Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023

[JeffreyS]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.

[urbanlibertarian]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!

LPF would be more "liberating"!  ;-)

[Steve]

Is it possible Davis isn't running and this is a PAC for Cumber?

I realize that every rumor I've heard is that Davis IS running. Just nonsense speculation maybe. They just seem like EXTREMELY similar candidates.

[marcuscnelson]

IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.

[Tacachale]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.

I'm a pretty middle of the road, consensus moderate from a (previously largely) Republican family. I was an NPA for 20 years until I switched to the Democratic Party last year. Two of my siblings switched from either NPA or the Republican Party. From what I can tell there are a lot of people like us among the new registrations.

[Tacachale]

IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.

Local Dems are at a huge fiscal and organizational disadvantage compared to the GOP. I don't think they (we) are anywhere close to par, but the demographic trends are in our favor, and Alvin Brown proved ten years ago that when conditions are right, voters and donors can swing for a Dem.

[marcuscnelson]

^Of course, although perhaps there's a chance for more support here going forward in hopes of making up somewhat for the losses down south, I don't know. The demographics should definitely work in our favor, assuming there aren't too many people latching onto the Curry train for crumbs like Lot J and the JEA proceeds. But good lord, we need candidates. At this rate, if no one steps up against Davis/Cumber/whoever this cycle I might have to come back after law school and give it a shot myself… 

[BridgeTroll]

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.

It certainly is a concern... my former party has lurched way too far to the right to include my participation.  I see the same happening to democrats... a slow but inexorable slide to the left which also leaves me out of that group. Not having a party or affiliation is liberating... as I can watch disgusted by their a antics from afar... 

[marcuscnelson]

There's an article about Davis in the Times-Union.

JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis, who is often talked about in Jacksonville political circles as a possible candidate for mayor in 2023, raked in $1.3 million in January for a political committee that could fuel a high-powered race if he does launch a campaign.

[marcuscnelson]

This is probably, almost certainly a joke, but local lawyer and former Biden campaign staffer Obi Umunna may be lightly testing the waters to consider a run for Mayor of Jacksonville. If he were to seriously launch a bid, he would be the first Democrat to do so.

[jaxlongtimer]

Nate Monroe weighs in on the mayoral race and concludes it is going to be hard for others to run against what may be a two man race between Carlucci and Davis given all the donors already committing, two years out:

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/

....The 2023 race is already an almost $2 million campaign. The two Republicans have set a high bar for entry into the race, laid claim to most of the local donors willing to write big checks and seem poised to suck up most of the oxygen for the open seat (Florida Blue executive Darnell Smith, who had sometimes been discussed as a potential candidate, donated to Davis last month)....

And, herein is the problem with local elections - it only takes 24 people to stack the deck for a candidate!

....Indeed, Davis' massive fundraising haul is a testament to the power of a small number of business leaders to shape Jacksonville elections and a stark illustration of how little space is left for more candidates. It is his strength but also a weakness his opponents will seek to pierce.

Consider: $500,000, or about 38 percent, of Davis' January total came from just five donors who contributed $100,000 each. Include those who donated $50,000 and it adds up to $700,000 from nine people — or about 54 percent of the total. Add in donors who gave $25,000 each, and just 24 people contributed a little over $1 million, or about 82 percent of Davis' total.....

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....

[marcuscnelson]

^So basically you could fill a small conference room with the number of people you need to buy an election. Peachy.

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....

Problem is that voters have to show up to clamor for that change. An off-cycle election with the possibility of a Democrat even being on the ballot up in the air makes that incredibly difficult. I can't help but wonder, there's got to be some way of getting around the money problem to a degree that keeps them competitive. Having to hope the right rich people haven't already hitched their wagon to someone is clearly not working.

[marcuscnelson]

Matt Carlucci has reportedly raised $400k for a political committee on top of $72k donated directly to his campaign. From a fundraising standpoint, that puts him behind Davis, but perhaps not as far as one would fear. It'll of course depend on how he spends it.

[marcuscnelson]

New article by Nate Monroe on Democrats in disarray.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ The bottom line I take from Nate's latest article is that the few elected Democrats in town are more concerned with their own necks over the good of the City, thus limiting their collective advancement via their party.

I am not sure the GOP'ers are any better here - they just have access to more money to support image building campaigns to hide their lack of effectiveness on behalf of the average citizen (witness the last 6+ years under the current mayor and going years back with their control of the City Council).

This appears to mimic the politics most everywhere today:  Politicos who care more about their next election and to win at any cost vs. performing their civic duty to their constituents.  The most current, but certainly not only, example is the GOP'ers standing by Trump, even after January 6th.

In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem:  They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.

The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing.  Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.