City Council Election 2-22-2022

[Florida Power And Light]

9:13 PM news and discussion

Metrojacksonville.com

.........

[I-10east]

Of course everyone heard the news. Howland defeated Polson. IMO (and many others, including mainstream news) before 2020 Jax is a purple city that was trending blue.

Now IMO with very unpopular national policies (even a large amount of Dems admit with mainstream polling) that Jax blueward trend has halted, and is either stagnant purple or slightly trending back red. Whether people like it or not Florida as a whole has trended red; with Republican voter registration recently outpacing the Democrats.

[JeffreyS]

The Defund lie really played well with the fearful who are unlikely to ever fact check a thing they hear.  Not that I suspect it changed many votes but rather as a motivating factor.

[Snaketoz]

I think another factor was news stories about Dems outpacing the Repubs in early voting. 

[Zac T]

I would really hesitate to say that this special election is a signal of the beginning or end of any trend at this point. It was a low turnout, off-year race that many people didn't even know was happening. Republicans in Jax have historically done well in these races.

The governors race in November will be the best indicator of where the city might be heading politically.

[Steve]

There's a few things to unpack with this one:

 - The turnout was about what was expected, perhaps slightly higher. The Dems tend to turn out more in early voting with the GOP seeing more election day turnout. I mean it's a countywide city council special election - you're not going to get Trump v. Biden numbers.
 - I think the Defund The Police narrative is going to bite Dems for a LONG time and unless the message somehow goes away between now and November, it could result in a 1994 GOP election scenario - traditionally the opposing party picks back up congressional seats in the first presidential election following a White House party swap but this could be a beatdown. With crime in cities being a big issue across the country every time the GOP brings it up it resonates. (Side note: I recognize what the goal of Defund the Police was originally, but the old adage is that if you have to explain the message you've already lost). We can say, "The Defund Lie" all we want but the bottom line is the GOP was EXTREMELY quick to push back on that phrase, where the Dems were EXTREMELY slow to push back.
 - Covid at this point is a negative towards Democrats, with mask mandates in Blue states only now being lifted and Florida's economy roaring back. How much of that is really connected to the Governor of any place is up for debate but the perception is, "the DeSantis way or the Newsom way."
 - I don't know if Jax really was becoming this blue city as some believed. I think the Dems had momentum after 2016 because of Trump and the moderates were tending to lean left every time Trump talked; now I think the moderates are starting to balance back right a bit. How much remains to be seen but the two issues above are key things.
 - Polson's message actually was okay, though I'd question her outreach to the moderates. She seemed to spend most of her time playing to the base - candidates on both sides do this and I'll never understand it. The far left Dems that vote in a countywide city council special election are GOING to vote for the Democrat, even if the messaging goes a bit moderate.

[Zac T]

There's a few things to unpack with this one:

 - The turnout was about what was expected, perhaps slightly higher. The Dems tend to turn out more in early voting with the GOP seeing more election day turnout. I mean it's a countywide city council special election - you're not going to get Trump v. Biden numbers.
 - I think the Defund The Police narrative is going to bite Dems for a LONG time and unless the message somehow goes away between now and November, it could result in a 1994 GOP election scenario - traditionally the opposing party picks back up congressional seats in the first presidential election following a White House party swap but this could be a beatdown. With crime in cities being a big issue across the country every time the GOP brings it up it resonates. (Side note: I recognize what the goal of Defund the Police was originally, but the old adage is that if you have to explain the message you've already lost). We can say, "The Defund Lie" all we want but the bottom line is the GOP was EXTREMELY quick to push back on that phrase, where the Dems were EXTREMELY slow to push back.
 - Covid at this point is a negative towards Democrats, with mask mandates in Blue states only now being lifted and Florida's economy roaring back. How much of that is really connected to the Governor of any place is up for debate but the perception is, "the DeSantis way or the Newsom way."
 - I don't know if Jax really was becoming this blue city as some believed. I think the Dems had momentum after 2016 because of Trump and the moderates were tending to lean left every time Trump talked; now I think the moderates are starting to balance back right a bit. How much remains to be seen but the two issues above are key things.
 - Polson's message actually was okay, though I'd question her outreach to the moderates. She seemed to spend most of her time playing to the base - candidates on both sides do this and I'll never understand it. The far left Dems that vote in a countywide city council special election are GOING to vote for the Democrat, even if the messaging goes a bit moderate.

I honestly believe that people are overstating the impact that "Defund the Police" has on elections in todays environment. It's marginal at best. 2020 was the time where it would have had an impact but the biggest issues today by a wide margin are COVID and inflation and, barring a war with Russia, will be the biggest issues headed into the midterms.

But again, I'd hesitate to draw any serious conclusions from a low turnout, city council special election.

[Steve]

There's a few things to unpack with this one:

 - The turnout was about what was expected, perhaps slightly higher. The Dems tend to turn out more in early voting with the GOP seeing more election day turnout. I mean it's a countywide city council special election - you're not going to get Trump v. Biden numbers.
 - I think the Defund The Police narrative is going to bite Dems for a LONG time and unless the message somehow goes away between now and November, it could result in a 1994 GOP election scenario - traditionally the opposing party picks back up congressional seats in the first presidential election following a White House party swap but this could be a beatdown. With crime in cities being a big issue across the country every time the GOP brings it up it resonates. (Side note: I recognize what the goal of Defund the Police was originally, but the old adage is that if you have to explain the message you've already lost). We can say, "The Defund Lie" all we want but the bottom line is the GOP was EXTREMELY quick to push back on that phrase, where the Dems were EXTREMELY slow to push back.
 - Covid at this point is a negative towards Democrats, with mask mandates in Blue states only now being lifted and Florida's economy roaring back. How much of that is really connected to the Governor of any place is up for debate but the perception is, "the DeSantis way or the Newsom way."
 - I don't know if Jax really was becoming this blue city as some believed. I think the Dems had momentum after 2016 because of Trump and the moderates were tending to lean left every time Trump talked; now I think the moderates are starting to balance back right a bit. How much remains to be seen but the two issues above are key things.
 - Polson's message actually was okay, though I'd question her outreach to the moderates. She seemed to spend most of her time playing to the base - candidates on both sides do this and I'll never understand it. The far left Dems that vote in a countywide city council special election are GOING to vote for the Democrat, even if the messaging goes a bit moderate.

I honestly believe that people are overstating the impact that "Defund the Police" has on elections in todays environment. It's marginal at best. 2020 was the time where it would have had an impact but the biggest issues today by a wide margin are COVID and inflation and, barring a war with Russia, will be the biggest issues headed into the midterms.

But again, I'd hesitate to draw any serious conclusions from a low turnout, city council special election.

We shall see, but I think you're underestimating crime particularly in large cities.

[Tacachale]

I would really hesitate to say that this special election is a signal of the beginning or end of any trend at this point. It was a low turnout, off-year race that many people didn't even know was happening. Republicans in Jax have historically done well in these races.

The governors race in November will be the best indicator of where the city might be heading politically.

Quite so. Jacksonville is a purple city that's increasingly favorable for Democrats due to population trends and the "Great Sorting" of traditional Republican families self-segregating in the bedroom counties. However, Republicans have a lot of built in advantages in funding, party infrastructure and bench of candidates. While I don't expect far right Republicans or Trumpers to do well outside bright red districts for the foreseeable future, non-fringe Republicans will be able to win elections here for a long time.

Polson did incredibly well for a Democrat in this race - previously, the only Democrats to win countywide local races were people like Hazouri and Crescimbeni who had name recognition and status from before the city shifted Republican in the 1990s. Polson came within a few thousand votes of winning. This is a trend up from previous non-Tommy races such as the Clerk of the Court, where Jimmy Midyette came within 12k votes of Jody Phillips despite Phillips having all the advantages.

Howland locked up his donor class and solid Republican voter base early, and (in my opinion) he came across as a good speaker and generally upbeat, likeable guy. That goes a lot further than people sometimes give it credit for. He's also riding the backlash to national Dems which swings every time the White House changes parties. Plus he successfully dodged or threaded the needle on a number of controversial issues that could have put people off him or energized the Dems, including Confederate monuments, school funding, election fraud, Curry, and Trump, and his "defund the police" lie really resonated with his base and moderates. On the other hand, winning for him took a metric shit ton of money, including tens of thousands of dollars from Tallahassee and a $50,000 donation from the local party, which I don't believe they've ever done before.

As an off cycle election, it was more about turnout than a gauge of where the city really is. I believe we'll see a few more cycles where Duval goes blue in state and national elections while Republicans maintain power in local elections. I do think we'll start seeing more success from true moderate Republicans like Matt and Joe Carlucci and Randi DeFoor who can successfully pull in NPAs and Dems.

[Tacachale]

There's a few things to unpack with this one:

 - The turnout was about what was expected, perhaps slightly higher. The Dems tend to turn out more in early voting with the GOP seeing more election day turnout. I mean it's a countywide city council special election - you're not going to get Trump v. Biden numbers.
 - I think the Defund The Police narrative is going to bite Dems for a LONG time and unless the message somehow goes away between now and November, it could result in a 1994 GOP election scenario - traditionally the opposing party picks back up congressional seats in the first presidential election following a White House party swap but this could be a beatdown. With crime in cities being a big issue across the country every time the GOP brings it up it resonates. (Side note: I recognize what the goal of Defund the Police was originally, but the old adage is that if you have to explain the message you've already lost). We can say, "The Defund Lie" all we want but the bottom line is the GOP was EXTREMELY quick to push back on that phrase, where the Dems were EXTREMELY slow to push back.
 - Covid at this point is a negative towards Democrats, with mask mandates in Blue states only now being lifted and Florida's economy roaring back. How much of that is really connected to the Governor of any place is up for debate but the perception is, "the DeSantis way or the Newsom way."
 - I don't know if Jax really was becoming this blue city as some believed. I think the Dems had momentum after 2016 because of Trump and the moderates were tending to lean left every time Trump talked; now I think the moderates are starting to balance back right a bit. How much remains to be seen but the two issues above are key things.
 - Polson's message actually was okay, though I'd question her outreach to the moderates. She seemed to spend most of her time playing to the base - candidates on both sides do this and I'll never understand it. The far left Dems that vote in a countywide city council special election are GOING to vote for the Democrat, even if the messaging goes a bit moderate.

I honestly believe that people are overstating the impact that "Defund the Police" has on elections in todays environment. It's marginal at best. 2020 was the time where it would have had an impact but the biggest issues today by a wide margin are COVID and inflation and, barring a war with Russia, will be the biggest issues headed into the midterms.

But again, I'd hesitate to draw any serious conclusions from a low turnout, city council special election.

We shall see, but I think you're underestimating crime particularly in large cities.

I agree on this. It's more about the rhetoric and signaling than anything real. Crime goes up and down, and locally it's Republicans, not Democrats, who have failed to solve the problem - not to mention axed police pensions and kept officer salaries below other big counties - but they're good at signaling that they "back the blue".

[MusicMan]

Who is the leader of the Democratic Party in Jacksonville/Duval County?

I have no idea.

Same for the entire state of Florida.  Dems are embarassingly weak statewide. 

DeSantis and Curry. Household names. 

Maybe Donna Degan can break the cycle, at least she has some name recognition. 

[Tacachale]

Who is the leader of the Democratic Party in Jacksonville/Duval County?

I have no idea.

Same for the entire state of Florida.  Dems are embarassingly weak statewide. 

DeSantis and Curry. Household names. 

Maybe Donna Degan can break the cycle, at least she has some name recognition.

The chair of the Duval Democrats is Daniel Henry, and the Florida Democrats is Manny A. Diaz. The head of the Duval GOP is Dean Black and Florida GOP is Joe Gruters.