Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[BridgeTroll]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024

Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate. Ukrainian prioritization of the sectors most threatened by intensive Russian offensive operations could create vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces may be able to exploit to make sudden and surprising advances if Ukrainian supplies continue to dwindle. Russia’s retention of the theater-wide initiative increases the risks of such developments by letting the Russian military command choose to increase or decrease operations anywhere along the line almost at will.

German outlet Der Spiegel published interviews with unnamed Ukrainian commanders on March 12 who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations have to husband ammunition and materiel because of the overall ammunition shortage and that some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel can only hold their current positions if Russian forces do not “attack with full force.”[1] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deep into Ukrainian formations in unspecified areas of the frontline.[2]

Ukrainian forces are likely attempting to mitigate problems caused by ammunition shortages by prioritizing the allocation of ammunition to sectors of the front facing larger-scale Russian offensive operations. The lower intensity of Russian offensive efforts against currently de-prioritized sectors likely obscures the risks to Ukrainian forces in those areas resulting from ammunition shortages. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have the theater-wide initiative and will be able to determine the time, location, and scale of offensive operations so long as they retain the initiative.[3] Syrskyi’s and the Ukrainian commanders' statements suggest that an intensification of Russian offensive operations in an area where Ukrainian forces have not prioritized allocating already limited ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization along a previously stable sector of the frontline in a short period of time. The current frontline is likely thus not stable, and timely Western resourcing of Ukrainian troops is essential to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting an opportunity for a breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.

[Charles Hunter]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024

Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate. Ukrainian prioritization of the sectors most threatened by intensive Russian offensive operations could create vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces may be able to exploit to make sudden and surprising advances if Ukrainian supplies continue to dwindle. Russia’s retention of the theater-wide initiative increases the risks of such developments by letting the Russian military command choose to increase or decrease operations anywhere along the line almost at will.

German outlet Der Spiegel published interviews with unnamed Ukrainian commanders on March 12 who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations have to husband ammunition and materiel because of the overall ammunition shortage and that some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel can only hold their current positions if Russian forces do not “attack with full force.”[1] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deep into Ukrainian formations in unspecified areas of the frontline.[2]

Ukrainian forces are likely attempting to mitigate problems caused by ammunition shortages by prioritizing the allocation of ammunition to sectors of the front facing larger-scale Russian offensive operations. The lower intensity of Russian offensive efforts against currently de-prioritized sectors likely obscures the risks to Ukrainian forces in those areas resulting from ammunition shortages. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have the theater-wide initiative and will be able to determine the time, location, and scale of offensive operations so long as they retain the initiative.[3] Syrskyi’s and the Ukrainian commanders' statements suggest that an intensification of Russian offensive operations in an area where Ukrainian forces have not prioritized allocating already limited ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization along a previously stable sector of the frontline in a short period of time. The current frontline is likely thus not stable, and timely Western resourcing of Ukrainian troops is essential to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting an opportunity for a breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.

Thank you, Mr. Trump and the Putin sympathizers (supporters?) in Congress. There was a time when supporting an enemy would be called "treason".

[WarDamJagFan]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2024

Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate. Ukrainian prioritization of the sectors most threatened by intensive Russian offensive operations could create vulnerabilities elsewhere that Russian forces may be able to exploit to make sudden and surprising advances if Ukrainian supplies continue to dwindle. Russia’s retention of the theater-wide initiative increases the risks of such developments by letting the Russian military command choose to increase or decrease operations anywhere along the line almost at will.

German outlet Der Spiegel published interviews with unnamed Ukrainian commanders on March 12 who stated that almost all Ukrainian units and formations have to husband ammunition and materiel because of the overall ammunition shortage and that some Ukrainian units with limited ammunition and materiel can only hold their current positions if Russian forces do not “attack with full force.”[1] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi warned that there is a threat of Russian units advancing deep into Ukrainian formations in unspecified areas of the frontline.[2]

Ukrainian forces are likely attempting to mitigate problems caused by ammunition shortages by prioritizing the allocation of ammunition to sectors of the front facing larger-scale Russian offensive operations. The lower intensity of Russian offensive efforts against currently de-prioritized sectors likely obscures the risks to Ukrainian forces in those areas resulting from ammunition shortages. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces have the theater-wide initiative and will be able to determine the time, location, and scale of offensive operations so long as they retain the initiative.[3] Syrskyi’s and the Ukrainian commanders' statements suggest that an intensification of Russian offensive operations in an area where Ukrainian forces have not prioritized allocating already limited ammunition supplies could lead to a Russian breakthrough and destabilization along a previously stable sector of the frontline in a short period of time. The current frontline is likely thus not stable, and timely Western resourcing of Ukrainian troops is essential to prevent Russia from identifying and exploiting an opportunity for a breakthrough on a vulnerable sector of the front.

Thank you, Mr. Trump and the Putin sympathizers (supporters?) in Congress. There was a time when supporting an enemy would be called "treason".

There was a time when sending more resources to foreign borders while yours was being completely overrun with invaders as b@t $hit crazy.

[jax_hwy_engineer]

There was a time when sending more resources to foreign borders while yours was being completely overrun with invaders as b@t $hit crazy.

it's still crazy now, but the US economy depends on war and the manufacture of weapons, and our proxy wars in the middle east and eastern europe are a sweet way to launder money en mass. plus, no politician will say it, but we're addicted to the cheap labor that pours in from the southern border, even if it's a massive national security risk to the nation's citizens.

moralizing illegal immigration or these proxy wars hilarious to me, it's not about people, it's always about money. "if you don't support writing blank checks to ukraine, you're a putin supporter" is an argument so deluded and made in such bad faith it's almost comedic

it's not profitable to secure our border, but we can launder money and exercise our global influence by securing other countries borders, so nothing will change as long as the corrupt remain in power

[BridgeTroll]

I really don’t understand why you guys think it’s “either the border or stopping Russia”? Why cannot it be both?  Because if you don’t do it now… you or your children will be doing it later…

[BridgeTroll]

We all know the whole maga bs about sending money to Ukraine instead of the border is a red herring anyway… even if Biden gave maga all they wanted for the border they would find something else to complain about and hold hostage…

[jaxlongtimer]

I really don’t understand why you guys think it’s “either the border or stopping Russia”? Why cannot it be both?  Because if you don’t do it now… you or your children will be doing it later…

Agree with this. 

The biggest motivators for immigration to the US are war, famine, corruption, crime, persecution, poverty, lack of educational opportunities, etc. in the countries immigrants are migrating from.

If one really cares about reducing such motivations, we must do what we can to bring peace, economic and educational advancement, internal security, respect for human rights, etc. to the countries lacking same.  This obviously means we need to invest in those countries.

Millions of refugees have been created in countries like Ukraine when war comes to their doorsteps.  Aside from containing Putin and doing what is just, supporting Ukraine is just one example of how we can rollback waves of immigrants to other countries.   

If we follow Trump and do not invest outside the US, we will only allow for more turmoil.  No amount of money, walls or enforcement will keep desperate refugees from that turmoil from wanting to immigrate to countries like ours.  Just look at what risks and hardships immigrants go through to make it to our borders.  Thus, Trump and the MAGA approach will only exacerbate the problem, not solve it.

[BridgeTroll]

For those calling for Ukraine or the US to negotiate a peace with Russia... this is the Russian version...

The seven points include: Ukraine’s recognition of its military defeat, complete and unconditional Ukrainian surrender, and full “demilitarization”; recognition by the entire international community of Ukraine’s “Nazi character” and the “denazification” of Ukraine’s government; a United Nations (UN) statement stripping Ukraine of its status as a sovereign state under international law, and a declaration that any successor states to Ukraine will be forbidden to join any military alliances without Russian consent; the resignation of all Ukrainian authorities and immediate provisional parliamentary elections; Ukrainian reparations to be paid to Russia; official recognition by the interim parliament to be elected following the resignation of Ukraine’s current government that all Ukrainian territory is part of Russia and the adoption of a “reunification” act bringing Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation; and finally the dissolution of this provisional parliament and UN acceptance of Ukraine’s “reunification” with Russia.[3]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-14-2024

[WarDamJagFan]

I really don’t understand why you guys think it’s “either the border or stopping Russia”? Why cannot it be both?  Because if you don’t do it now… you or your children will be doing it later…

It's so easy a caveman could understand. A) We're adding a Trillion $$ of new debt every single month now. Within another year, our interest expense on debt will be larger than our already-bloated-out-of-control defense budget. Foreign wars are extremely costly and for the millionth time, we don't have the money for it.  B) The Pentagon has absolutely no credibility. We've invaded more countries and overthrown more governments than Russia has even dreamed of. To believe anything that comes out of that garbage pit in DC after Iraq, WMD's, Afghanistan, Trump Russia "collusion", Syria, Libya and their very own involvement of overthrowing a pro-Russian government in Ukraine in 2014 should be more than enough to understand this fact. C) As we're seeing play out all over the US in Sanctuary Cities and beyond, we do not have the resources to absorb all of the world's 3rd world inhabitants. The trajectory we're on regarding the border is an immediate threat to our quality of life and stability as a nation. Claiming a Russia win in Ukraine as equivalent or more important than that is the height of ignorance.

[BridgeTroll]

Oh stop the budgetary drama… I knew the whole border thing was a red herring… Biden could close the border completely and you would still say we don’t have any money for Ukraine. Trump added nearly 10 trillion to the deficit himself… as soon as he could spend your money on bs he did then and he will again heaven forbid.
You still really have not ever answered why immediately following the Russia invasion… Finland and Sweden immediately asked to join NATO after decades of neutrality… you have never really answered why after being granted independence from the Soviet Union the Baltic states and Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc begged to join NATO…

So please… answer …

[WarDamJagFan]

Oh stop the budgetary drama… I knew the whole border thing was a red herring… Biden could close the border completely and you would still say we don’t have any money for Ukraine. Trump added nearly 10 trillion to the deficit himself… as soon as he could spend your money on bs he did then and he will again heaven forbid.
You still really have not ever answered why immediately following the Russia invasion… Finland and Sweden immediately asked to join NATO after decades of neutrality… you have never really answered why after being granted independence from the Soviet Union the Baltic states and Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc begged to join NATO…

So please… answer …

It's an easy one. They see the West continuing to do everything possible to have an all-out hot war with Russia and tensions are reaching levels not seen sense the Cuban Missile Crisis (Oh hey, remember how pissed we got when we found out a foreign adversary was putting weapons on our doorstep? That's what NATO has done with Russia but we can't talk about that) They align more with the West than they do with Russia. Pretty simple.

And I've said it before, I'm not a fan of Trump because he never veto'd a single spending bill while in office. His cabinet picks were littered with people actual conservatives despise (John Bolton as the primary example). He also continued to harass Jerome Powell to keep interest rates near zero which also played a major factor into our current inflationary environment. Your assumption that if you aren't pro war with Russia, then you're automatically a Trump stooge is lazy at best and a huge reason why people can't even have conversations these days. This world isn't binary, brochacho.

And you still haven't answered or responded to my main point. After literally decades of being lied to about foreign wars from Washington, in what rational world should we believe them today?  What's Russia's country body count vs the US since the Cold War ended? Answer those questions and I'll rest my case to a cold case of Coors Banquet for the weekend. Cheers!    

[jaxlongtimer]

Russia has a long history of invading neighboring countries for no reason other than to control them explicitly.  I am not going to defend much of our own history, but, at least, nowadays, when we invade a country we finally step back or leave  . 

Ukraine voluntarily gave up its nuclear weapons so what was Putin really worried about....  If he played his cards right he likely could have negotiated for their non-return if Ukraine did join NATO.

Instead, Putin drove longtime neutral countries Finland and Sweden into the arms of NATO and, you can be sure, if Ukraine survives this war, they will be doing the same.

The NATO concern is really just a cover for Putin's desire to reassemble the Russian empire, which he has essentially admitted to wanting.  If he gets Ukraine, he won't stop there and the world (mostly) knows it.  It is in everyone's best interest to stop him now rather than later.  The world made the mistake of trying to appease Hitler and we should never do that again.  Some world leaders only understand brute force, unfortunately.

[BridgeTroll]

Oh stop the budgetary drama… I knew the whole border thing was a red herring… Biden could close the border completely and you would still say we don’t have any money for Ukraine. Trump added nearly 10 trillion to the deficit himself… as soon as he could spend your money on bs he did then and he will again heaven forbid.
You still really have not ever answered why immediately following the Russia invasion… Finland and Sweden immediately asked to join NATO after decades of neutrality… you have never really answered why after being granted independence from the Soviet Union the Baltic states and Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc begged to join NATO…

So please… answer …

It's an easy one. They see the West continuing to do everything possible to have an all-out hot war with Russia and tensions are reaching levels not seen sense the Cuban Missile Crisis (Oh hey, remember how pissed we got when we found out a foreign adversary was putting weapons on our doorstep? That's what NATO has done with Russia but we can't talk about that) They align more with the West than they do with Russia. Pretty simple.

And I've said it before, I'm not a fan of Trump because he never veto'd a single spending bill while in office. His cabinet picks were littered with people actual conservatives despise (John Bolton as the primary example). He also continued to harass Jerome Powell to keep interest rates near zero which also played a major factor into our current inflationary environment. Your assumption that if you aren't pro war with Russia, then you're automatically a Trump stooge is lazy at best and a huge reason why people can't even have conversations these days. This world isn't binary, brochacho.

And you still haven't answered or responded to my main point. After literally decades of being lied to about foreign wars from Washington, in what rational world should we believe them today?  What's Russia's country body count vs the US since the Cold War ended? Answer those questions and I'll rest my case to a cold case of Coors Banquet for the weekend. Cheers!    

Your strawman about Trump stooges and binary worlds  is laughable brochacho... You can also add your hilarious "straight from the Kremlin " baloney about the West trying to provoke a war...  I  have posted multiple sources from all over the world supporting my views and most reasonable people while you have documented... well... nothing.  Literally. Show your work... document your assertions... I and others are very curious where you are getting your propa... er ... information from. Quotes maybe? With links even?

Cmon Brochacho... the world wants to know...

[Tacachale]

Oh stop the budgetary drama… I knew the whole border thing was a red herring… Biden could close the border completely and you would still say we don’t have any money for Ukraine. Trump added nearly 10 trillion to the deficit himself… as soon as he could spend your money on bs he did then and he will again heaven forbid.
You still really have not ever answered why immediately following the Russia invasion… Finland and Sweden immediately asked to join NATO after decades of neutrality… you have never really answered why after being granted independence from the Soviet Union the Baltic states and Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc begged to join NATO…

So please… answer …

Congress did hash out a border bill that was a faircompromise -- more strict than Democrats want, not as draconian as some Republicans want. Then it was tanked by the same politicians who said they wouldn't fund Ukraine without a border bill. So not only is the whole border argument a total fraud, not even the politicians selling it believe it.

[BridgeTroll]

Right out of the Kremlin’s Crimea/Ukraine invasion provocation handbook and surprising virtually no one...

Unspecified actors launched a drone at a military base in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway republic in Moldova, on March 17 amidst an assessed ongoing Kremlin hybrid operation aimed at destabilizing Moldova from within. Transnistrian outlets claimed on March 17 that a single drone struck a helicopter on the territory of an unspecified military unit in Transnistria, posted video footage of the moment of the drone strike, and alleged that the drone flew from the direction of Odesa Oblast.[14] Neither Transnistrian nor Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian forces of conducting the strike as of this writing but may do so in the future. The former Transnistrian Supreme Council Chairman, Alexander Shcherba, claimed that the strike had “Ukrainian fingerprints” and that the “main beneficiary” was Ukraine.[15] The Moldovan Bureau of Reintegration stated that the struck helicopter had not flown for years, and the strike was deliberately meant to spread fear and panic in Transnistria, implying it was part of an adversarial information operation targeting Moldova, though the Bureau of Reintegration did not explicitly accuse Transnistrian or pro-Russian forces of conducting the strike.[16] Moldovan authorities stated that they were in contact with the Ukrainian government.[17] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov described the situation as a Russian provocation.[18] The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation accused Russia of conducting the strike to manipulate the information space.[19] ISW cannot independently verify the details of the singular drone strike in Transnistria or identify the responsible actors, but it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces conducted the strike given the limited means used in the strike and the insignificant target. Ukrainian officials have also recently stated that Transnistria does not pose a military threat to Ukraine.[20] Transnistrian authorities recently asked Russia for unspecified “zashchita” (defense/protection) against Moldova, and Russia or Russian-linked actors would likely be the beneficiaries of this provocation in order to further the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to set information conditions to justify a variety of Russian hybrid operations that aim to destabilize Moldova, about which ISW has extensively warned.[21]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-17-2024