Author Topic: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023  (Read 29764 times)

marcuscnelson

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #60 on: March 24, 2021, 12:50:21 PM »
Mayoral candidate Matt Carlucci has officially launched his website:

https://mattcarlucciformayor.com

It currently contains no specifics of his plans for the office.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Florida Power And Light

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #61 on: March 24, 2021, 08:30:57 PM »
I remember his Dad, the Senator.

Engaged with the Senator through a Conservation organization.
I found that the Senator held enmity towards Florida Wildlife Federation John Jones.
Jones worked well with Conservatives in the Legislature, crafted the Conservation and Recreation Lands Act which produced Jennings State Forest, Gianna State Park and Wildlife Management Area in our region, among other projects and directives, including alert  to what at the tine, thirty years ago, seemed as if a “ Conspiracy “; Brannon Chaffee/ First Coast Outer Beltway.

The Senator sponsored legislating naming the Florida Panther as Florida’s State Animal.
A local boat ramp is named in honor of the Senator.

Fascinating to see the political sparks fly back then with the State Animal proceedings.
I believe there was jealousy between the Senator and the Federation leader, and perhaps the Senator was concerned with CARL empowering an alternative to some develop aspirations.

The Senator’ claimed he “ Told It Like It Is”

At one point, Redistricting was cause for the Senator’s district to include Clay County. The Senator’s response was: “ Over my dead body!”.
Well, Clay did become the Senator’s district, the Senator made amends by supporting Brannon/ Chaffe - a key component of the Outer Beltway.
Certain State Farm Agents were curious allies in promotion of Brannon Chaffee, close compatriots to some that made speculative land purchase upon the scaling back of the Florida Game & Fish Commission/ Trust For Public Lands Brannon Chaffee Mitigation Park.

All of this will likely prove of no interest in a local campaign. But no slack granted to Matt in Conservation and Environmental issues.
Interesting to witness Matt promote “ Resilience “ while defending future development in certain areas.




Captain Zissou

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #62 on: March 26, 2021, 10:38:33 AM »
^This post of yours that I've seen and I found it both enjoyable and informative.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm assuming the alligator, but I'm curious to know what other animals were presented for the state animal.

Snaketoz

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #63 on: March 27, 2021, 08:06:25 AM »
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Al Ferraro is my city councilman.  On two occasions I called his office with problems.  On both occasions I got no response.  I called an at-large councilman-Matt Carlucci and got an immediate response from Matt, an email, and action.  I will never vote for Al for anything.

MusicMan

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #64 on: March 27, 2021, 10:32:32 AM »
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

ON a related note I found the vaccination process administered at Gateway to be extremely professional and efficient.

Snaketoz

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #65 on: March 27, 2021, 04:46:18 PM »
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

I agree. The Mask Mandate should stay until this pandemic is said to be under control by healthcare experts, not political hacks.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #66 on: March 28, 2021, 12:57:01 AM »
It's especially ridiculous because we're so close! Everything we need to close the book on this pandemic is either already here or quickly approaching, we just need to commit to being done with it. By next month we could actually be at the point of two weeks to stop the spread, those two weeks being the time for everyone's vaccines to fully kick in. And then that's widely it, at least domestically.

Yes, there's still plenty to do in other countries, especially the Global South, and it's in our interest to help them out so a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't come back and bite us in the butt, but we really can do this! Now's not the time to stop running 10 meters from the finish line.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Zac T

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #67 on: May 18, 2021, 10:31:58 AM »
2 years until election and the recent UNF poll shows Donna Deegan in first place with 19% support with Carlucci right behind at 18% although 20% of respondents chose the "someone else" option.

Does anyone know if Deegan is seriously considering a run for mayor?

Quote
Former newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.

A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/

vicupstate

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #68 on: May 18, 2021, 11:31:08 AM »
^^ More a measurement of name recognition than anything this early out.
"The problem with quotes on the internet is you can never be certain they're authentic." - Abraham Lincoln

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #69 on: May 19, 2021, 11:38:37 PM »
Here are all the results as reported at https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/.  Interesting that Davis, Morgan, Cumber and Ferraro are near rock bottom.  Will be interesting to see how this impacts their fund raising abilities.  Also interesting that a moderate Republican and two Democrats top the list.  Maybe voting against the school and gas taxes and kissing up to Curry and Khan are not such popular positions after all.

Quote
Former newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.

A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.

While not all observers are surprised that Deegan looks formidable in a first review of the field, the survey shows the power of name recognition and a durable brand.

Close behind is a declared candidate who is the leading fundraiser among filed mayoral hopefuls. Republican Matt Carlucci was the choice of 18% of those surveyed. Though his fundraising has slowed down, the veteran politico has roughly $700,000 on hand between his campaign account and his state-level political committee, Next Generation Jax.

Coming in third was a familiar face. Former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown has 14% support in the poll. Brown, who was narrowly defeated in 2015’s reelection campaign, lost in a comeback attempt in 2018, a primary challenge to Rep. Al Lawson. But that wasn’t for lack of support in Jacksonville, where he defeated Lawson handily.

Notable in this poll: Brown was far and away the top choice of Black voters, with 35% backing him.

Other candidates and potential candidates were second tier, or worse, among respondents. This includes a number of established players in the local political scene.

Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis has raised more than $2 million in four months for his Building a Better Economy political committee pre-candidacy, but Duval County voters shrug. The Westside Republican is the pick of just 6% of those surveyed.

Respondents didn’t seem thrilled with the other Council members beside Carlucci on offer either.

Second-term Democrat Joyce Morgan, who was elected to the City Council after a long stint on a local morning news program, is rumored to be looking at a run, and as of now is backed by just 5% of those surveyed, and just 10% of the Black vote, behind Brown and Deegan.

Even worse news was to be found in the results for Council member Al Ferraro, a second-term Republican who has declared a run, and raised just under $35,000 in two months. He scored just 3% support.

That tied him with yet another Council Republican, LeAnna Cumber. Cumber is exploring a run for Mayor, sources familiar with her thinking have suggested. If she were to run, she would be a strong fundraiser and the only female Republican and Hispanic in the race. But she would start with a modest base.

UNF pollster Michael Binder knows it’s early and these numbers are dynamic.

“Although it’s still very far out from the election, it is interesting to see a relatively even split between Democrat Donna Deegan and Republican Matt Carlucci,” Binder commented. “It will be even more interesting to see how these numbers change over the next two years, as more candidates throw their hats into the ring.”

The poll was conducted by email between May 11 and May 16th.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #70 on: May 20, 2021, 12:00:55 AM »
Like vicupstate says, this is basically a name recognition poll. Seeing how basically none of the people mentioned have articulated any real platform for Mayor, and only two have even declared they want the job, there's basically nothing for voters to have an opinion on other than, "oh yeah, I remember them." Deegan ran the highest-profile local race last year, so it's unsurprising that she's on top.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #71 on: May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM »
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

fsu813

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #72 on: May 20, 2021, 01:07:11 PM »
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?
« Last Edit: May 20, 2021, 01:33:01 PM by fsu813 »

Charles Hunter

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #73 on: May 20, 2021, 01:48:28 PM »
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)

Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #74 on: May 20, 2021, 01:59:45 PM »
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?

Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?