot of those other sites should not have been demolished, in lieu of the jail.

--

Posted it prior but here it is again. (https://www.jaxsheriff.org/Resources/crime-mapping.aspx)

--

My only point in brining up Baltimore is that it is pretty similar to Jacksonville, in terms of the actual DT city dynamic. Obviously differences exist, however Baltimore is a historic port city, just like JAX. There are a ton of similarities. One of them being, the big question of what would have happened to the entire DT region without a DT jail? Likely the development pattern between DT & the prison complex wouldn't be as bad as it is today.

--

Here are some links:

https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/if-investing-move-baltimore-s-downtown-prison/218506/

https://ggwash.org/view/33515/to-revive-downtown-baltimore-get-rid-of-its-downtown-jail

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/10/16/22643149/why-utah-moved-its-prison-again-prime-real-estate-about-to-be-set-free-draper-mayor-corner-canyon

(Paid Articles on Ft. Lauderdale)

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2019/10/25/time-to-free-up-prime-waterfront-spot-now-occupied-by-jail-experts-say/

All of these different metro's having similar "talking points" to me isn't a coincidence and there are several people much more on it than me that could explain the full breath of effects better than I could. Nonetheless, I maintain this isn't a BS conversation and its worth the debate. This is one item I will support Davis on.

[Jax_Developer]

The Berkman is an amazing comparison, due to it being the location of the old jail, and for it being an almost 1:1 product compared to those units in the Peninsula. In my job, these types of 1:1 comparisons are extremely hard to come by in such an immediate area. The value of the Berkman is not something to fix, rather it is the result of failed economic policy.

--

All of those former sites pale in comparison to the negative effects of a DT jail. The reasoning there is a sunk cost fallacy.. "because we already did this, we shouldn't do this." In reality, a lot of those other sites should not have been demolished, in lieu of the jail.

--

Posted it prior but here it is again. (https://www.jaxsheriff.org/Resources/crime-mapping.aspx)

--

My only point in brining up Baltimore is that it is pretty similar to Jacksonville, in terms of the actual DT city dynamic. Obviously differences exist, however Baltimore is a historic port city, just like JAX. There are a ton of similarities. One of them being, the big question of what would have happened to the entire DT region without a DT jail? Likely the development pattern between DT & the prison complex wouldn't be as bad as it is today.

--

Here are some links:

https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/if-investing-move-baltimore-s-downtown-prison/218506/

https://ggwash.org/view/33515/to-revive-downtown-baltimore-get-rid-of-its-downtown-jail

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/10/16/22643149/why-utah-moved-its-prison-again-prime-real-estate-about-to-be-set-free-draper-mayor-corner-canyon

(Paid Articles on Ft. Lauderdale)

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2019/10/25/time-to-free-up-prime-waterfront-spot-now-occupied-by-jail-experts-say/

All of these different metro's having similar "talking points" to me isn't a coincidence and there are several people much more on it than me that could explain the full breath of effects better than I could. Nonetheless, I maintain this isn't a BS conversation and its worth the debate. This is one item I will support Davis on.

From 4-10-23 to 5-7-23, more than 40% of all central core crime was located on the exact block of the Jail. (24 out of 55 reported crimes). That tells the story much better than I could.

Or from 2-7-23 to 5-7-23, more than 40%, almost 50%.. (85 out of 173 reported crimes).

So I think I have overcome any burden of proof.

[thelakelander]

Posted it prior but here it is again. (https://www.jaxsheriff.org/Resources/crime-mapping.aspx)

Unless I'm reading the linked map wrong, they are also reporting incidents inside the jail and JSO's building.

After all this, I'm still failing to see why moving the jail should be a higher priority than other downtown revitalization needs and living up to the promises made to other neighborhoods to provide basic services.

[Jax_Developer]

It groups those in, but there are also dozens & dozens of crimes that are not happening in the jail as well. And I’m extremely confident there are crimes elsewhere downtown that can be contributed to releases from the jail. Is there absolutely nothing in all those links that heavily correlates with what were seeing here in JAX? I’ve yet to hear one compelling argument in my counter, with the one exception being the actual state of the prison might not needing immediate replacement. Even better to me, create a plan to move it by X date. Sorry but your side of the argument has really not substantiated any economic or social resources that contribute to yall’s points.

Again, what price do you put on the thousand of excess crimes that have occurred over 20 years that didn’t need to occur? Or are you claiming the crime rate in a hyper local area here vs the rural westside/northside would be the same from one of the largest DT jails in the entire country? Which part am I missing..

[thelakelander]

My only point in brining up Baltimore is that it is pretty similar to Jacksonville, in terms of the actual DT city dynamic. Obviously differences exist, however Baltimore is a historic port city, just like JAX. There are a ton of similarities. One of them being, the big question of what would have happened to the entire DT region without a DT jail? Likely the development pattern between DT & the prison complex wouldn't be as bad as it is today.

Baltimore's jail has been in that location since the early 19th century. There are also thousands of public housing units and other correctional facilities in the immediate vicinity. We'll have to agree to disagree on the commonalities between the placement of Baltimore's correctional facilities in comparison with the 32-year-old Duval County Jail.

Here are some links:

https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/ex/sustainablecitiescollective/if-investing-move-baltimore-s-downtown-prison/218506/

https://ggwash.org/view/33515/to-revive-downtown-baltimore-get-rid-of-its-downtown-jail

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/10/16/22643149/why-utah-moved-its-prison-again-prime-real-estate-about-to-be-set-free-draper-mayor-corner-canyon

(Paid Articles on Ft. Lauderdale)

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2019/10/25/time-to-free-up-prime-waterfront-spot-now-occupied-by-jail-experts-say/

All of these different metro's having similar "talking points" to me isn't a coincidence and there are several people much more on it than me that could explain the full breath of effects better than I could. Nonetheless, I maintain this isn't a BS conversation and its worth the debate. This is one item I will support Davis on.

These other metros have invested decades into hundreds of other initiatives to revitalize their core areas already. We can't even invest $5 million in cleaning up James Weldon Johnson Park or two-way a single street. We're having a premature discussion around the jail. Take that cash and go clean up Hogans Creek. That's an example of a public project that will cost hundreds of millions less, benefit the greater public, several neighborhoods and also create a lot more opportunities for the development community.

My main point, is we're better off prioritizing addressing our basic necessities we've long ignored first, and revisiting this jail move a decade or two from now.

[thelakelander]

It groups those in, but there are also dozens & dozens of crimes that are not happening in the jail as well. And I’m extremely confident there are crimes elsewhere downtown that can be contributed to releases from the jail. Is there absolutely nothing in all those links that heavily correlates with what were seeing here in JAX? I’ve yet to hear one compelling argument in my counter, with the one exception being the actual state of the prison might not needing immediate replacement. Even better to me, create a plan to move it by X date. Sorry but your side of the argument has really not substantiated any economic or social resources that contribute to yall’s points.

Again, what price do you put on the thousand of excess crimes that have occurred over 20 years that didn’t need to occur? Or are you claiming the crime rate in a hyper local area here vs the rural westside/northside would be the same from one of the largest DT jails in the entire country? Which part am I missing..

I believe the point you're missing is that there are several people who believe moving the jail now should not be the top priority for downtown's revitalization.