Author Topic: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023  (Read 33118 times)

Captain Zissou

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #105 on: November 09, 2021, 09:44:59 AM »
This is a blow to the Carlucci campaign as in the absence of a strong democratic candidate he would take a lot of the moderate democrat vote.  Davis will take the trumpers, Deegan will take the left, Matt is fighting for the middle, and Cumber gets a new bumper sticker for her Maserati (she still sports the sticker from her unopposed city council campaign).

Steve

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #106 on: November 09, 2021, 01:51:05 PM »
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?

Snaketoz

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #107 on: November 10, 2021, 07:40:47 AM »
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town.  He is the worst councilman I've ever had.  He would be a worse mayor.

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #108 on: November 10, 2021, 09:08:05 AM »
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.
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Zac T

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #109 on: November 10, 2021, 11:12:39 AM »
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?

If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up

tufsu1

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #110 on: November 10, 2021, 11:31:36 AM »
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town.  He is the worst councilman I've ever had.  He would be a worse mayor.
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.

agreed - but Davis is quite likely

Steve

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #111 on: November 10, 2021, 02:53:30 PM »
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?

If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up

A few reasons:

 - As you stated, most strong Rs will vote for Carlucci over Deegan solely because of the letter after their names.
 - Most Moderate Rs will not only vote for Carlucci, they'll happily vote for Carlucci as he is a very moderate R
 - Carlucci has a strong amount of respect from the independents in town who are connected

Additionally, I can see Carlucci appealing with Black Democrats, at least to a small extent:

 - He crossed party lines to endorse Nat Glover for Mayor in 2003 instead of endorsing John Peyton, his fellow Republican. This was on the heels of this: https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/jta-moves-ahead-new-director (Peyton was the deciding vote in selecting Morse over Blaylock to head JTA, then Morse left a year later.)

 - Carlucci has been quite vocal in his support for removing the confederate monuments, as has Deegan.

In short, do I think he'll pull more Black Democrats than Deegan? HIGHLY unlikely. But, given that it will be a very close race, I think in that scenario Carlucci edges her out.

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #112 on: November 11, 2021, 12:30:52 AM »
I like Deegan and Carlucci.  I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them.  That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement with the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start.  For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race.  I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).

I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections. 

I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2021, 09:57:31 PM by jaxlongtimer »

Zac T

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #113 on: November 11, 2021, 10:07:27 AM »
I like Deegan and Carlucci.  I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them.  That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start.  For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race.  I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).

I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections. 

I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.

I think it's a good thing that Deegan entered the race since it will motivate voters to turnout who otherwise wouldn't come. In 2019, low turnout due to the lack of a D candidate at the top of the ticket proved consequential in close council races

vicupstate

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #114 on: December 02, 2021, 04:19:01 PM »
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.
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thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #115 on: December 02, 2021, 05:02:56 PM »
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?
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Charles Hunter

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #116 on: December 02, 2021, 07:10:17 PM »
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?

He served almost 2 terms in an At-Large seat from 1987 to 1994, then elected to the District 4 seat from 1999-2003. Then to his current At-Large seat in 2019.  Term limits were enacted in 1991 limiting Council members to two consecutive terms. Thus, after serving your 8 years, you can sit out a term (or be elected to a different office) and then return for another 8 years.

Ken_FSU

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #117 on: December 02, 2021, 07:45:47 PM »
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.

Bet the Jags are happy about this one.

JeffreyS

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #118 on: December 02, 2021, 10:17:21 PM »
I wonder who he will endorse.
Lenny Smash

Captain Zissou

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Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
« Reply #119 on: December 03, 2021, 09:49:44 AM »
I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no.  She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis.  Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out.  I'm guessing he'll endorse her.