Author Topic: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023  (Read 145466 times)

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #405 on: May 17, 2023, 06:10:50 PM »
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items.  That's my hope.

Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council.  Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else?  Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades?  Just trying to understand another point of view  8).

Bativac

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #406 on: May 17, 2023, 11:43:33 PM »
As for the Mayor's race, that outcome was very surprising. The demographic shift here must be changing faster than we realize. A very historic night, as we've elected our first woman mayor. Congrats to Donna and impressed with Davis for conceding gracefully. Hopefully, the community can work together to create a better Jacksonville for all.

I'm not sure I agree. Remember, this is the same electorate that DeSantis took by 10 points - the demographics haven't changed in 6 months. I'm not a gambler but I would have bet cash money that Deegan would win. Here's why:

 - Deegan successfully pinned JEA and Lot J on Davis, and while he wasn't elbow deep in the cookie jar on JEA, he definitely had enough of his hand in there that he couldn't really deny it. Side note, credit Curry and Aaron Zahn on creating the most bipartisan issue in Jacksonville on not selling JEA. Congrats, guys.
 - On the other hand, Davis' campaign tried as hard as they could to make Deegan out to be the woke Mayor and tried to make us out like the next San Francisco (actual flyer). The problem is, the Sheriff, State Attorney, and a Supermajority of Council are all Republican, and the far left crap isn't happening. Plus, none of Deegan's campaign points come off as far left. Yea she had the Black Lives Matter quote right after the George Floyd Murder that Davis hit her on, but that was it.
 - Davis ran a historically terrible campaign...worse than Mike Hogan's in 2011 against Alvin Brown and that's saying something. I realize why they kept Mike Hogan locked up though I didn't agree with it - he was truly not a good speaker and says random craziness. On the other hand, they overcoached the crap out of Davis. Tacachale nicknamed him ChamberBot 2000 which was extremely accurate. The thing was...off the cuff he actually wasn't bad. Not exactly Reagan-esque or anything, but fine. Everyone that knew him kept saying, "This isn't the Daniel Davis I know." Why on earth he listened Curry, Baker, and the rest of the guys I'll never know. I realize his opponent is a former TV News Anchor whose job was to be in front of a camera, but it was too much.
 -The campaign very much sounded like Curry's third term....which fits with the above as it was the same people running it. The thing is, Curry isn't very liked. Very few people think he's doing an excellent job. Even the GOP rank and file think he's been, "ok, not great". It's obvious he's coasted in his second term, which I'm guessing is a result of the JEA sale falling through and no money for legacy projects.
 - Deegan got just enough of the GOP to flip....not a ton, but Curry and company have alienated just enough of the GOP that they had an axe to grind.
 - With all of that said: The county is overall pretty purple but leans red. Yes, DeSantis won 55-45 in November, but that was also aided by a roaring state economy post-covid, a VERY weak Democratic candidate that the dems seemed to be apathetic about, and a somewhat popular Senator in Rubio.

Bottom line: The county isn't as bright red as it seemed in November, but isn't really blue either. You can probably point to the Property Appraiser's race, where Jason Fischer did literally nothing except state he was endorsed by DeSantis, and Joyce Morgan has name recognition.

My biggest hope is that we all can come together behind Deegan as Davis said in his concession speech (really good BTW, clearly not written by Tim Baker).

Well said. I think it's also important to realize how beloved Donna is in Jacksonville. Born and raised in Jax and was THE go to news anchor for a long time, back when people used to watch local news. The Donna Foundation and 26.2 With Donna show that her heart is in the right place and she has built a ton of goodwill in the community. Without looking at the numbers, I would guess she did better than usual at The Beaches, which is usually very red. Her and Tim are both very visible and beloved around there.

I think the race was definitely somewhat of an indictment on Curry/Davis, but I think the ultimate factor was Donna's lovability.

Being on TV forever is 10000% why she won and I'm surprised anybody thinks otherwise. Being a Hazouri doesn't hurt either

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #407 on: May 18, 2023, 12:38:17 AM »
^ Dr. Oz was on TV "forever" and he still lost.  I think there is more to a candidate winning or losing than just being on TV.  No doubt, TV gives instant name recognition but you still need to back it up with something more to get the majority of votes.  Though, seeing how so many people "blindly" vote today, that may be a low bar  ;D.

In Deegan's case, she won a hard fought race with low Democrat turnout.  Republicans and independents that gave her the margin of victory would be the least likely to vote for her because she was on TV so I don't see how you can credit TV with her ultimate victory.

Charles Hunter

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #408 on: May 18, 2023, 08:55:26 AM »
I ran into the "TV Star" argument at church. From the people making the argument, it seems the reasons they subscribe to the TV Star trope to explain why they are unhappy their DeSantisite candidate lost may include (order may vary):
1. She was a TV personality for many years.
2. She is a woman - can't have a woman running a city
3. She is a Democrat
4. She is not a Trump/DeSantis acolyte (there are women, some registered Democrats, who fit this)
5. Her personal (and ancient) family history

Just my opinion. Your mileage may vary.

Jax_Developer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #409 on: May 18, 2023, 09:01:26 AM »
I think it was Davis' election to lose.. and he upset a pretty strong base of his by going after LeAnna & then Deegan the way he did. I think LeAnna especially, had a pretty active base that mostly switched to Deegan for the runoff.. considering her more moderate stance on things anyway. I think being a TV star gets the ball rolling, but certainly Davis did more harm to himself than good imo.

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #410 on: May 18, 2023, 01:06:41 PM »
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?
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Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #411 on: May 18, 2023, 01:28:24 PM »

After all my b****ing about the guy, I did end up voting for Davis.

Shocker of the year.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #412 on: May 18, 2023, 01:39:59 PM »
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?

It definitely helped, along with Fischer not being especially well liked by a segment of Republicans. He performed better than Davis and Morgan didn't perform as well as Donna, but not enough to change the outcome.

In contrast, Chris Miller in the at-large race got 112,641 votes, nearly as much as Donna. In that case, Miller didn't have as much of baggage stuck to him as Davis and Fischer, and his opponent didn't have the name recognition or funding of Donna and Morgan (he's an equally stand up guy, though).

That is to say, local Democrats have been off their game for so long that they don't have many people with wide name recognition, but when it happens, folks respond. Especially when their opponents hurt themselves with nasty campaigns, avoiding the public, far-right overtures, etc.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

vicupstate

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #413 on: May 18, 2023, 02:42:21 PM »
Quote
There will be some in national politics and media pushing her very hard to fight Desantis and knock him back if he decides to run for President. She will no doubt get made very appealing promises (maybe already has). I just hope she is focused on uniting and making Jax a better place, and not getting sidetracked with the Desantis stuff.

1. DeSantis is definitely running
2. There would be literally ZERO upside for Deegan to do this.   
3. It is rare for a Mayor to get directly involved in Presidential politics, unless they themselves are a candidate.
3. The FL Democratic party is too disorganized and weak to offer her anything in the way of support.
4. Even if the FL Dem. party were a force to be reckoned with, Deegan would not be running against DeSantis in the future because he is term limited. He can't run for Senate because the GOP already holds both seats.  If Rubio were to retire it wouldn't be until the 2028 cycle
5. Tampa, St Petersburg, Ft. Lauderdale, Orlando all have D mayors and hail from larger Metros, so Deegan is not a unicorn.
6. I don't recall such pressure on Alvin Brown from national entities when he was Mayor, and his win was an upset too.   
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Zac T

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #414 on: May 18, 2023, 02:47:22 PM »
In executive level races since 2018, Duval has voted for the Dem candidate by around 4% in 3 out of 4 of those races (not including 2019 since there was no Dem challenger). While there was a higher amount of Republican crossover in this mayor's race, I think there's a clear trend in the city that shouldn't be overlooked. 2022 seems to be an outlier as Democratic turnout was 16% lower than Republican turnout.

Jacksonville is a city that leans slightly blue at the top of the ticket and slightly red for down-ballot races. Should demographic and political changes continue, it's only a matter of time before those lower level races begin to start going blue as well.

District 11 (Southside, Bartram) has been moving left every election since 2016 and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Dem win outright in the next few years. After several close results, Oceanway has had it's first precinct go blue as it continues to experience an influx of young, diverse families. Same for several Northside and Westside precincts. For those that have been paying attention, this election result should come as no surprise. Duval isn't a lock for Republicans like it used to be and the high-rate of growth across the county is only speeding up those changes

vicupstate

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #415 on: May 18, 2023, 02:49:39 PM »
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items.  That's my hope.

Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council.  Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else?  Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades?  Just trying to understand another point of view  8).

I was about to ask this same thing, knowing full well his response will be full-on NEWSMAX/FOX gibberish. He actually use to be an independent thinker that saw through that kind of stuff.

 
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vicupstate

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #416 on: May 18, 2023, 02:56:33 PM »
This is a little long but is a very good top to bottom analysis of all the Countywide races. Well worth the time to read.

 https://mcimaps.substack.com/p/issue-108-jacksonville-gives-democrats?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=357835&post_id=122151993&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
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pierre

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #417 on: May 18, 2023, 05:05:22 PM »
What about Morgan? Do you all think her being a longtime local TV personality is the primary reason she beat out her DeSantis backed running mate for property appraiser?

I am sure it helped. But also helped by Fischer being a really bad candidate.

When he ran for Congress (very briefly) last year, he had an ad where his parents were more a focal point than he was. And in this race, he made it more about DeSantis than himself. He came across as incredibly weak and unlikable. And whenever he spoke about the property appraiser job, he didn’t seem to have an understanding on what the job does. At least once being corrected by Jerry Holland on Twitter. And he lost. I’m not sure what else is left for him to run for. I’m sure he’ll pop up in some city council or school board race at some point.

simms3

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #418 on: May 18, 2023, 06:06:46 PM »
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items.  That's my hope.

Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council.  Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else?  Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades?  Just trying to understand another point of view  8).

Well, lots of hot air there.  Not sure how to respond or if I should even try...
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simms3

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #419 on: May 18, 2023, 06:16:17 PM »
I hope Donna is able to find solid and competent people for her administration and I hope she is able to continue good things that are in process, able to streamline City Hall, and I hope she gets railroaded on some of her liberal agenda wish list items.  That's my hope.

Regardless of Deegan's personal views, real or perceived, what is the liberal agenda you think she could administrate as mayor, especially after DeSantis & Co. has stripped a big chunk of home rule from the municipalities and counties of Florida and that she will be dealing with a Republican majority City Council.  Is it infrastructure, advocating for more and better parks, giving the NW Quadrant some long overdue attention, following up on Republican Curry's promise to remove Confederate monuments from City property, creating a citizens advisory (i.e. otherwise powerless) board to work with JSO on improving its relationship throughout the City or something else?  Are you concerned she won't be a lapdog for developers or other special interests that have controlled this City for decades?  Just trying to understand another point of view  8).

I was about to ask this same thing, knowing full well his response will be full-on NEWSMAX/FOX gibberish. He actually use to be an independent thinker that saw through that kind of stuff.

 

I would say...on this site alone among forum members you're pretty much in the echo chamber and I'm the "independent thinker".  This argument doesn't really work.  You follow a progressive mantra and I follow a conservative mantra.  These are our individual philosophies based on whatever.  I would like to think we still agree on certain things.  I want better parks and better transit that isn't a stupid waste of taxpayer money (the U2C).  I didn't want the Ford Plant to be demolished and I can't wait for the Laura St Trio to be completed someday.  But sure, my politics is different from yours.  I would say that you're a lot more vicious than I am and I don't see us being friends in real life.  But that isn't to say we probably have things we agree on.

If I spit back out "urban intellectual" talking points regurgitated over and over again in The Atlantic magazine, you and I would simply be "agreeing".  But because I say things you assume are Fox News or Newsmax gibberish (and some of that is, I undoubtedly agree with a guy named Rob Schmitt or Eric Higby on Newsmax and I do love Tucker), I'm no longer an independent thinker but simply a regurgitator.

It's rare for people to have truly independent thoughts as we listen to others and combine what we hear from others into our own thoughts.  Your sources/influences and my sources/influences are different and that is ok.  I'll stick to mine and hope that you "see the light" one day, and I'm sure you're sitting over there saying the same thing.
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