Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[BridgeTroll]

Kremlin-appointed Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova confirmed on July 31 that Russia has transferred 4.8 million Ukrainians, including over 700,000 children, to the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war.[20] In a report on the activities “authorized by the President of the Russian Federation for children’s rights” in 2022, Lvova-Belova claimed that Russia has “received” 4.8 million Ukrainians since February 2022 and noted that the vast majority of the 700,000 children who arrived to Russia did not have parental or guardian supervision

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-31-2023

[jaxlongtimer]

Breaking news... what a "surprise" if true.  Everyone knew something would happen to Prigozhin sooner or later.  How convenient.

Ten people have been killed in a private jet crash north of Moscow - with the Russian Civil Aviation Authority saying Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list.

Seven passengers and three crew were on board the Embraer aircraft, which was en route from Moscow to St Petersburg, TASS news agency reported.

[BridgeTroll]

The world is a better/safer place today...

[BridgeTroll]

Ukrainian victory is closer than anyone thinks...

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/

[BridgeTroll]

Awesome article...

https://cepa.org/article/ukraines-valley-forge-moment/

[Charles Hunter]

All of this will be for naught if any of several "leading" Republican candidates for President win, as they have pledged to end aid to Ukraine.

[BridgeTroll]

All of this will be for naught if any of several "leading" Republican candidates for President win, as they have pledged to end aid to Ukraine.

Very true... and it illustrates how far down the rabbit hole those folks have gone. President Reagan would have supported Ukraine wholeheartedly. I'm embarrassed about what has become of the GOP... it most certainly is no longer "Grand"... Perhaps "Goofy Old Party" fits better... I  may not be a huge fan of President Biden but he is 100% correct in his support of Ukraine.

[BridgeTroll]

Think Ukraine’s Expensive? Wait for the New Cold War
By Jan Kallberg
October 20, 2023

Aid to Ukraine is under threat, but surrendering a democratic ally to Russia would be hugely more expensive — perhaps 10 times the cost in cash terms.
It is a time of stark choices. 

The United States has channeled considerable resources to sustain Ukraine’s embattled democracy in its fight against Russian imperialism. To win, Ukraine will need more, as President Biden set out in his Oval Office speech on October 19.

There is an alternative, of course. The US can end its aid and draw in its horns, but the country should understand that this is not a cost-free answer. The US would lose allies, influence, and trade globally. It’s very hard to put a number on the damage that would be done — some of it isn’t financial — but it is fair to believe that it would be far in excess of the $76bn the US sent to Ukraine last year..... 

Take a few minutes and read this... you won't see analysis like this anywhere else.

https://cepa.org/article/think-ukraines-expensive-wait-for-the-new-cold-war/

Bonus coverage... from a native of Ukraine and Crimea...

https://cepa.org/article/russian-victory-would-bring-darkness-to-the-heart-of-europe/

[BridgeTroll]

Seabed warfare is a reality... and everyone and everything is vulnerable.

http://www.hisutton.com/4th-Leak-in-NordStream-Attack.html

https://www.submarinecablemap.com/

We can add more seabed sabotage by Russia and/or China... it really doesn't matter...

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/russia-a-chinese-cargo-ship-and-the-sabotage-of-subsea-cables-in-the-baltic-sea/

Russia, a Chinese cargo ship and the sabotage of subsea cables in the Baltic Sea

Earlier this month, as the world’s attention was focused on the horror unfolding in Israel and Gaza, it was easy to miss the news that two subsea telecommunications cables and a gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea had been damaged.

On the night of 7 October, the 77-kilometre Balticconnector gas pipeline and a separate but close-by subsea telecommunications cable stretching between Finland and Estonia were damaged in the Gulf of Finland. A week later, it emerged that, on the same night, another subsea telecommunications cable—connecting Estonia and Sweden—had also been damaged.

[BridgeTroll]

https://www.hudson.org/foreign-policy/fourteen-facts-about-us-aid-support-cost-ukraine-luke-coffey

Hudson Institute
The Fourteen Facts about US Aid to Ukraine
Luke Coffey

Since Russia invaded Ukraine for the second time in eight years, Russian troops have ravaged Ukraine’s cities, raped its women, and stolen its children. Russian missiles and Iranian drones strike Ukrainian cities daily, often hitting civilian targets. Russia is the aggressor. Ukraine is the victim.

For Americans who believe in respect for national borders, the primacy of national sovereignty, and the right to self-defense, support for Ukraine is natural. Ukrainians are not asking for, nor do they want, US troops to help them fight Russia. All they ask for is the resources required to give them a fighting chance.

Meanwhile, Russia is among America’s top geopolitical adversaries. As former Secretary of State and Hudson Distinguished Fellow Mike Pompeo said last week, a Russian victory “would be felt well beyond Ukraine’s borders, including by strengthening a Russia-China-Iran alliance that aims to weaken the US and our allies across the globe.”

As Congress debates additional support for Ukraine, detractors will spread false and misleading information. It is important to understand the facts.

Fact: The US is not writing “blank checks” to Ukraine, and most of the money allocated to help Ukraine never leaves the US.

Every dollar spent in support of Ukraine is authorized by Congress and used for a specific purpose. There has never been a “blank check” to Ukraine.
Approximately $70 billion of the aid authorized for Ukraine will never leave the US. Instead, it supports our world-leading defense industry and creates well-paid jobs across 38 states.
After witnessing the effectiveness of US military equipment in Ukraine, European countries alone have placed $90 billion in orders for American-made military hardware. This makes America safer and creates well paid jobs for Americans.

Fact: For a relatively modest amount of money, US aid helps Ukraine dismantle Russia’s armed forces without a single American firing a shot or being shot at.

Russia is a top geopolitical adversary of the United States, and a close ally of China, Iran, and North Korea.
Estimates vary, but up to 300,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. The original Russian invasion force from February 2022 has effectively ceased to exist.
Open source reporting has collected visual evidence that Russia has lost more than 12,900 major pieces of equipment in Ukraine by the time of this writing. Since this number is limited to visually confirmed losses, the actual number is likely far higher.
These losses include: 2,439 main battle tanks, 1,026 armored fighting vehicles, 2,977 infantry fighting vehicles, 368 armored personnel carriers, 914 pieces of artillery, 201 multiple rocket launchers, 93 aircraft (including three strategic bombers), 132 helicopters, and likely thousands of other pieces of military hardware.
Ukraine has destroyed or damaged 16 ships and submarines, including the guided missile cruiser Moskva (previously the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet) and the submarine Rostov-on-Don. Their destruction supports broader US security objectives outside the Black Sea. For example, Russia has used both vessels to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Fact: There has never been more accountability for US military assistance than what is available for Ukraine aid.

Soon after Russia’s invasion, the US government established the Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group. More than 160 officials across 20 federal oversight agencies monitor US aid to Ukraine.
To date, Congress has allocated $50 million for the inspectors general of the Department of Defense, Department of State, and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) to increase oversight through the working group.
The groups have completed dozens of reports, with dozens more in the works. According to the working group, “Investigations related to the Ukraine response have not yet substantiated significant waste, fraud, or abuse.”
The White House’s proposed Ukraine supplemental will add another $15 million to fund additional oversight activities. Among other things, this additional funding will allow the State Department’s Office of the Inspector General to “increase inspections and investigations beyond its 27 current and planned projects that span foreign assistance, management, and operational activities.”

Fact: Europe has spent more than the US on Ukraine aid.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy’s Ukraine aid tracker, total European commitments are now more than double those of the US after totaling all aid (military, economic, humanitarian, and refugee).
Twenty European countries have given more to Ukraine than the US as a percentage of GDP.

Fact: A victorious Ukraine means a safer Taiwan.

The choice between security in Europe or security in the Indo-Pacific is a false dichotomy. In terms of US national interests, the two regions are intimately linked.
Russia is China’s junior partner. A weakened or defeated Russia means a weaker China. Beijing is watching how Western powers support Ukraine, so a strong and victorious Ukraine makes Taiwan stronger and deters Chinese aggression.
It’s no coincidence that earlier this year, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visited Ukraine while Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Russia. During this visit, Xi told Vladimir Putin, “Now there are changes that haven’t happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes.”
In Kishida’s own words, “The security of the Indo-Pacific region cannot be separated from European security.”

Fact: European stability, which Russia is trying to undermine, affects the American worker.

North America and Europe account for approximately 48 percent of the global economy.
Europe is America’s largest source of foreign investment. In 2021, Europe accounted for $3.19 trillion out of a total of $4.98 trillion of foreign capital investment in the US, or about 64 percent.
The US and Europe are each other’s largest export markets. In 2022, 45 out of 50 states—including the largest single-state economy, California—exported more goods to Europe than to China.
Europe matters to the American heartland too. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma each export five times more to Europe than China.
When Americans build something to be exported, that protects American jobs. European stability brings untold benefits to the US economy and, by extension, to the American worker. Aiding Ukraine helps preserve that stability.

Fact: The lessons the US learns from Ukraine will make America stronger in the Indo-Pacific.

Supporting Ukraine has exposed major shortcomings in the American defense industrial base, which the US is now addressing. Thankfully, these shortcomings were uncovered when America was not directly at war.
Deployment in Ukraine has tested American-made military hardware in a way that is impossible in peacetime. The US is learning what works, what doesn’t work, and how to make improvements. This prepares America for future warfare to a degree that is unachievable through exercises alone.
The US is replacing all the weapons it gives to Ukraine with newer, more effective systems.
As Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen said, “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call to us all.” Because of their support for Ukraine, US allies and partners in East Asia are spending more on defense to better prepare for future threats.

Fact: The weapons the US is sending to Ukraine do not impact America’s ability to fight an Indo-Pacific conflict.

Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rockets, older AGM-88 and AGM-88E air to surface anti-radiation missiles, and AIM-7 and AIM-9M interceptors, which the US is sending to Ukraine, are either irrelevant to an Indo-Pacific fight or are expiring anyway.
The most effective way to use these weapons is to send them to Ukraine. The 10,000 Javelins or the 2,000 Stingers that the US has given to Ukraine will not be a determining factor in whether the US can deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But they were the determining factor that allowed Ukraine to defend Kyiv in the beginning weeks of the war.
America’s weapons of choice in a conflict against China will be torpedoes, the AGM-158 JASSM and AGM-158C LRASM strike missiles, naval mines, and Tomahawk cruise missiles. None of these have been provided to Ukraine.

Fact: Because of lessons the US learned by arming Ukraine, Taiwan is receiving weapons sooner.

For the first time, the presidential drawdown authority (PDA), which has been used so effectively for Ukraine, is being used to arm Taiwan. Had the US not supported Ukraine, it is unlikely that Washington would have used the PDA to arm Taiwan.
Congress has authorized up to $1 billion in weapons for Taiwan using PDA.
In July 2023, the US announced a $345 million military aid package for Taiwan as part of the $1 billion in PDA approved by Congress.
Even though the lethal High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is in high demand from US allies and partners, Taiwan’s order for additional HIMARS will now arrive one year earlier than planned because the US reprioritized the sale.

Fact: Iran and North Korea enable Russia to attack Ukraine. Russia supports Hamas.

Some of America’s top adversaries, and the enemies of America’s closest allies and partners, have aligned with Russia.
By the end of 2022, Iran had provided more than 1,700 drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. Earlier this year, Moscow and Tehran agreed to start producing around 6,000 Iranian-designed drones in Russia. Meanwhile, Iran and its proxies are using the same drones to threaten Israel and attack US troops in the Middle East.
North Korea has reportedly delivered more than one million artillery rounds to Russia for use in Ukraine. There have also been reports that North Korea has provided ballistic missiles to Russia.
Russia regularly votes in the United Nations Security Council and General Assembly to protect Hamas—even as Hamas commits atrocities against Israel. In October, only weeks after the group’s terrorist attack against innocent Israeli civilians, Russia received a Hamas delegation in Moscow.

Fact: Ukraine is not a new “forever war.”

Not a single US service member is fighting against Russia in Ukraine.
The US is not a belligerent in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukrainians are not asking for, nor do they want, US troops to help them fight Russia. All they ask for is resources, which the US is more than capable of providing.

Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia.

The definition of a proxy war is a war “fought by states acting at the instigation or on behalf of other states.”
The US has never instigated Ukrainians to fight. The US is not forcing the Ukrainians to fight on its behalf. The US is merely fulfilling Ukrainians’ requests for weapons and assistance as they fight a war of self-defense.
Ukrainians are fighting a war of national survival. Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around. Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim.
If Russia stops fighting, the war will be over. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine as it is known today will be over.

Fact: The US needs to provide both military and nonmilitary aid to achieve the greatest effect.

Some propose providing only one type of aid as a compromise with those who do not want to provide any aid to Ukraine. However, this proposal is a half measure and would yield disappointing results.
The Ukrainian military is not the only actor defending against Russia. As shown by Russia’s indiscriminate targeting of civilians with ballistic missiles and Iranian drones, the whole of Ukrainian society is at war.
The first year of Russia’s invasion eliminated almost 30 percent of Ukraine’s economy. Even so, Ukraine’s government and essential public services (law enforcement and first responders, diplomats, utility workers, etc.) need to function properly for the nation to remain on a total war footing.
US support needs to be broad in scope. Those who call for the US to give only military support fail to see the bigger picture in Ukraine.

Fact: Claims that US aid to Ukraine has cost “$900 per American household” and that the newly proposed aid package will add “over $1,000” to the tax burden of “every family of four in America” are wildly misleading.

These numbers are often used to mislead Americans into thinking that they are shouldering an unnecessary financial burden to help Ukraine amid economic difficulties and high inflation at home.
These numbers are misleading because federal income tax is not levied evenly across households.
In 2020, the most recent year for which data is available, the top 1 percent of earners paid 42.3 percent of all federal income tax. The bottom 50 percent of taxpayers (those making $42,184 or less) paid only 2.3 percent of all federal income tax.
Approximately 60 million tax returns reported income of $30,000 or less. The effective average tax rate for this group was 1.5 percent before any tax credits were applied.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let's talk... 

[WarDamJagFan]

"Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia."

This is a lie. The US is absolutely engaged in a proxy war. Why else would Lindsey Graham so boldly claim that "the best money we've ever spent" is directly related to the death of Russian soldiers during the war? Washington has made Russia it's de-facto boogie man forever yet can't explain what sort of actual "direct threat" they pose on us. The fact is, they don't. Washington itself is a far greater direct threat to the sovereignty of this nation than Russia will be anytime soon.

[acme54321]

"Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia."

This is a lie. The US is absolutely engaged in a proxy war. Why else would Lindsey Graham so boldly claim that "the best money we've ever spent" is directly related to the death of Russian soldiers during the war? Washington has made Russia it's de-facto boogie man forever yet can't explain what sort of actual "direct threat" they pose on us. The fact is, they don't. Washington itself is a far greater direct threat to the sovereignty of this nation than Russia will be anytime soon.

I tend to agree on everything other than the threat to sovereignty comment.  The US isn't the one that has invaded and captured like 25% of Ukraine's sovereign territory since 2014.  Not sure how you can even remotely say Washington is a greater threat.

[WarDamJagFan]

"Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia."

This is a lie. The US is absolutely engaged in a proxy war. Why else would Lindsey Graham so boldly claim that "the best money we've ever spent" is directly related to the death of Russian soldiers during the war? Washington has made Russia it's de-facto boogie man forever yet can't explain what sort of actual "direct threat" they pose on us. The fact is, they don't. Washington itself is a far greater direct threat to the sovereignty of this nation than Russia will be anytime soon.

I tend to agree on everything other than the threat to sovereignty comment.  The US isn't the one that has invaded and captured like 25% of Ukraine's sovereign territory since 2014.  Not sure how you can even remotely say Washington is a greater threat.

The US helped push the chaos in Ukraine that was 2014 because, again, Russia bad. But in terms of the threat Washington poses, what would you call allowing tens of millions of people to pour into your country from the southern border unchecked? We spread our military over the entire planet fighting wars we have no business fighting. What would you call spending tax dollars into oblivion, to the point that our largest line item from an expense standpoint is simply the interest on the debt we currently owe? That number will only continue to skyrocket regardless of who's in charge, D or R. These are problems that are far more of a direct threat to us as citizens than anything Putin poses. How many wars has Russia launched since the Cold War ended? Far fewer than we have, that's for sure.

[acme54321]

"Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia."

This is a lie. The US is absolutely engaged in a proxy war. Why else would Lindsey Graham so boldly claim that "the best money we've ever spent" is directly related to the death of Russian soldiers during the war? Washington has made Russia it's de-facto boogie man forever yet can't explain what sort of actual "direct threat" they pose on us. The fact is, they don't. Washington itself is a far greater direct threat to the sovereignty of this nation than Russia will be anytime soon.

I tend to agree on everything other than the threat to sovereignty comment.  The US isn't the one that has invaded and captured like 25% of Ukraine's sovereign territory since 2014.  Not sure how you can even remotely say Washington is a greater threat.

The US helped push the chaos in Ukraine that was 2014 because, again, Russia bad. But in terms of the threat Washington poses, what would you call allowing tens of millions of people to pour into your country from the southern border unchecked? We spread our military over the entire planet fighting wars we have no business fighting. What would you call spending tax dollars into oblivion, to the point that our largest line item from an expense standpoint is simply the interest on the debt we currently owe? That number will only continue to skyrocket regardless of who's in charge, D or R. These are problems that are far more of a direct threat to us as citizens than anything Putin poses. How many wars has Russia launched since the Cold War ended? Far fewer than we have, that's for sure.

I was reading "this nation" wrong and thought you were referring to Ukraine.  Carry on.

[WarDamJagFan]

"Fact: The US is not engaged in a proxy war against Russia."

This is a lie. The US is absolutely engaged in a proxy war. Why else would Lindsey Graham so boldly claim that "the best money we've ever spent" is directly related to the death of Russian soldiers during the war? Washington has made Russia it's de-facto boogie man forever yet can't explain what sort of actual "direct threat" they pose on us. The fact is, they don't. Washington itself is a far greater direct threat to the sovereignty of this nation than Russia will be anytime soon.

I tend to agree on everything other than the threat to sovereignty comment.  The US isn't the one that has invaded and captured like 25% of Ukraine's sovereign territory since 2014.  Not sure how you can even remotely say Washington is a greater threat.

The US helped push the chaos in Ukraine that was 2014 because, again, Russia bad. But in terms of the threat Washington poses, what would you call allowing tens of millions of people to pour into your country from the southern border unchecked? We spread our military over the entire planet fighting wars we have no business fighting. What would you call spending tax dollars into oblivion, to the point that our largest line item from an expense standpoint is simply the interest on the debt we currently owe? That number will only continue to skyrocket regardless of who's in charge, D or R. These are problems that are far more of a direct threat to us as citizens than anything Putin poses. How many wars has Russia launched since the Cold War ended? Far fewer than we have, that's for sure.

I was reading "this nation" wrong and thought you were referring to Ukraine.  Carry on.

All good. I just feel objectivity around this subject has been thrown out the window because we've been conditioned to believe that Russia is the most evil force on the planet that must be dealt with at all costs. Facts that can't be ignored here are NATO has continued to expand its influence closer and closer to Russia's border over the years. Throw in the Western backed coup in Ukraine to institute a more "pro Western" government, constant sanctions and rhetoric from NATO members wanting to cripple Russia, legit discussions of adding Ukraine to NATO and stockpiling more lethal weapons in those neighboring countries, etc, etc,.... eventually, Russia is going to be forced to make a counter move. Remember, we were on the cusp of a global nuclear holocaust during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Why? Because an extremely adversarial nation put powerful weapons on our doorstep and threatened to use them. History always repeats itself and now we have a eerily similar situation in Ukraine. Except this time, the shoe is on the other foot.