Author Topic: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....  (Read 152951 times)

simms3

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WAJAS

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #406 on: August 12, 2023, 07:51:42 PM »
It appears Lynx in Orlando is beating JTA to the punch on a downtown circulator AV. Best part is they did it without spending 250 mil USD.

https://www.golynx.com/plan-trip/riding-lynx/swan-shuttle.stml

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #407 on: August 12, 2023, 07:58:47 PM »
The joke has always been on us.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #408 on: August 13, 2023, 11:08:43 AM »
Lot that could be said here. Figure it makes sense to re-up this.

The Atlanta autonomous shuttle is now running... the manufacturer is... Beep.  The shuttle will be called " The Cumberland Hopper ".

https://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2023/07/25/driverless-shuttle-launches-cumberland/

https://ridebeep.com/

Beep isn't a manufacturer. Their actual job in theory is to be a transit agency for places without transit agencies (such as master planned developments, college or medical campuses, places of that nature), but specifically for autonomous shuttles. So you (as the municipality, or developer/CDD, or BID) give them a contract to design, provide vehicles for and then operate a shuttle route, whereas you would normally have a transit agency design, provide buses and drivers for and then operate a bus route.

The vehicles are supposed to be manufactured by other companies, like Local Motors or Navya. But those companies have now gone bankrupt so they're either in a similar position to JTA in the early 2010s and having to figure out how to keep maintaining vehicles that are now out of production, or scrambling to find other companies (like ZF and Holon) to get them new vehicles on some reasonable timeline. Of course there's no way they're currently profitable right now so they have to do all this while interest rates continue to rise, constraining new VC money to fund operations and development while their costs continue to escalate.

So that leaves Beep two options until the technology works well enough to remove the attendants and have a consistent, high-quality vehicle that lets them reduce costs (whenever that happens):

1) Keep finding enough master planned developments and agencies willing to hand them few hundred thousand dollars at a time to run "pilots," or

2) Find a gullible enough, future-obsessed enough transit agency willing to hand them millions, potentially tens of millions of dollars to operate a shuttle route.

I wonder who that would be.

But yeah, this makes a great deal more sense given the actual state of the technology (especially seeing the recent news out of San Francisco despite GM's massive investment compared to JTA and friends). Leveraging existing dedicated transit lanes to run a pilot shuttle in a circle during off-peak times (every 8 minutes at best is worse than the current Skyway's capability and well below the 3-minute frequencies promised in the U2C's TCAR studies) is about what this stuff is safely capable of, and still requires an on-board attendant.

Of course, this will only motivate Nat Ford to switch from his one argument for the U2C (that it's so innovative and game-changing so we need to do it) to his other argument (that everyone else is leaving us behind so we need to do it).

Donna Deegan can demand an end to this whenever she'd like.
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thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #409 on: August 13, 2023, 11:25:11 AM »
I'll take the second argument. Everyone else has already left us behind in the LRT world......so we really need to do it.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #410 on: August 16, 2023, 05:14:49 PM »
A friend who does transit videos on YouTube happened to be in town, and they did a video aboard the Skyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Maw8QfL-4IU
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #411 on: August 16, 2023, 06:31:09 PM »
The reactions to the video include this comment:

So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #412 on: August 16, 2023, 06:54:14 PM »
Makes sense for a cash grab for more tax money to light on fire. Does not make sense for anything else. That explanation sounds like a summary of tunnel-visioned decision making. AVs were not and still aren't the only options that could have been taken with the Skyway.....even when viewed through the federal lense.

I agree with the comment though. I'd be surprised if this becomes reality any time soon.
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jaxoNOLE

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #413 on: August 16, 2023, 07:32:24 PM »
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.


thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #414 on: August 16, 2023, 08:13:55 PM »
We're proposing to spend more money on this than (a) upgrading what we already have or (b) paying the feds back. Also, the Skyway has nothing to do with moving forward with something like LRT. They serve two totally different transit purposes and AVs are a different animal altogether. Only in Jax do we attempt mix them up together,  blow hundreds of millions doing so, only to end up with nothing in the end.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

marcuscnelson

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #415 on: August 16, 2023, 09:46:37 PM »
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

Nat Ford and Angie Williams might well be retired by the time the other shoe drops. Bernard Schmidt is already gone.

In regards to something I said earlier, it seems worthwhile to point out that Beep's last big fundraising round was a year ago, and only $25 million for what I doubt is a particularly cheap industry to be in. I wonder how long they can actually go without the massive funding influx from the U2C via their DBOM contract.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #416 on: August 17, 2023, 12:18:33 AM »
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

JaxoNOLE, read back a few posts on this thread for a discussion on the Federal "payback" re: the Skyway.  I seriously doubt JTA owes more than $24 million to the Feds based on the Federal letters to JTA posted by Marcus.  Further, based on one letter, they may owe as little as zero based on the fair market value of a system that can't be supported by the manufacturer anymore.  Based on the Federal letters posted, JTA appears to have grossly misled leadership and the public with regard to this issue and it warrant further investigation.

Jax_Developer

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #417 on: August 17, 2023, 07:42:31 AM »
But won't we owe the federal grant money back if the BSIC fails? How does exacerbating our grant money ball and chain help?

It seems fairly clear that repaying $90 million or whatever it is and getting something functional would be preferable to the pods failing, having to repay $90 + $12 million, and having nothing functional.

Nat Ford and Angie Williams might well be retired by the time the other shoe drops. Bernard Schmidt is already gone.

In regards to something I said earlier, it seems worthwhile to point out that Beep's last big fundraising round was a year ago, and only $25 million for what I doubt is a particularly cheap industry to be in. I wonder how long they can actually go without the massive funding influx from the U2C via their DBOM contract.

The EV market alone requires RD that far exceeds Beeps funding. Not to mention AV capabilities... The only legit manufacturer that could produce a real transit mover, like this, is Tesla. Simple as that.. it's not even a discussion really. The other car manufacturers are simply copying their technology and are all international.

Even if Beep can throw together an EV, it won't "truly" be AV capable.. period! What is being done now, is running these shuttles on closed courses with pre-programmed routes.. this technology does not magically convert to real world scenarios. Hence why I have mentioned so many times that if a trillion dollar company can't topple the last domino, what makes a small cap company capable of accomplish this ground breaking technology?

I'll be waiting for those Ford EV's on guided tracks that basically go just straight.

thelakelander

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #418 on: August 17, 2023, 08:23:42 AM »
^It just gets sillier and sillier the more one thinks about it. Why would anyone ride this slow moving minivan on a fixed elevated guideway as a serious form of mass transit?
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simms3

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Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #419 on: August 17, 2023, 08:32:27 AM »
YOUTUBE: The Jacksonville Skyway: A Failed Transit Experiment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Maw8QfL-4IU

This was in my feed recently...interesting reading the comments and watching the video and seeing what other people think.  The video creator is well aware of the autonomous vehicle plan, and is into transit (riding and videoing systems is apparently what he does).


On another note, I keep seeing other articles in my feeds about the driverless taxis in SF being disastrous all the time.  Here are just a few articles:

San Franciscans Are Having Sex in Robotaxis, and Nobody Is Talking About It
https://sfstandard.com/2023/08/11/san-francisco-robotaxi-cruise-debauchery/

Dashcam Footage Shows Driverless Cars Clogging San Francisco
https://www.wired.com/story/dashcam-footage-shows-driverless-cars-cruise-waymo-clogging-san-francisco/

Cruise Driverless Taxis Shut Down, Block Traffic Due to Network Overload
https://me.pcmag.com/en/cars-auto/18789/cruise-driverless-taxis-shut-down-block-traffic-due-to-network-overload

Waymo vehicle blocks bus at Nob Hill intersection
https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/video-waymo-vehicle-blocks-bus-at-nob-hill-intersection/

2 Waymo self-driving cars stall at SF Pride Parade street closures during heavy traffic
https://abc7news.com/waymo-stalled-self-driving-car-sf-pride-robotaxi/13427435/

Stuck on the Streets of San Francisco in a Driverless Car
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/28/technology/driverless-cars-san-francisco.html

San Francisco Officials Make Last-Ditch Effort To Block Robotaxi Deployment
https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/02/san-francisco-officials-make-last-ditch-effort-to-block-robotaxi-deployment/

As Cruise, Waymo takeover looms in SF, activist cone stunt goes viral
https://www.sfgate.com/tech/article/waymo-cruise-viral-orange-cone-stunt-18189342.php
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