Author Topic: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....  (Read 152562 times)

Charles Hunter

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #375 on: July 24, 2023, 09:26:19 PM »
You are correct, the "trolley" version of the shuttles co-existed with the Skyway. As I recall, it served parts of downtown not directly on the Skyway guideway, including to parking lots near the Stadium. Further digging into my memory, the downtown circulator buses - both the original service and the "trolleys" - were designed to connect commuters to peripheral parking lots, and did not run after 6 PM or so.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #376 on: July 26, 2023, 11:12:23 AM »
Uh… did anyone notice that French autonomous vehicle company (and JTA supplier) Navya went bankrupt this year?

They entered receivership back in February and the French commercial court ruled in April that the company would be liquidated and its assets sold to another company, Gaussin, for just 1.4 million euros. Word is the FTA isn't as interested in funding building AVs in particular now as they were a couple years ago.

So that's now the second U2C supplier to collapse, after Local Motors. Sounds like a stunning sign of financial confidence in the autonomous vehicle industry.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #377 on: July 26, 2023, 03:49:14 PM »
Wow! Not surprised. I wonder why this wasn't covered in the local media?!
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BridgeTroll

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #378 on: July 26, 2023, 04:26:39 PM »
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/
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Todd_Parker

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #379 on: July 26, 2023, 04:52:56 PM »
"The CID invested $400,000 in the Cumberland Hopper pilot program."

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus

Meanwhile, how much is Jacksonville on the hook (so far) for their autonomous car program? And when will that program be on the streets? This decade?

Jax_Developer

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #380 on: July 26, 2023, 05:46:33 PM »
Uh… did anyone notice that French autonomous vehicle company (and JTA supplier) Navya went bankrupt this year?

They entered receivership back in February and the French commercial court ruled in April that the company would be liquidated and its assets sold to another company, Gaussin, for just 1.4 million euros. Word is the FTA isn't as interested in funding building AVs in particular now as they were a couple years ago.

So that's now the second U2C supplier to collapse, after Local Motors. Sounds like a stunning sign of financial confidence in the autonomous vehicle industry.

Yes, hence why I think it's safe to say we are deciding color schemes on the Ford EV right now.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #381 on: July 26, 2023, 06:04:20 PM »
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Beep isn't a manufacturer. Their actual job in theory is to be a transit agency for places without transit agencies (such as master planned developments, college or medical campuses, places of that nature), but specifically for autonomous shuttles. So you (as the municipality, or developer/CDD, or BID) give them a contract to design, provide vehicles for and then operate a shuttle route, whereas you would normally have a transit agency design, provide buses and drivers for and then operate a bus route.

The vehicles are supposed to be manufactured by other companies, like Local Motors or Navya. But those companies have now gone bankrupt so they're either in a similar position to JTA in the early 2010s and having to figure out how to keep maintaining vehicles that are now out of production, or scrambling to find other companies (like ZF and Holon) to get them new vehicles on some reasonable timeline. Of course there's no way they're currently profitable right now so they have to do all this while interest rates continue to rise, constraining new VC money to fund operations and development while their costs continue to escalate.

So that leaves Beep two options until the technology works well enough to remove the attendants and have a consistent, high-quality vehicle that lets them reduce costs (whenever that happens):

1) Keep finding enough master planned developments and agencies willing to hand them few hundred thousand dollars at a time to run "pilots," or

2) Find a gullible enough, future-obsessed enough transit agency willing to hand them millions, potentially tens of millions of dollars to operate a shuttle route.

I wonder who that would be.

"The CID invested $400,000 in the Cumberland Hopper pilot program."

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus

Meanwhile, how much is Jacksonville on the hook (so far) for their autonomous car program? And when will that program be on the streets? This decade?

It's unclear, because they won't just tell laypeople that, get upset when you mention the known capital cost overruns, and City Council isn't curious enough about their $430+ million transit project to make them answer. JTA's most recent budget for FY23 shows $4.5 million for U2C Planning (presumably a result of the RAISE planning grant) as part of the bus capital budget, but there's no mention of the U2C by name in the FY22 budget, while the FY20 budget shows $29.1 million in federal, state, and JTA funding for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

FY21 curiously mentions that under the Corporate budget, "Services is based on the expected need for the Automation department's continued progress in the testing and design phases related to" the U2C and Bay Street. That year, the Services budget went up by about $1 million compared to the previous year. But the next year, that part of the budget says "Services for Automation department were moved to Bus Division" and shows a $1.4 million decrease there, while at the same time the Bus Division budget shows a nearly $5 million increase (over 30%) in Services.

So… who knows how much they've spent, really? Maybe they don't even know. Their most recent insistence is that vehicles will be operating on Bay Street by June of 2025, while the Bay Street Innovation Corridor website says the program will be complete by December 2025, which I believe is when the BUILD grant requires it be complete.

Yes, hence why I think it's safe to say we are deciding color schemes on the Ford EV right now.

I'm still not convinced they'll let it be that, but I suppose we're being forced to see.

In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation, they include a letter from the FTA regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #382 on: July 26, 2023, 07:15:52 PM »
It would be cheaper to either upgrade Skyway rolling stock or pay the federal government back than continue pursuing the U2C dream.

The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Atlanta has Marta, a downtown streetcar and buses. This Cumberland Hopper is equivalent to running an AV shuttle service around the Mayo Clinic campus. Its very silly of JTA to consider this first-last mile toy as a form of mass transit.
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jaxlongtimer

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #383 on: July 26, 2023, 07:28:35 PM »
In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation, they include a letter from the FTA regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

This.

I, and other, have repeatedly made the point that the supposed repayment to the Feds for killing the Skyway is (1) a red herring and totally overplayed, (2) could likely be forgiven if we asked nicely, especially since the Skyway was always an "experimental"/prototype/demonstration project or (3) would be cheaper to pay than to continue operating and investing in the damn thing.

JTA conveniently uses this excuse to justify soaking up ever increasing dollars from gullible City officials so they can pay JTA executives and consultants handsomely for managing a "major" project.  I suggest asking anyone on the City Council if they have personally reviewed the payback scheme JTA alludes to.  Perhaps the hapless Council should pay big bucks to a consultant to handle that for them like the stadium deal  8).

Ken_FSU

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #384 on: July 27, 2023, 07:27:35 PM »
The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Beep isn't a manufacturer. Their actual job in theory is to be a transit agency for places without transit agencies (such as master planned developments, college or medical campuses, places of that nature), but specifically for autonomous shuttles. So you (as the municipality, or developer/CDD, or BID) give them a contract to design, provide vehicles for and then operate a shuttle route, whereas you would normally have a transit agency design, provide buses and drivers for and then operate a bus route.

The vehicles are supposed to be manufactured by other companies, like Local Motors or Navya. But those companies have now gone bankrupt so they're either in a similar position to JTA in the early 2010s and having to figure out how to keep maintaining vehicles that are now out of production, or scrambling to find other companies (like ZF and Holon) to get them new vehicles on some reasonable timeline. Of course there's no way they're currently profitable right now so they have to do all this while interest rates continue to rise, constraining new VC money to fund operations and development while their costs continue to escalate.

So that leaves Beep two options until the technology works well enough to remove the attendants and have a consistent, high-quality vehicle that lets them reduce costs (whenever that happens):

1) Keep finding enough master planned developments and agencies willing to hand them few hundred thousand dollars at a time to run "pilots," or

2) Find a gullible enough, future-obsessed enough transit agency willing to hand them millions, potentially tens of millions of dollars to operate a shuttle route.

I wonder who that would be.

"The CID invested $400,000 in the Cumberland Hopper pilot program."

https://www.masstransitmag.com/alt-mobility/autonomous-vehicles/news/53067186/ga-what-we-learned-aboard-cumberlands-free-selfdriving-bus

Meanwhile, how much is Jacksonville on the hook (so far) for their autonomous car program? And when will that program be on the streets? This decade?

It's unclear, because they won't just tell laypeople that, get upset when you mention the known capital cost overruns, and City Council isn't curious enough about their $430+ million transit project to make them answer. JTA's most recent budget for FY23 shows $4.5 million for U2C Planning (presumably a result of the RAISE planning grant) as part of the bus capital budget, but there's no mention of the U2C by name in the FY22 budget, while the FY20 budget shows $29.1 million in federal, state, and JTA funding for the Bay Street Innovation Corridor.

FY21 curiously mentions that under the Corporate budget, "Services is based on the expected need for the Automation department's continued progress in the testing and design phases related to" the U2C and Bay Street. That year, the Services budget went up by about $1 million compared to the previous year. But the next year, that part of the budget says "Services for Automation department were moved to Bus Division" and shows a $1.4 million decrease there, while at the same time the Bus Division budget shows a nearly $5 million increase (over 30%) in Services.

So… who knows how much they've spent, really? Maybe they don't even know. Their most recent insistence is that vehicles will be operating on Bay Street by June of 2025, while the Bay Street Innovation Corridor website says the program will be complete by December 2025, which I believe is when the BUILD grant requires it be complete.

Yes, hence why I think it's safe to say we are deciding color schemes on the Ford EV right now.

I'm still not convinced they'll let it be that, but I suppose we're being forced to see.

In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation, they include a letter from the FTA regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

Really appreciate all your updates on this, Marcus.

I think you might be the most knowledgeable guy in the city on this U2C boondoggle.

Hope you stick around Jax long-term! You're wildly smart for a dude your age. Would love to vote for you one day ;)

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #385 on: August 03, 2023, 11:31:43 PM »
^Appreciate it, Ken.

In the latest, JTA has sent out emails for the first episode of their new webinar series, "Autonomous Mobility."

It advertises an upcoming conversation between Nat Ford, Las Vegas RTC CEO M.J. Maynard, Houston METRO Innovation Chief Kimberly Williams, and Contra Costa Transportation Executive Director Tim Haile. The speakers would discuss:

Quote
  • The inflection point when these agencies began to chart a path towards an autonomous vehicle deployment.
  • The community needs and challenges they’re trying to solve.
  • The possible benefits regarding safety, sustainability, and technology. 
  • Regulatory issues and the historic opportunity for the U.S. to lead in the advancement and deployment of autonomous vehicles.
  • Updates on the innovative projects across the nation.

I personally don't really understand how the premise here exemplifies a technology that is ready to go, completing design and preparing to start construction. But I suppose they plan to demonstrate that on August 24th at noon.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #386 on: August 04, 2023, 12:59:14 PM »
In unrelated news, one thing I've been curious about for a little while now is that on JTA's website with U2C Documentation, they include a letter from the FTA regarding the remaining FTA obligation in Skyway vehicles, including a $1.6 million payback requirement to relieve federal interest in the trains. However, we've never seen the version of this letter about the Skyway's infrastructure, the cost of which I recall being a major part of the argument for why the U2C was the only feasible option to continue the infrastructure through the end of its useful life, which therefore meant we had to spend $246 million (or more, now) converting it into the road for autonomous vehicles. There were at one point claims by JTA that demolishing the Skyway could require anything between 40 to 50 million to be repaid to the FTA to the entire original federal contribution to the construction of the Skyway. But for the life of me, I don't believe we've ever seen anything from the FTA to back that up. I wonder why that is.

This.

I, and other, have repeatedly made the point that the supposed repayment to the Feds for killing the Skyway is (1) a red herring and totally overplayed, (2) could likely be forgiven if we asked nicely, especially since the Skyway was always an "experimental"/prototype/demonstration project or (3) would be cheaper to pay than to continue operating and investing in the damn thing.

JTA conveniently uses this excuse to justify soaking up ever increasing dollars from gullible City officials so they can pay JTA executives and consultants handsomely for managing a "major" project.  I suggest asking anyone on the City Council if they have personally reviewed the payback scheme JTA alludes to.  Perhaps the hapless Council should pay big bucks to a consultant to handle that for them like the stadium deal  8).

I was curious enough to finally put in a public records request about this. It took JTA about a week and a half, but they have produced two letters from the FTA dated October 16, 2015 and April 20, 2021. Unfortunately, they might actually be (mostly) right here. Here are the letters.

Now my read of this is that the full federal payback would amount to about $100 million (although I'm not sure if that would have to then account for inflation since the 90s), so whether that is still cheaper is questionable, but it does appear that there is at least some indication that the FTA told JTA they would require repayment.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Charles Hunter

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #387 on: August 04, 2023, 01:31:13 PM »
The big question - what is the "useful life" of the Skyway? For the guideway, it could be quite long 50-75 years, like any other bridge structure. For the vehicles, the useful life is probably significantly shorter, although many fixed-rail systems are still using vehicles significantly older than those here.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #388 on: August 04, 2023, 02:08:09 PM »
To my understanding, the useful life of the vehicles is about 31 years, which the current vehicles are getting close to meeting, while the guideway is about 50, which given most of the system only dates back to about 1998 means it still has some time to go.

The FTA provides a "cheat sheet" for vehicle lifespans and as of the 2019 letter to JTA suggested that the vehicles were pretty close to wrapping up.

The FTA policy guiding award rules, Circular 5010.1E, also include lifespan requirements.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #389 on: August 04, 2023, 07:20:14 PM »
You could stick a streetcar up on that guideway and not have to pay the feds back. That streetcar could also drop down to grade and connect urban neighborhoods in a fashion that's more appropriate then an AV and spur true TOD. Either converting it to streetcar or keeping it an APM is the answer here and that answer has always been there.
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