Author Topic: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023  (Read 25992 times)

Tacachale

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8058
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #75 on: May 20, 2021, 02:03:34 PM »
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)

She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3531
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #76 on: May 20, 2021, 03:19:14 PM »
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)

She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.

You are probably right.  The folks I hear complaining about her appear to have a problem with the demographic changes in the western part of Arlington. Need to hope the progressive side of the ballot isn't too crowded.

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #77 on: May 20, 2021, 05:00:46 PM »
Is there another large city in the country where two former newscasters would even be considered top candidates for Mayor? I know Joyce Morgan is a councilperson now, but she doesn't seem to be one of the stronger ones.

Let's take a look at what current mayors of major Florida cities did before their roles:

St. Pete-Lawyer turned City Councilman then State Congressman
Tampa-Former Police Chief
Miami-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Orlando-Lawyer turned State Senator
Fort Lauderdale-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
West Palm Beach-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Tallahassee-MPA/MURP, governmental consultant turned County Commissioner
Sarasota-Lawyer turned City Councilor
Lakeland-Businessman
Pensacola-Businessman turned County Commissioner
Gainesville-Masters in Poli Sci turned City Commissioner

What do you see there? A lot of lawyers and all but one was a politician (or department head in the case of Tampa). Most of them rose from the ranks of their council. Transitioning from council allows them come into their mayoral terms with lots of institutional knowledge, understanding of processes, and a firm grasp on major initiatives and vision; as well as knowledge of strengths/weaknesses of the organization.

Jacksonville keeps electing people with absolutely zero experience working in local government, law, or politics; and then residents wonder why it's a horribly run city that doesn't come close to capitalizing on it's potential. The last three mayors have absolutely no experience in local government or law:

Lenny Curry-Accountant and former chair of Republican Party in Florida.

Alvin Brown-Got in with Bill Nelson and was gifted appointments to federal positions. Zero educational or work experience that would serve him in local government

John Peyton-No experience in local government and no educational background to prepare for it. Heavily backed by his family's influence.

Then our last two successful mayors:

John Delaney-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel, then Mayoral Chief of Staff.

Ed Austin-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel and State Attorney

Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor.


BridgeTroll

  • Global Moderator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14045
  • The average person thinks he isnt
    • London Bridge Pub
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #78 on: May 20, 2021, 05:06:16 PM »
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want  former newscasters or name recognition mayors?  Gimme local government participants...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3531
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #79 on: May 20, 2021, 05:20:05 PM »
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

Tacachale

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8058
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #80 on: May 20, 2021, 05:33:39 PM »
It's worth looking more at what people did while they were on City Council and in their previous careers, rather than what the careers were.

*Joyce Morgan: 30 years in TV journalism, two-term city council member.
*Donna Deegan: 30 years in TV journalism, founder of a charitable foundation
*Matt Carlucci: four-term city council member, former council president, and businessperson
*Daniel Davis: two-term city council member, former council president, two-term state representative, president of the Jax Chamber of Commerce
*Leanna Cumber: lawyer, one-term city council member
*Al Ferraro: businessman, two-term city council member

On paper these don't look terribly different from each other. But I doubt that Al Ferraro's years running a lawncare business really prepare him to be mayor of Florida's largest city government. And I don't believe Leanna Cumber's judgement is better than, say, Daniel Davis's just because she's a lawyer and he's not. Alvin Brown was not super successful as mayor, but would Mike Hogan with his years of experience have been a better pick? I don't think so. I'd look at *effective* government and/or leadership experience more than anything else.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #81 on: May 20, 2021, 05:46:32 PM »
My closing statement was "Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor."

It pretty much goes without saying that means someone who was effective in said role...

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1436
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #82 on: May 20, 2021, 11:06:26 PM »
Personally I'd be surprised if Morgan and Deegan don't talk and agree who should run. If they can unite behind one candidate early on and run a good campaign, either has a decent shot. Given the money advantage the GOP would be starting with, splitting their field seems risky. Don't know if the institutional structure to hash that out exists though.

In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1436
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #83 on: May 20, 2021, 11:09:58 PM »
Just to get back to news, Curry pretty heavily winking at Davis:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430896-jobs-davis/

Quote
“I think Daniel is a great executive and would be a great executive in whatever he decides to do next, if anything,” Curry told Florida Politics after the event. “I don’t want to speculate on what his plans are, but I think he’d be an excellent Mayor.”

And Cumber seemingly preparing to focus on… something.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430799-leanna-cumber-abandons-jacksonville-city-council-leadership-bid/

Quote
“The last few weeks have reinforced my core beliefs on policy issues related to taxes and infrastructure priorities. I do not feel that taxing our residents should be the default policy position of elected officials. And every investment we make with our constituents’ money should be made wisely and not wasted on useless transportation systems like the Skyway,” Cumber said, referring to the proposal to earmark nearly a quarter-billion dollars for improvements to the Reagan-era urban rail circulator from the proposed doubling of the surtax to 12 cents a gallon.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

fsu813

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1304
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #84 on: May 21, 2021, 06:52:25 AM »
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?

Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.

From her latest comments, sounds like she's chosen the anti-tax/gov waste platform. Ferarro has very little money, easy to surpass that, but he has far more credibility in that lane.

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #85 on: May 21, 2021, 02:33:00 PM »
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.

That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but let’s look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.

-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli Sci


As you can see, many of these mayors also come from prestigious academic programs.

NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor

I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2021, 04:00:08 PM by CityLife »

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #86 on: May 21, 2021, 03:28:35 PM »
To Marcus's point on someone from here running for Mayor next cycle. I'd like to see someone run for Council first...I think both Mike and Ennis would be great if they were interested. Though I think Ennis could get more accomplished in a Deputy Director type role at JTA or DIA. I'd also love to see KenFSU get on the DVI or DIA boards.

Tacachale

  • Administrator
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8058
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #87 on: May 21, 2021, 03:57:49 PM »
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.

That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but I'm going to serve you a nice dose of facts here.

Let's look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.

-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli Sci


Here is the list. As you can see, many of these mayors come from prestigious institutions.

NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor

I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.

I don't really disagree with you, except that the current slate of mayoral candidates for Jacksonville don't look much different than that list. It is different from the last 3 mayors we've had, however, none of whom had any government experience and who have been decreasingly effective. But what does it mean for the upcoming election?
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #88 on: May 21, 2021, 04:32:37 PM »
^The original point was that no other major city in America or Florida would have two former newscasters as mayoral frontrunners. Joyce Morgan has at least put the time in on Council, but Donna Deegan has no business being mentioned as a mayoral candidate, let alone front runner imo. She's a great woman and a Jacksonville treasure, but she doesn't have the first clue about how to run a large government.

I agree that Carlucci, Cumber, Morgan, and Davis all fit the bill as more traditional mayoral candidates, which is nice to see, but I don't see a rockstar candidate that will rally and unite everyone behind them. Cumber is still getting her feet wet as a councilwoman and doesn't have the name recognition or deep Jacksonville roots. I'm not sure Morgan has done enough on Council to excite anyone. Davis could be a great candidate, but he's going to be hurt by association with Curry. Carlucci seems solid and the best prospective mayor imo, but not sure he is a dynamic enough speaker/leader.

Really, I just think it's a disappointing group so far. Sadly, Jacksonville politics and government are so broken the people that could make the best politicians tend to want to stay out of the mud. It's not just a Jacksonville issue, but I think it's more pronounced there.

JeffreyS

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5931
  • Demand Evidence and Think Critically.
Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #89 on: May 21, 2021, 09:22:29 PM »
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want  former newscasters or name recognition mayors?  Gimme local government participants...
Degan at least has proven to be an engaged and accomplished Jacksonville native beyond her news career. She may not be your cup of tea but she shouldn’t be dismissed as just a name.
Lenny Smash