Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[BridgeTroll]

The answer is yes... but of course they have already invaded and annexed a large portion of the country a couple years ago.
Negotiations seem to have failed this week and the real question is when?  I personally believe it will be soon and then the next question will be ... What will be the US, Europe, and NATOs response.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/14/a-week-of-russia-west-diplomacy-ends-in-deadlock-a76041

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/will-nato-engage-with-russias-security-demands

[BridgeTroll]

Shortly after negotiations ended...

https://cepa.org/be-afraid-has-russias-attack-on-ukraine-begun/

[BridgeTroll]

NATO Insiders Fear Attack on Multiple Fronts

Hopes are waning within NATO that Russian President Vladimir Putin can be stopped from invading Ukraine. At the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, officials are increasingly alarmed by even worse scenarios.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-ukraine-crisis-nato-insiders-fear-attack-on-multiple-fronts-a-6c6865ba-a6be-4f7c-a7e8-8a7611a2cdaa

[MusicMan]

If he does, he will strengthen NATO's position with the few remaining non members, and look like a fool as he will gain nothing but a bunch of dead soldiers and a weaker economy.....

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/opinions/putin-russia-us-nato-miscalculation-ghitis/index.html

[BridgeTroll]

Interesting take… the opposite also may be true. Why join a toothless organization that cannot or will not defend someone who wants to join…

[MusicMan]

BT, one question. Show me how Ukraine is threatening Russia, please?    As the article states, they might be threatening Putin, but they are no threat to Russia.  Are they massing troops on the border to invade Russia?

Putin is not fooling anyone.

[BridgeTroll]

They aren't threatening Russia... but... Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union and has made no secret of it's desire to join NATO.  Russia has historically been paranoid about her western flank and Putin is an old school soviet autocrat.  Russia wants iron clad assurance that Ukraine will not or cannot join NATO.  NATO  will not and cannot give such assurance under threat of invasion among other things.

Complicating things from a US perspective is that China and Taiwan are watching closely...

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Some say Putin is actually trying to create a distraction to take the Russian people's attention away from all the things wrong in their country such as a lousy quality of life under Putin's leadership.  Supposedly, Putin, in support of this, has cranked up his propaganda machine to full speed telling Russians that Ukraine is a threat to Russia.

Putin knows Ukraine is no threat to Russia, It's the other way around. And, he may not like NATO at his doorstep, but NATO clearly has no intention or reason to "invade" Russia so Putin is just trumping up that issue.  NATO might even be willing to agree to hold back on stationing certain military assets in Ukraine as long as Russia was behaving, just to throw in a bone.

Some pundits believe Putin should be more worried about the rumblings in Kazakhstan, which, to date has had pro-Putin puppets leading the country.  The unrest there could be taken as a exemplar for the Russian people which is Putin's ultimate concern.

This is all about Putin maintaining his hold on power while overseeing a corrupt and murderous bureaucracy that he is plundering for his own financial gain.  It is amazing that for over 100 years, an otherwise very intelligent people, have tolerated so many terrible leaders that have turned around and abused them.  Unfortunately, there are some today in this country who feel we might be facing a similar fate going forward.

[BridgeTroll]

Autocrats creating enemies to distract populations is nothing new and the Russians have been doing it for hundreds of years. It may be a distraction but he has already invaded and annexed portions of Ukraine a couple years ago... I think he wants more and knows NATO will do nothing to stop him.

[BridgeTroll]

At least some Europeans are stepping up...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60033012

[BridgeTroll]

https://dnyuz.com/2022/01/17/russia-thins-out-its-embassy-in-ukraine-a-possible-clue-to-putins-next-move/

[jaxlongtimer]

If Ukraine has any decent military assets, even in a losing effort, they could extract a very heavy toll on Russia.  I note that Ukraine also has a population of about 43,000,000.  Compare this to Afghanistan that is about 39,000,000.  Russia never could tame the latter so I would imagine they could face decades of Western supported urban combat and militant attacks both in Ukraine and in Russia if they successfully invade.  I would be surprised if 100,000 Russian troops less their battle losses would be able to sustain a worry-free occupation.  Another war of wills like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.

Between heavy losses and ongoing attacks, along with global sanctions, I wonder if even Putin could survive the resulting turmoil within Russia. 

Putin's attempt to rebuild the USSR reflects a failure to learn lessons of the past.  He might get some of it done but it won't hold together forever.

Doesn't mean Putin doesn't take a plunge if his ego and power hungry desires block his common sense.  So far, I suppose, that has been how he operates, unfortunately.

[Florida Power And Light]

So, what do Ukrainian citizens “ think” ?
50% on the Eastern side of this place say aw shucks, no NATO.
A little less from the folks to the West.
( Sideline; “ Corruption” )
Not worth going to war on the guise of “ Preserving Democracy “.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ Some say Putin is actually trying to create a distraction to take the Russian people's attention away from all the things wrong in their country such as a lousy quality of life under Putin's leadership.  Supposedly, Putin, in support of this, has cranked up his propaganda machine to full speed telling Russians that Ukraine is a threat to Russia.

Putin knows Ukraine is no threat to Russia, It's the other way around. And, he may not like NATO at his doorstep, but NATO clearly has no intention or reason to "invade" Russia so Putin is just trumping up that issue.  NATO might even be willing to agree to hold back on stationing certain military assets in Ukraine as long as Russia was behaving, just to throw in a bone.

Some pundits believe Putin should be more worried about the rumblings in Kazakhstan, which, to date has had pro-Putin puppets leading the country.  The unrest there could be taken as a exemplar for the Russian people which is Putin's ultimate concern.

This is all about Putin maintaining his hold on power while overseeing a corrupt and murderous bureaucracy that he is plundering for his own financial gain.  It is amazing that for over 100 years, an otherwise very intelligent people, have tolerated so many terrible leaders that have turned around and abused them.  Unfortunately, there are some today in this country who feel we might be facing a similar fate going forward.

If Ukraine has any decent military assets, even in a losing effort, they could extract a very heavy toll on Russia.  I note that Ukraine also has a population of about 43,000,000.  Compare this to Afghanistan that is about 39,000,000.  Russia never could tame the latter so I would imagine they could face decades of Western supported urban combat and militant attacks both in Ukraine and in Russia if they successfully invade.  I would be surprised if 100,000 Russian troops less their battle losses would be able to sustain a worry-free occupation.  Another war of wills like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.

Between heavy losses and ongoing attacks, along with global sanctions, I wonder if even Putin could survive the resulting turmoil within Russia. 

Putin's attempt to rebuild the USSR reflects a failure to learn lessons of the past.  He might get some of it done but it won't hold together forever.

Doesn't mean Putin doesn't take a plunge if his ego and power hungry desires block his common sense.  So far, I suppose, that has been how he operates, unfortunately.

This CNN opinion piece echoes many of my previous comments about about the risks to, and motivations of, Putin if he invades Ukraine:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/opinions/putin-russia-us-nato-miscalculation-ghitis/index.html

[BridgeTroll]

Thank goodness CNN reads the forum...