Author Topic: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco  (Read 15240 times)

simms3

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #75 on: September 08, 2020, 06:26:46 PM »
It's perfectly normal, I'd say standard procedure, to have concessions for a new community opening up.  I would not yet jump to any conclusions about our market specifically.  Now 2 years into the future if they were offering such concessions after lease-up and stabilization had presumably been accomplished, then one can reasonably assume that they are seeing a softening of the market, but not necessarily one that required rent cuts, merely concessions.

They want to fill up the ~500+ units they have in a timely manner and to do so they need to get bodies in and fast.  Upfront concessions are one popular way of doing so.
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simms3

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #76 on: September 08, 2020, 06:28:13 PM »
On a separate note, one can see that the Soba garage is full of cars when driving by on 95.  That is a great sign and anecdotal evidence that they have stabilized or are coming close.  Granted, that community is only 147 units and it has been a year since their soft opening of floors 1 and 4...but still, great sight to see for Jax.
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jaxlongtimer

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #77 on: September 08, 2020, 11:47:43 PM »
Then there is this about rental properties suffering (emphasis added)...

Quote
The gloom

"On the rental side, that's where we really see the shortfall in demand you would expect in a recession," Tucker says. "There's a huge shortfall in rental demand right now." Vacancy rates are climbing in cities around the United States.

In normal times, it would be good news that rents have stopped rocketing and are even falling significantly in cities like San Francisco and New York after a long period of astronomical increases. This seems to be playing out much differently than during the last recession, when home prices plummeted but rents did not.

But the emptying of apartments and the fall of rents is because of the pandemic and the collapse of employment, especially in the in-person service sector in U.S. cities. Almost 30 million Americans are currently receiving some form of unemployment insurance benefits. For many renters, this government assistance and the Trump administration's recent order through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to halt evictions through December are the only tenuous threads in a housing safety net.

Well, not the only threads in the safety net. Family also helps. According to research from Zillow, almost 3 million adults moved in with their parents or grandparents during the pandemic. This influx was largely 18- to 25-year-old Gen Zers, but they've joined a large population of millennials who were already living at home. As of April, a record-breaking 32 million American adults were living with their parents or grandparents.


Excerpt from https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2020/09/08/909680016/zoom-towns-and-the-new-housing-market-for-the-2-americas

simms3

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #78 on: September 09, 2020, 12:38:28 PM »
Not all markets are suffering the same...I am not currently working in the multifamily sphere, but I have my anecdotal hunches and my sources that Jax is not suffering nearly to the same degree as SF and NYC (and other like-kind cities).

Many people from NYC (families and otherwise) have PERMANENTLY moved out of the city.  There's a lot going on there that would provide such an impetus for that kind of exodus.  Jax is a winner from this, and both apartments and homes are the beneficiaries.  The same goes for SF though that migratory pattern does not benefit Jax from a geographic perspective.

If apartments were suffering in Jax as much as the NPR article suggests nationwide, then you wouldn't be seeing new projects continuing forward to the same extent they are.  In fact, I can only think of one local news story where conventional market-rate multifamily has been "diminished" from future plans, and that was not due to market forces, but rather local opposition (the recent article about the rezoning of the land at Hodges and JTB).  New projects have been announced, all previously announced projects have moved forward, and there have been some hefty sales thrown in for good mix, during this pandemic.  Class A rent collections have shown virtually no drop over this time period.  I know this from several sources, including a recent offering memorandum that I looked at (it's a talking point).  The same cannot be said for class C "working class" apartments, but the new construction apartments are doing just fine.

Now anecdotally, at least half of all JAX-born people I know who were living/working in NYC pre-COVID and pre-George Floyd (which really has been icing on the cake in terms of the effects seen and felt in the city) have moved back to Jax permanently and are either living with mom and dad until able to buy, or they have bought homes in the area, or in a couple cases are renting.

The effects of 2020 for the next year or two are drastic and Jax is a big winner, with major cities like NYC, Chicago, SF, DC, etc etc all losing big time.  SF is still shut down.  Can you imagine justifying the rent there if the restaurants aren't even open, let alone bars/clubs?  Many tech employers have gone to a "permanent" WFH situation allowing people to flee that city.  The homeless problem has gotten much worse over this time period, and nobody will say it publicly for fear of reprisal but the politics of that situation is not working for most people who live there.
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Adam White

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #79 on: September 09, 2020, 12:51:50 PM »
Obviously, anecdotal evidence doesn't carry much probative value. But I have found that moving to NYC oftentimes seems to lead to leaving NYC eventually and moving back to Jax anyway. I have a fairly large handful of friends (two handfuls?) who have all done that and all moved back before the pandemic and the recent uptick in protests. I do however also have a very close friend who moved home for a few months because his restaurant was shut down - but he's back in NYC and planning on staying. Who knows. I suspect that a lot of the headlines about people leaving NYC in droves are over-egging the custard more than just a little bit. We'll see.

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Steve

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #80 on: September 09, 2020, 02:44:57 PM »
Won't the result in cities like NYC/SF/etc. be that if a lot of people leave, then there will be a real estate reset (of some scale), and people that want to move to the city (but couldn't afford it previously) will now look to move in? So many price/SqFt in SF becomes 10x Jacksonville vs. 14x (making those numbers up).

I mean, this will end eventually (both the protests and COVID-19) one way or another.

simms3

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #81 on: September 09, 2020, 03:10:57 PM »
Obviously, anecdotal evidence doesn't carry much probative value. But I have found that moving to NYC oftentimes seems to lead to leaving NYC eventually and moving back to Jax anyway. I have a fairly large handful of friends (two handfuls?) who have all done that and all moved back before the pandemic and the recent uptick in protests. I do however also have a very close friend who moved home for a few months because his restaurant was shut down - but he's back in NYC and planning on staying. Who knows. I suspect that a lot of the headlines about people leaving NYC in droves are over-egging the custard more than just a little bit. We'll see.



Yes yes and yes.  However, having recently moved back from one of those two cities, my "social" world still revolves between the both of them and that's my anecdotal contribution in addition to what I see here in Jax among those from my "Jax" world who ended up in NYC (not many ended up on the west coast) and have all of a sudden returned with their non-Jax spouses with no plans to ever return.

I have seen a couple OMs from here in Jax and so I have seen hard data without even really searching for it.  A real estate PE friend of mine from San Francisco who is still in San Francisco actually brought one of the OMs here in Jax to my attention.  While "golden child" cities of the past decade such as SF have seen rents plummet relative to their peaks and have seen an actual exodus with hard data to point to it (and I think we all know the reasons why), the city of Jacksonville has not seen the same result despite having much higher COVID numbers than SF (over 3x the cases and 3x the deaths in Duval County than SF County).  At a minimum, across a wide swath of rental properties here in Jax, rents have remained stable due to an absence in reductions of collections, and rent growth is forecast to continue.

Going back to the initial concern, our rental market is doing just fine while other cities' are not.  Perhaps we can all celebrate the good news?  :)
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simms3

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #82 on: September 09, 2020, 03:25:50 PM »
Won't the result in cities like NYC/SF/etc. be that if a lot of people leave, then there will be a real estate reset (of some scale), and people that want to move to the city (but couldn't afford it previously) will now look to move in? So many price/SqFt in SF becomes 10x Jacksonville vs. 14x (making those numbers up).

I mean, this will end eventually (both the protests and COVID-19) one way or another.

True.  But it's much easier and less time consuming to wreck an economy, whether just locally or nationally, than it is to build or rebuild a booming economy.  We have all seen that this year.  SF is trying to solve its own local real estate issues (which are major issues for a number of reasons - Pinterest just paid a REIT prepared to break ground on an office building for it in Soma $85 million just to break the lease and not anchor the office building).

SF absolutely depends on extorting developers and landlords in that city, and those sources are looking to be a bit dry for the foreseeable future, so rather than ease restrictions and heinus laws that all but strangle real estate investors in that city without all the extra shit happening, leadership appears to be going in the other direction.  Of course that city has always been a long game for big money investors, but now it's nearly impossible to see what the future looks like even over just a 3-5 year horizon there, and that is probably a major deterrent for investors coming in.

Employers have been pulling out in a way that was inevitable even before the crisis, but that city's response to this pandemic has certainly expedited things.  This includes Uber, which all but went to Dallas, and other major employers.  Many many many restaurants have been forced to close for good, and the restaurant scene did a lot for the culture there.  Bars/clubs the same.  The elements that made SF cool have all but been eradicated.  The homeless issue has gotten completely out of control.  Gap, a store that was looted pretty badly, announced that it would permanently close its Union Square flagship (Gap is headquartered in SF, unironically).  Many other retailers have made similar announcements.  Conventions were already skipping the city before this year based on the street level issues that conventioneers did not enjoy.

My point is that yes, at some point in the future the city will rebound.  Is the city and its leadership taking action now to help that happen sooner rather than later?  NO.  In fact, the opposite.  Current leadership is ensuring that SF's rebound happens at some undisclosed time at some point in most of our lifetimes in the future.  Many would say that Bill de Blasio is also absolutely killing NYC and who knows when that city will be the same?

I am very bullish that the reduced rents in those cities will not offset the shitshow that is going on there enough for us in Jacksonville NOT to benefit from the stark contrast we provide for those looking to start life anew elsewhere.
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BridgeTroll

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #83 on: September 09, 2020, 05:20:55 PM »
Wow... proud of you to acknowledge what many have said only to be shouted down... That the homeless situation  in SF is grave and out of control.  Frankly it has been for awhile... San Francisco was once my second favorite city in the world... currently I  have zero desire to visit again. I want to remember it as it once was...
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Adam White

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #84 on: September 09, 2020, 05:55:09 PM »
Going back to the initial concern, our rental market is doing just fine while other cities' are not.  Perhaps we can all celebrate the good news?  :)

I've no idea - I didn't comment on Jax because I just don't know much about what's going on in the rental market these days. I simply said that I wouldn't be surprised if the stories about people fleeing NCY en masse are possibly a bit over the top.

But yeah, sure.
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Steve

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #85 on: September 09, 2020, 07:33:33 PM »
Many would say that Bill de Blasio is also absolutely killing NYC and who knows when that city will be the same?

I don’t know SF at all, but I know NYC better through friends and family that live there...on both the right and the left. Seriously, I can’t find anyone that likes this guy. He’s been terrible by all accounts.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #86 on: September 09, 2020, 07:53:24 PM »
To think he decided to run for President.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #87 on: September 12, 2020, 09:13:34 AM »
I wonder how much money has been burned fighting this and what it could have been used for to improve the surrounding community?
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Bill1234

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #88 on: September 28, 2020, 03:23:03 PM »
Wrong size San Marco has dropped their second lawsuit (petition for writ of certiorari). Litigation is over, developer can go forward with their plans.

marcuscnelson

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Re: Changed plans for Park Place at San Marco
« Reply #89 on: September 28, 2020, 08:55:31 PM »
So that's it?

I wonder how much money those people just wasted.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey