Author Topic: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)  (Read 8090 times)

heights unknown

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I know what y'all are thinking LOL; don't he have anything else better to do? Is he a population buff let alone skyscraper super tall maniac LOL. Well, listen guys; I just feel that Jax can be so much more and should have been light years ahead of other Florida Cities; however, thanks to lazy, "good ole boys backroom fraternities," lackadaisical no goods, and I could go on and on, we, Jacksonville Florida, have missed our calling and missed the mark by light years of being the super city that we should have been, and could be; and I know most of you agree.

Alright, here goes, and yeah, "Heights" has nothing else better to do at age 64 (soon to be 65), retired Military, U.S. Government...but hey, I still got a brain thank God, and though I am disabled (Veteran), I can still do the desk job thing, consult, analyze, THINK, etc. Hey, it's all good! Anyhoo, I've raised this topic, and asked this question before; what would Jax' population be, to the best as we can ascertain (by zip code is the best way), had consolidation never been born or had come to mind? Again, I know Jax would have annexed some areas and would have slowly gained population once again (lost population in 1960). And yes, I did that, to the best of my knowledge and know how. One thing for certain; had Jax not consolidated, we would not have gained much population at all within the old city boundaries...and again, I am sure those boundaries would have been extended moreso than in 1968. But let's go with the old city boundaries (to the best that we can do)... ok?

Before I go into what Jax population probably would have been in the old city boundaries had we not consolidated, here's some facts:

1) There is only a little over 5,000 people in zip code 32202 downtown Jax.

2) The most populous area or neighborhood is southwest Jax just west and southwest of NAS Jax in zip code 32210 with a population of 57,704.

3) Zip code 32212 NAS Jax came in with the smallest population of any area/neighborhood; however, remember NAS Jax is a Military/Navy Base and really shouldn't count. Outside of NAS Jax, or, if we don't count NAS Jax, downtown Jax is the smallest neighborhood/area of Jacksonville.

Remember, these are the old boundaries, as best and as close as I could ascertain or get it; many zip codes have been extended past the old boundaries.

One tidbit of good news; had Jax not consolidated and had stuck to its old city limit boundares, Jax' population would be around 320,000, making it the 3rd largest city in Florida behind Miami and Tampa, and slightly ahead of Orlando and ahead of St. Petersburg.

Now then...we all know, or it could be argued that if Jax had not consolidated, it would have annexed more areas, neighborhoods, etc. Therefore, it is possible that the population would be much bigger than 320,000; how big we really don't know, but I would estimate possibly around 400,000 or more, slight larger than Tampa, and possibly just breathing on the neck of Miami. We shall never know. We will only be able to guestimate.

IMO 320,000 sounds about right and looks about right. Jax' skyline is of a city of around 300,000, not 900,000 plus.

Jax behaves and acts like a city of much less population than 300,000, and certainly not of a city of close to a million people.

All of this being said...I love Jacksonville. I was born in Jax and lived in Jax as a child and numerous times throughout my life; Jax was my stomping grounds in my youth, and when I drive around, old memories well up of what was here, what was there, because many of those old buildings downtown and throughout Jax have been demolished/razed. History out of the window. I am ashamed of not only the current Mayor and his administration and other leaders in our government, but also past Mayors and administrations and leaders that did absolutely nothing to make Jax the top tier city that she has dreamed of being, wanted to be, yearned to be, and could have been!

In closing, I hope something breaks loose soon for my Jax because my time is running out on this dirtball; and, you all in this forum don't know it or don't see it yet, but your time is wrapping up as well...yes, you all are middle aged now, and you still have some juice and still have some time, but the way that our leaders work it in this City, most or all of us will never see Jax reach her full potential or materialize into the City that she should be and has always dreamed of being.

HEIGHTS UNKNOWN (Garry B. Coston)

OLD CITY BOUNDARY POPULATIONS BY ZIP CODE
32202 - Dowtown                                5,061
32204 - Riverside                                7,919
32205 - Westside                              29,831
32206 - Springfield/North/East           19,014
32207 - Southside/South Jax             36,124
32208 - Northside                             31,242
32209 - Northside                             34,983
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969
___________________________________
TOTAL                                            319,958
 :) ;)
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Charles Hunter

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From this very forum, here are the pre-Consolidation city limits

1932 City Limits - also the 1968 boundaries




Your population estimates encompass too large an area.
Arlington was not part of the old city, in fact, none of the last few Zipcodes on your list were in the old city limits
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969

Total overcount 154,784, reducing your small-Jax population to 165,714

I don't know if all of 32207, 32208 or 32209, but I will grant them as being "in".

acme54321

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A lot of 32207 was not in the original city limits.  32207 is basically everything bound by University Ave and the St Johns/arlington Rivers.

thelakelander

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I'm pretty sure the preconsolidated city limits are closer to being under 100k than anywhere above 110k. It was around 100k with the 2010 census count.
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CityLife

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Jacksonville is really only the 6th or 7th largest City in Florida.

Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and possibly St. Pete all have larger populations within close proximity of their downtowns. They just all have substantially smaller city limits than Jax. The three south Florida cities have more density outside of their municipal boundaries than Jax does anywhere within it's boundaries. 

Duval is also only the 7th largest county in the state (2019 estimates):

Miami Dade-2.7 million
Broward-1.9 million
Palm Beach-1.5 million
Hillsborough-1.4 million
Orange-1.4 million
Pinellas-975k
Duval-950k


« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 09:30:34 AM by CityLife »

tufsu1

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^ yeah but likely to pass Pinellas very soon!!!

vicupstate

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^ yeah but likely to pass Pinellas very soon!!!

Like maybe tomorrow, when the 2020 census figures drop. Pinellas is not much over 1/3 of the land area of Duval though.
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Tacachale

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Jacksonville is really only the 6th or 7th largest City in Florida.

Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and possibly St. Pete all have larger populations within close proximity of their downtowns. They just all have substantially smaller city limits than Jax. The three south Florida cities have more density outside of their municipal boundaries than Jax does anywhere within it's boundaries. 

Duval is also only the 7th largest county in the state (2019 estimates):

Miami Dade-2.7 million
Broward-1.9 million
Palm Beach-1.5 million
Hillsborough-1.4 million
Orange-1.4 million
Pinellas-975k
Duval-950k

Counties or metro areas are the only way to compare. City limits don't mean much as most cities annexed additional land around the time Jax consolidated and since. But it is likely true that most of them have higher populations within a few miles of Downtown than Jax does at this point.
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thelakelander

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They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 11:22:10 AM by thelakelander »
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Zac T

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The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

 





thelakelander

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^That's good to see. It was in a rust belt like decline. Just masked by the population growth of suburban areas in a consolidated city.
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CityLife

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They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale were originally developed in the early 20th Century. There are extensive urban development patterns in the eastern sections of Palm Beach and Broward. In WPB, virtually everything east of 95 from Lake Park to Delray Beach (about 25 miles north to south) is gridded and urban. You have a population of roughly 300-400k people (probably 500-600k with seasonal residents included) in a 100 or so square mile area. In Broward, most areas east of 95 area are also densely populated from Deerfield to Hallandale Beach. If Fort Lauderdale included Hollywood, Oakland Park, Pompano and some of the other densely populated areas adjacent to it, it would have an urban population of 500k+.

Like Jax's urban core, the areas in the eastern portions of Broward and Palm Beach can accommodate a lot more population. Both are seeing a ton of infill growth happening and I wouldn't say they are only sprawl. Certainly nothing like the type of sprawl and leapfrog development you see in Jacksonville.

It would be interesting to see an overlay of the densely populated portions of South Florida over a map of Jacksonville.

CityLife

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The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

Nice research!

Gentrification often reduces population density. In places like Springfield, there are countless old rooming houses or multi-family units that now operate as single family homes. Or in Riverside/Avondale, working class families with multiple kids have been replaced by Sinks and Dinks.

thelakelander

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They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale were originally developed in the early 20th Century. There are extensive urban development patterns in the eastern sections of Palm Beach and Broward. In WPB, virtually everything east of 95 from Lake Park to Delray Beach (about 25 miles north to south) is gridded and urban. You have a population of roughly 300-400k people (probably 500-600k with seasonal residents included) in a 100 or so square mile area. In Broward, most areas east of 95 area are also densely populated from Deerfield to Hallandale Beach. If Fort Lauderdale included Hollywood, Oakland Park, Pompano and some of the other densely populated areas adjacent to it, it would have an urban population of 500k+.

Like Jax's urban core, the areas in the eastern portions of Broward and Palm Beach can accommodate a lot more population. Both are seeing a ton of infill growth happening and I wouldn't say they are only sprawl. Certainly nothing like the type of sprawl and leapfrog development you see in Jacksonville.

It would be interesting to see an overlay of the densely populated portions of South Florida over a map of Jacksonville.

All of those cities were pretty small in comparison prior to 1950, when Jax was still a 30 square mile city. While much denser today, due to the Everglades limiting the potential of leap frog development, the development pattern down there has traditionally been a much denser form of post WW2 era autocentric growth.

1900
Jacksonville - 28,429
Orlando - 2,481
St. Petersburg - 1,575
Fort Lauderdale - 336
West Palm Beach - 564
Lakeland - 1,180


1930
Jacksonville - 129,549
Orlando - 27,330
St. Petersburg - 40,425
Fort Lauderdale - 8,668
West Palm Beach - 26,610
Lakeland - 18,554


1950
Jacksonville - 204,275
Orlando - 52,367
St. Petersburg - 96,738
Fort Lauderdale - 36,328
West Palm Beach - 43,162
Lakeland - 30,851


1960
Jacksonville - 201,030
Orlando - 88,135
St. Petersburg - 181,298
Fort Lauderdale - 83,648
West Palm Beach - 56,208
Lakeland - 41,350

Over the last 30 years or so (primarily the last two urban development booms of the 21st century that the urban core of Jax somehow failed to take advantage of) has more of the major walkable development began to cluster in various areas throughout Eastern Palm Beach and Broward. Nevertheless, they largely missed that pre WW2 form of development and sense of place that you'll still come across in cities that had a compact +100k residents before WW2.

This would include several things we don't really think much about, like various architectural styles that were dominant in the late 19th and early 20th century or even dense concentration and early 20th century industrial development (ex. there are no similar scaled examples of the Ford Assembly Plant or Union Terminal Warehouse) in these places . The cores of Tampa and Miami have it, but it falls off quickly with the majority of Florida's other cities with a population above 100,000. Jax also has it, despite having a Detroit/Cleveland/Flint/Youngstown type fall from grace after 1950. It's an amenity that Jax should save what's left and rebuild around. It's not a fault of these communities and doesn't mean that they aren't denser and larger than Jax today. Just an observation that comes with post WW2 development patterns.

« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 01:38:54 PM by thelakelander »
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heights unknown

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From this very forum, here are the pre-Consolidation city limits

1932 City Limits - also the 1968 boundaries




Your population estimates encompass too large an area.
Arlington was not part of the old city, in fact, none of the last few Zipcodes on your list were in the old city limits
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969

Total overcount 154,784, reducing your small-Jax population to 165,714

I don't know if all of 32207, 32208 or 32209, but I will grant them as being "in".
Could be Charles. I was taking into account a lot of the old boundary being extended into today's zip code areas which I think have been extended since 1968. If we had stuck to the old boundaries (as I mentioned), with no annexation or "give" so to speak, your count probably would be correct and on mark.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2021, 05:06:56 PM by heights unknown »
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