Author Topic: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023  (Read 149205 times)

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #390 on: May 16, 2023, 10:29:59 PM »
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.
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jaxlongtimer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #391 on: May 16, 2023, 11:18:48 PM »
Precinct level results and turnout here.  Urban core carried Deegan despite lower turnout (e.g. 17% vs. 55+% in some Republican strongholds).  If Dem's would show up more, they could sweep this city away.

https://enr.electionsfl.org/DUV/3385/Map/ContestResults/48843/

Meanwhile, the election made national headlines on Google News, NBC, CBS, CNN... . Here is a sample:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrat-donna-deegan-flips-jacksonville-mayors-office-major-upset-rcna84791
« Last Edit: May 17, 2023, 02:07:36 AM by jaxlongtimer »

fsu813

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #392 on: May 17, 2023, 07:04:25 AM »
The best campaign definitely won!

Wish Deegan much success as she works to improve our city.

Snaketoz

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #393 on: May 17, 2023, 07:31:19 AM »
There is happiness in our house today.  No Daniel Davis or Jason Fischer.  Hope for Jacksonville.
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Steve

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #394 on: May 17, 2023, 08:29:28 AM »
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.

I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:

 - Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
 - On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
 - Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
 -The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
 - Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
 - With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.

Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.

My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).

JeffreyS

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #395 on: May 17, 2023, 09:57:36 AM »

Lastly, maybe Tim Baker, Susie Wiles and Brian Hughes take their nasty and mean spirited way of doing things and go play somewhere else.

Preach -  that would be wonderful.
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thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #396 on: May 17, 2023, 11:00:18 AM »
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.

I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months.

I agree that we're (Jax/Duval County) purple. Gillum and Biden also won here in recent years. That's one of the big things I try to explain to people outside of Florida about our politics. Duval is becoming more ethnically and politically diverse each year. It will be interesting to see how campaign strategy addresses these demographic shifts in future elections.
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thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #397 on: May 17, 2023, 11:09:13 AM »
Now that Donna has won, are we assuming the move jail talk will hit an extended delay and the Confederate monuments are gone?
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Steve

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #398 on: May 17, 2023, 11:10:07 AM »
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.

Steve

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #399 on: May 17, 2023, 11:11:37 AM »
Now that Donna has won, are we assuming the move jail talk will hit an extended delay and the Confederate monuments are gone?

I think Deegan will start the plans into motion on the Jail. To the point earlier about the "why" behind it, the Sheriff is pushing it and I doubt he's got a vested interest if the site becomes a convention center. But I think it takes a more logical timeline.

I think she'd need council to act on the monuments if I recall correctly. So thay may not happen soon.

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #400 on: May 17, 2023, 11:12:37 AM »
Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.

This was a waste of money of an attack to me. Maybe this is something to Davis' base but it was likely seen as a positive to 50% of the community. It's like people forget this city is literally purple. I'm not sure that parading the sheriff around like a Black show pony was effective either.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #401 on: May 17, 2023, 11:17:20 AM »
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.

Definitely agree. Fischer was horrible and has always been, Hogan was way to conservative for Jax and Crist......I still can't believe he was offered up as a candidate.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

Charles Hunter

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #402 on: May 17, 2023, 11:50:47 AM »
The Dem wins made the news aggregator CrowdPac News, via Politico, under the headline:
Dems beat DeSantis-endorsed candidate in Florida’s biggest city

https://www.crowdpac.com/news/663860

CityLife

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #403 on: May 17, 2023, 12:35:06 PM »
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.

I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:

 - Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
 - On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
 - Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
 -The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
 - Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
 - With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.

Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.

My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).

Well said. I think it's also important to realize how beloved Donna is in Jacksonville. Born and raised in Jax and was THE go to news anchor for a long time, back when people used to watch local news. The Donna Foundation and 26.2 With Donna show that her heart is in the right place and she has built a ton of goodwill in the community. Without looking at the numbers, I would guess she did better than usual at The Beaches, which is usually very red. Her and Tim are both very visible and beloved around there.

I think the race was definitely somewhat of an indictment on Curry/Davis, but I think the ultimate factor was Donna's lovability.

I went on a rant in this thread a year or two ago about how I don't think it is wise to elect someone with no experience managing or operating in local government; and still think that is true....but if anyone can make it work, she can. Hopefully she surrounds herself with the right people and is relatively moderate.

There will be some in national politics and media pushing her very hard to fight Desantis and knock him back if he decides to run for President. She will no doubt get made very appealing promises (maybe already has). I just hope she is focused on uniting and making Jax a better place, and not getting sidetracked with the Desantis stuff.

simms3

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #404 on: May 17, 2023, 05:15:13 PM »
I think the biggest thing is Candidate Quality Matters. Davis came across as inauthentic, as did Jason Fischer, Mike Hogan, Charlie Crist, and many others that have lost.

Definitely agree. Fischer was horrible and has always been, Hogan was way to conservative for Jax and Crist......I still can't believe he was offered up as a candidate.


Agreed with this.  After all my b****ing about the guy, I did end up voting for Davis.  A trusted source gave me some insights I was not even thinking about and I just couldn't get on board with Donna's overall agenda.  I held my nose while I did it, but I did vote for him.

I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items.  That's my hope.

Most importantly, I hope she is a mayor for all the people - that is presumably why she got the vote as Daniel didn't present himself well as a mayor for all people.  He really was a weak candidate and he chose a vicious campaign manager that I'm sure at the end of the day was a predominant reason why some consistent republicans I know voted for Donna this time.
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