Will Russia invade Ukraine?

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[MusicMan]

Pelosi visits Zelensky in Kyiv. At 82, she's got more balls than the entire Republican caucus.  Also like the fact she took Jason Crow. Former Army Ranger and a Democrat, out of Colorado. They have to put some fresh faces into public view. This guy could take on DSantis and would not be bullied around.

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Pelosi visits Zelensky in Kyiv. At 82, she's got more balls than the entire Republican caucus.  Also like the fact she took Jason Crow. Former Army Ranger and a Democrat, out of Colorado. They have to put some fresh faces into public view. This guy could take on DSantis and would not be bullied around.

Plenty of republicans have been there long before Nancy came tottering in for her camera time… glad she finally made it.

[MusicMan]

Zoom calls don't count..

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/gop-senators-share-photos-zelensky-call-ukraine.html

[BridgeTroll]

Zoom calls don't count..

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/gop-senators-share-photos-zelensky-call-ukraine.html

Wow... 
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/two-gop-lawmakers-become-first-us-officials-visit-ukraine-russias-inva-rcna24504

April 14, 2022, 10:06 PM EDT
By Zoë Richards
A pair of Republican lawmakers traveled to Kyiv on Thursday, making them the first U.S. officials known to have visited Ukraine since Russia invaded in late February.

Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who shared photos of the trip, and Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana visited the Kyiv suburbs and mass graves in nearby Bucha. Daines said the world needed to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin had done....

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 3
May 3, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF
 

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 3, 6:45 pm ET

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes and personnel ahead of the expected May 9 announcement and has already carried out covert mobilization.[1] Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said that high-ranking Russian officials are trying to legitimize a prolonged war effort as the Third World War against the West, rather than the "special military operation” against Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has hitherto framed Russia’s invasion.[2] ISW has no independent confirmation of Russian preparations for mobilization.

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Looks like Ukraine sunk another Russian warship…

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Interesting graphic...

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More interesting...

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https://thedebrief.org/abysmal-morale-and-poor-leadership-continue-to-torment-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

ABYSMAL MORALE AND POOR LEADERSHIP CONTINUE TO TORMENT RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE
TIM MCMILLAN. MAY 11, 2022

On Monday, a senior official from the U.S. Defense Department said Russia’s military continues to struggle with low morale, and Russian officers are now refusing to obey orders.

In a background briefing at the Pentagon, the senior official said anecdotal reports of poor morale among Russian troops and indications that some military officers are disobeying orders to move are likely key factors in Russia’s lack of success in its current campaign against Ukraine.

Cautioning that reports were anecdotal, the defense official said Russian leadership appeared to lack “sound command and control” on the battlefield.

“These are typically like, you know, mid-grade officers, you know, at various levels, even up to the battalion level where…some of these officers have either refused to obey orders or not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey,” added the senior DoD official.

Shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, poor morale exacerbated by fuel and food shortages led some Russian units to surrender without a fight when confronted by unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian opposition.

According to a Pentagon press briefing on March 1, intelligence indicated some Russian troops were even sabotaging their own vehicles to keep from going into combat.

Colonel Yury Medvedev, commander of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was reportedly killed when one of his soldiers ran over him with a tank late in March. According to Western intelligence officials and Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk, the soldier was disgruntled over the significant losses to the unit.

President Vladimir Putin dispatched Russia’s highest-ranking military officer and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to Ukraine in early May to change the course of Russia’s beleaguered offensive and boost troops’ dwindling willingness to fight.

However, shortly after General Gerasimov arrived, the Ukrainian military attacked a key Russian command center near the eastern city of Izyum, reportedly killing roughly 200 senior-level Russian troops, including Major General Andrei Simonov.

Unconfirmed reports have suggested that Gerasimov was wounded in the strike. However, citing a senior Ukrainian official, the New York Times reported Gerasimov was already returning to Russia when Ukrainian rockets hit the command post.

Gerasimov was notably missing at Russia’s big Victory Day parade on May 9. In past years, Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were typically at Putin’s side for the large-scale celebrations of the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany in WW2.

The incident with Gerasimov almost being taken out in a Ukrainian missile strike and subsequent disappearance, have likely had the opposite intended affect on Russian troop morale.

Phone calls intercepted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) provide additional, behind-the-scenes insight into the abysmal morale problems as Russia struggles to continue its invasion.

In one recording, a Russian troop tells a fellow soldier that his regiment only has one tank left after nine others had been destroyed by Ukraine. The soldier urges his comrade to sabotage the lone remaining tank to prevent having to continue fighting.

“Fucking disassemble it and sell it for scrap metal. You’ll be safer, damn it.”

In another call, a Russian soldier describes how troops sabotage their own equipment and refuse to follow orders.

“Our guys pour sand into the fuel system, into the tanks, not to go on the offensive! I do not follow stupid orders. I just refuse,” the soldier tells his friend. “He wanted to send me against the bloody tanks, piece of shit! I just told him to go fuck himself, and that’s it.”

Intercepted phone calls also reveal Russian soldiers suffering from mental breakdowns and combat fatigue.

“Yesterday, we were calming down one Ensign. had to take the gun away from him. He says, ‘I’m fucking done!’ He’s shaking, damn it,” a soldier tells his wife. “We took his fucking gun away. Guys found him today, [and] gave him back the gun. Everything is fine. Fuck, the poor guy lost his mind.”

“Many more probably go nuts, don’t they,” ask the soldier’s wife.

“I was freaking out at first, but now, nothing can be done. It’s not in my power. You can refuse an order, but if you get the fuck out of here, damn it, they will open a criminal case against you. Desertion, damn it, you’re screwed.”

Expletive laden conversations offer glimpses of Russian soldiers’ morale issues and their dissatisfaction with insufficient supplies, poor leadership, and orders to commit war crimes can also be found in

“Our Colonel came, the one we had earlier, fuck. We ask him, ‘what the fuck should we do? We have no weapons, nothing,” a soldier complained. “He says ‘fucking shoot all the civilians.’ For fucks sake! How the fuck!”

“Holy shit,” replied a soldier on the other end of the phone.

“Our command, the commanders, they received provisions, like cigarettes and food, damn it. You know what they did?” the soldier added. “All our leadership fucking fled! They dumped us all and fucked off. We don’t even know where they are.”

The other soldier urges his colleague to just shoot his unit’s commanders if they ever find them. “”Just shoot them, for fucks sake, and that’s it.”

The Debrief cannot independently verify the authenticity of the recordings provided by SBU. However, conversations were consistent with other on-the-ground reports.

Just recently, Russian troops from the far east republic of Buryatia did get into a shootout with fellow Russian fighters of the Chechen Republic.  The gunbattle, reportedly involving upwards of 100 soldiers, erupted near the village of Kyselivka, in the Chornobaivka territory of the Russian-occupied Kherson region after the Buryat soldiers refused to continue fighting.

Troops refusing orders to move forward have evidently become such an issue that, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, GUR, Chechen soldiers of Russia’s 141st Special Motorized Regiment operating in rear detachments have been tasked with shooting any Russian soldiers who try to retreat.

Confirming the claims, in another call intercepted by SBU, a Chechen soldier tells his wife not to worry because he’s operating behind the front lines in an “anti-retreat squad.”

“Our task is to chase back [to battle] those lousy soldiers when they start to scatter around after artillery strikes,” the Chechen soldier tells his wife.

Recorded calls reveal that some Russian troops have a relatively low opinion of the Chechen soldiers.

In one conversation, a Russian soldier mocks the Chechen fighters for filming videos of themselves and only being concerned with looting. In another call, a soldier tells his friend about how Chechen soldiers stole his gun.

“They came, as they said, to pray: ‘Let us in, bro, we’re friends, doing reconnaissance.’ I let them in, damn it. While he was praying, he swiped my PM [Makarov pistol]! They jumped in a car and fucking left.”

Assuredly not helping morale problems, the soldier complains about being made to dig trenches as punishment for losing his weapon and worries that he’ll be killed if he doesn’t find it. “And if I don’t find it, I’ll be killed! And they will write me off because ‘I’m missing,’ disappeared after a reconnaissance mission against the ‘Ukrops’ [Ukrainian defenders].”

“And this fucking Kadyrov unit, they’re just retarded, and that’s it,” a soldier tells his mother. 

In a reportedly intercepted text message shared by SBU, a Russian regimental commander fighting near Izium described how he tried shooting some of his “completely demoralized” soldiers after failing to “get them up morally or physically.”

When asked to describe the current status of Russia’s military campaign to seize the Donbas region, a senior Pentagon official replied, “I would not characterize it as successful, not at all. They really haven’t achieved any significant progress on the lines of access that they had anticipated achieving in the Northern Donbas.”

“They are being resisted very effectively by the Ukrainians. Incremental and somewhat anemic is how I would describe it so far.” 

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Video from drone

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522525618432315393?t=paMmDk7CfY8FTrQZpEG3dA&s=19

[MusicMan]

We need a coup in Russia. The Oli's need to take Putin into custody and pledge to each other they will not let him destroy the amazing lifestyles they enjoy. 

[BridgeTroll]

The siege of Severodonetsk is about to begin... Ukraine is exacting a heavy price but the Russians are gaining ground...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21

Russian forces made gains in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and intensified efforts to capture Severodonetsk on May 21. Russian troops blew up a bridge across the Severskyi Donetsk River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, setting conditions to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and take  Severodonetsk.[4] Pro-Russian milbloggers wrote about the beginning of the Battle of Severodonetsk on May 20 and claimed that Russian forces are closing in on the area from the north, east, and south.[5] The milbloggers emphasized the importance of disrupting Ukrainian GLOCs between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which are facilitated by at least two major bridges across the Severskyi Donetsk River. Russian forces’ destruction of at least one of the two bridges between the two towns will likely hinder Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk and indicate a Russian effort to encircle the city.[6] Russian forces reportedly conducted attacks against several towns around Popasna, which may allow them to push northward toward Severodonetsk.[7] Russian claims about their gains around Popasna remain unconfirmed by open sources as of the time of this publication.[8]

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27

May 27, 7:30pm ET

Russian forces began direct assaults on Severodonetsk on May 27 despite not yet having fully encircled the town. Russian forces have performed poorly in operations in built-up urban terrain throughout the war to date and are unlikely to be able to advance rapidly in Severodonetsk itself. Russian forces continue to make steady and incremental gains around the city but have not yet encircled the Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defenses across eastern Ukraine and have slowed most Russian lines of advance. Russian forces will likely continue to make incremental advances and may succeed in encircling Severodonetsk in the coming days, but Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled and Russian forces will likely be unable to increase the pace of their advances.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself.
Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.
Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.
Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures. 

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The battle for Severodonesk is essentially over with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to more defensible positions. The Russians have effectively captured the Luhansk Oblast but Ukrainian resistance is making them pay a heavy price...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2