Author Topic: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)  (Read 8078 times)

heights unknown

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The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

 





Agree wholeheartedly Charles taking into account IF Jax had stuck to the old city limit boundaries...then yes, a city of around 100,000 (Gary Indiana). However, I do believe that Jax, had it not consolidated, would have annexed more areas, neighborhoods, etc., gobbling up quite a bit to field a population of close to 300,000. Jax probably would have absorbed and sopped up most of that sprawl to the south, east, and west of the urban core.
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vicupstate

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One reason consolidation was pursued was because efforts to annex outlying areas had not been successful. Given the city population was in decline and the march to the (unincorporated) suburbs was well underway, I don't know why any outside neighborhoods would have agreed to annexation in the late '60's and '70's. 
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Tacachale

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^I mean, those same suburbs voted for consolidation.But either way, without one of those solutions or something similar, the old city was screwed.
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fieldafm

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Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!

thelakelander

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I get the impression Jax would have not expanded much. Sort of like what has played out in Miami, it was more likely that the city would maintain its size and many of the unincorporated suburbs would have become their own incorporated cities.

Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


LOL!
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tufsu1

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Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

vicupstate

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Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.
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jaxlongtimer

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Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.

With the millions they are starting out with I wouldn't compare them to the typical "couple just starting out."  8)  That said, as a "young couple" with their means, I would put them on the ocean at Atlantic Beach for now.  Tom Coughlin lives there so they won't be the first Jags to make it their home.

heights unknown

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Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.

With the millions they are starting out with I wouldn't compare them to the typical "couple just starting out."  8)  That said, as a "young couple" with their means, I would put them on the ocean at Atlantic Beach for now.  Tom Coughlin lives there so they won't be the first Jags to make it their home.
Tom Coughlin lives in Atlantic Beach? That's a new one on me...didn't know he lived in Jax. I don't care how hot headed he is, I really like that guy. He just couldn't adjust to how the NFL has changed. Trying to run it like the Military didn't work out and backfired on him. I hear he still has the foundation in Jax/Duval. I guess he couldn't stomach those brutal winters up north and opted for a much warmer climate in a town that he fell in love with (he does love Jax).
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JPalmer

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Tom Coughlin lives in Atlantic Beach? That's a new one on me...didn't know he lived in Jax. I don't care how hot headed he is, I really like that guy. He just couldn't adjust to how the NFL has changed. Trying to run it like the Military didn't work out and backfired on him. I hear he still has the foundation in Jax/Duval. I guess he couldn't stomach those brutal winters up north and opted for a much warmer climate in a town that he fell in love with (he does love Jax).
[/quote]

Plus his kids and grandkids have remained in the area.

bl8jaxnative

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The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again


Thanks for digging in.  Good stuff.

Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.

bl8jaxnative

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Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.


Maybe - Don't kow that for Sure.  If you still have that data handy would be nice to see households + the breakout fo rthe census tracts.  I'd imagine some like Durkeeville  shrank both in population + households.  Others like Riverside I'll bet maybe didn't grow in population but I'd venture added more households.

Zac T

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Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.


Maybe - Don't kow that for Sure.  If you still have that data handy would be nice to see households + the breakout fo rthe census tracts.  I'd imagine some like Durkeeville  shrank both in population + households.  Others like Riverside I'll bet maybe didn't grow in population but I'd venture added more households.

It's hard to find specific info from 2000 on households but looking at 2010-2019 trends, it looks like each neighborhood tells a different story.

Durkeeville lost a significant amount of people between 2000-2010 but has since been growing. This is despite a sizable decline in its housing stock. The average household increased from 2.3 to 2.6 people and the vacancy rate is around 24.5%.

Durkeeville
Population
2000 - 10,449
2010 - 8,671
2019 - 9,226

Occupied Housing Units
2010 - 3,746
2019 - 3,499

The Riverside numbers are skewed because it includes Brooklyn which has grown significantly so I looked at Avondale instead. Avondale saw a modest population decline in the 2000's and it's been stagnant in the 2010's. The overall number of housing units has slightly decreased while the number of occupied units has slightly increased. The number of people per household has held steady at 2 and the vacancy rate has decreased from 18.6% to 15.4%.

Avondale
Population
2000 - 10,624
2010 - 10,011
2019 - 10,018

Occupied Housing Units
2010 - 4,759
2019 - 4,888

thelakelander

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Pretty cool analysis. Have you done any other tracts from the old city?
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Tacachale

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Very cool, thanks for sharing. We should do an article based on this when the new census figures are out.

It's an interesting phenomenon where gentrification can cause a decline in population even though more houses are filled. This happened in my area in north San Marco. Houses that were formerly empty have been renovated but most people moving in have been single folks or childless couples. A house that had been an informal boarding house now has a lot less people than it did 8 years ago. The number of people on my block is the same if not lower.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?