Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[marcuscnelson]

City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.

Question might be how much that matters for Davis. Was Curry recognized to general citizens before he snagged the primary? I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate. I wonder how his campaign is actually forming right now, in terms of getting ready to build a case to voters.

Like I said last year, the Democrats are going to be the more questionable race. The proof is now there that they can turnout county-wide more than once, but it's not clear how that plays into these off-cycle local races. Can they find a candidate who gets enough people out of bed?

In the long run, I wonder if there's any chance of a referendum to make these elections just part of the midterms instead of a few months after.

[tufsu1]

I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate.

That would be a repeat of Moran/Mullaney/Hogan in 2011.

[marcuscnelson]

Matt Carlucci has formally filed for Mayor in 2023, the first candidate to do so.

[marcuscnelson]

Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

[Steve]

Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.

[fsu813]

Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.

^ this. She'd be in competition with Davis more than Carlucci.

[Tacachale]

There are plenty of moderate R’s who’d vote for her and she’s got a lot of time to differentiate and define herself, but yes, she’s much more in the lane of Dan Davis, Rory Diamond, etc. than to Carlucci. In fact I think even a harder right winger than those three would have a tough time consolidating the Trumpites (and what’s left of the Curry coalition) in competition with them, considering their records and reputations.

IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

[Steve]

To that point, that's likely Carlucci's biggest challenge. His goal will be to recruit votes from the moderates of both sides. The far left will pick the Democrat (assuming they actually run someone) and the far right will back either Davis/Cumber/Other.

To me this comes down to where is that dividing line on both sides of the aisle. The Unitary format of Jacksonville's elections gives Carlucci a chance; had this been a closed party primary system he's be totally SOL.

[BridgeTroll]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

[Snaketoz]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

[marcuscnelson]

JAXChamber President Daniel Davis has begun gearing up. $1.3 million into a PAC account just last month.

[marcuscnelson]

I know, I know, I’ve been beaten over the head by “Daniel Davis is going to run for Mayor” by seemingly half of town, I’m just reporting that it’s formally happening.

[marcuscnelson]

Some of Davis’s donors.

[jaxlongtimer]

Some of Davis’s donors.

This proves Davis is already bought and sold by developers and the Curry crowd (look for more donations from Khan/Rummell/Petway etc.).

I don't expect much overlap with voters for a Democrat.  Or Carlucci who I think will be more likely to split votes with a Democrat than his fellow right wing/Curry Republicans (not sure there remains many moderate Republicans after the party has been Trump-erized).  I hope Jax voters wise up and don't let big money buy this election again.  They need to learn from the Curry experience.

It will be interesting to see how Davis/Cumber/Diamond or others of their ilk that end up running and who shared "values" more often than not with Curry (see school board bond delays, Lot J, pension fund, JEA before it blew up, shared campaign managers, etc.) will be responding to opponent accusations of same and how the voters will react.

[BridgeTroll]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!