Will St. Johns Cty. Be On Par With Duval Cty. One Day?

[thelakelander]

2070 is a long ways off. Duval will probably have close to three times that size by then. I wonder how many Florida counties will likely have more than 1 million residents by then?

[tufsu1]

The overall 2070 report estimates total population of nearly 34 million for Florida. That's about 50% more than today.

I would expect Duval County to have around 1.3 million people by then - still more than double St. Johns County prediction.

[Florida Power And Light]

It’s Official!
St Johns County Wins thanks to lower population.

[bl8jaxnative]

I would expect Duval County to have around 1.3 million people by then - still more than double St. Johns County prediction.

Maybe, maybe.   I can't say I have any deep knowledge in this sort of thing.

What strikes me is:

a) 50 years out is a hell of a long time.  My mind goes to 1950s St. Louis versus 2000s St. Louis.   Somehow one the biggest cities in the US not only went from 8th largest to dropping out of the top 20.  Pittsburgh's only city to have fallen as far in that way.

b) Not a lot of developable land left in Duval.   what is left is almost all in the west and northwest.  Historically these have been the more poor / less desirable areas.

c) ocean rise?  a lot of Duval is prone to flooding today.  A big part of the reason there's been less development to the north and northwest is because it has a lot of land prone to flooding.  Seems like a rise of a foot by the ocean would mean a fair number of properties in Duval would be prone to getting flooded out in storm ( + not rebuilt ), etc, etc.  This plays into my perception ( note, perception; not measurement ) of not enough land left.


Old census:
https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/decennial/1960/pc-s1-supplementary-reports/pc-s1-1.pdf

Sea rise:
https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/Climate%20Change%20and%20Sea-Level%20Rise%20in%20Florida_1.pdf