Why Did America Give Up on Mass Transit? (Don't Blame Cars.)

[bl8jaxnative]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.


So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

Let's walk through what we should be seeing.

For example, let's be conservative on job / FTE estimates in those millions and millions of sq ft added for commercial.  And let's just assume that no housing unit added has more than 1 person living in it.  So maybe we're looking at 15,000 more people on the corridor.

If 1,000 of them - 1/15th - used transit twice a day, one round-trip, 200 days a year, that would be 400,000 _additional_ trips per year.  In fact, anyone working full-time making that daily round trip would lead to traveling 235 - 265 days a year ( vacation, 4 10 hr days, etc ). 

So a mere 1/15th of the people ADDED to places right up by the light rail stations making a roundtrip 250 times a year means that LYNX would have seen it's ridership go from 5 million / year to 5 1/2 million a year.

Remember the core claim is that all this construction is happening because people will pay top dollar to use the train + bus.

If 20% of them did this, that would be an additional million and a half trips a year.   

Yet LYNX went from 5 million a year to 5 million trips a year --- FLAT -- for that decade.

And they're not eschewing the tram for the bus.  Total ridership for CATs went from ~26M in 2009 to ~25M in 2017.

What's that you say?  2017 ridership was down because of a fluke.  Well, 2016 was ~26M and 2010 was ~26M .... so ya, there's some year to fluctuation.  But total ridership for Charlotte Area Transit ( CAT ) is flat too.



All those new residents + all those new office + retails jobs being added 1/4, 1/2 mile by all fo the LRT stops may be filling up with people, but those people ain't taking transit any more or any less than they were before the LYNX tram was built and those ~10K housing units + ~2Msqft commercial were built.

[BridgeTroll]

Soooo.... we are just supposed to take your word on This?  Show some proof of these things please

[tufsu1]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.

So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

curious - have you rode the Lynx LRT? If so, did you see people getting on or off the train at stops adjacent to all of the new development?

[Adam White]

I don't know anything about Charlotte, but I have a question - What are the numbers for overall mass transit usage in the USA over, say, the past 10 years. Are the numbers going up, down or remaining flat?

Surely we should look at many cases before assuming that what is (allegedly) occurring in one city is indicative of the overall trend.

[BridgeTroll]

bl8jaxnative seems to have all the mass transit stats... he just doesn't want to actually post them....

[bl8jaxnative]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.

So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

curious - have you rode the Lynx LRT? If so, did you see people getting on or off the train at stops adjacent to all of the new development?

Correct.  People get off and on and stops.

If over a 10 year period you go from 5 million annual trips to 5 million annual trips, you have a big fat goose egg.  You have ZERO net gain in riders.   

[Steve]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.

So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

curious - have you rode the Lynx LRT? If so, did you see people getting on or off the train at stops adjacent to all of the new development?

Correct.  People get off and on and stops.

If over a 10 year period you go from 5 million annual trips to 5 million annual trips, you have a big fat goose egg.  You have ZERO net gain in riders.   

So....I have to ask. What is your source on numbers? According to this:

https://www.apta.com/wp-content/uploads/2019-Q4-Ridership-APTA.pdf

In the 2019Q4 report, Charlotte's Light rail ridership was up over 20% year to date over the previous year. Now they opened an extension of the line which likely helped the numbers, but that is a lot lager than ZERO net gain.

Here's another article:

https://www.charlotteagenda.com/162599/with-58-million-riders-and-3-5-billion-in-development-the-blue-line-is-one-of-charlottes-biggest-success-stories/

In it, they do bring up how the extension didn't (at the time) hit ridership numbers, but it's important to point out the extension was to UNC Charlotte, and they opened in March, missing much of the school year.

There's also the little tidbit that the original line cost $463M, and has spured $2.7B in development. That number includes completed and in work, so not all of that will be done. But let's say less than half is complete ($1B). I have to say I'd take an investment of $463M to result in $1B of private development. It darn sure beats Lot J.

[tufsu1]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.

So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

curious - have you rode the Lynx LRT? If so, did you see people getting on or off the train at stops adjacent to all of the new development?

Correct.  People get off and on and stops.

If over a 10 year period you go from 5 million annual trips to 5 million annual trips, you have a big fat goose egg.  You have ZERO net gain in riders.   

that doesn't mean that none of the riders come from the new TOD projects along the corridor....which is of course your assertion

[bl8jaxnative]

Please forgive me for being a spaz.  The industry runs away from admitting this to keep the $$$$$$$$$$ flowing.

So Charlotte goes from 5 million trips a year to 5 million.

curious - have you rode the Lynx LRT? If so, did you see people getting on or off the train at stops adjacent to all of the new development?

Correct.  People get off and on and stops.

If over a 10 year period you go from 5 million annual trips to 5 million annual trips, you have a big fat goose egg.  You have ZERO net gain in riders.   

that doesn't mean that none of the riders come from the new TOD projects along the corridor....which is of course your assertion

You're taking the statement literally because you don't have the decency to face up to your precious projects only exist because taxpayers re pissing away hundreds of millions of dollars on them.



It means:
1)  any of the riders from those new TOD projects were already taking LRT.   
2) any new riders gained from building apartments next to stations are offset by other LRT riders leaving

Station O/D data indicates it is mostly if not near exclusively #1

At best., no riders are being gained over the course of a decade.

Those aparatments are being built not because 99% of people are using Chartlotte's LRT.  They're being built because it's  rare place in the city a developer can build 300 partment units all at once to take advantage of efficiencies from scale. 

92% of Charlotte is zoned for SFH.  Developers have very, very, very, very few places they could potentially build this stuff.