Author Topic: Jax Post-Jags  (Read 2552 times)

Kerry

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Jax Post-Jags
« on: December 19, 2019, 09:11:07 AM »
Not sure where this topic should go so please move to any appropriate section.

Just as an intellectual exercise, what happens to Jacksonville if the Jags were to leave?  Many cities have been hit with major employers leaving, military base closures, hub airports closing, and yes, even their pro-sports team relocating.

For sake of debate, let's make the following assumptions:

1) Jags leave for London at the end of next season
2) Jags pay off stadium debt as part of exit negotiations
3) Daily's Place returned to full City ownership (or however that deal was structured)

The Jags occupy a significant portion of the City's time and money, so where do those resources get redirected to?  What happens to the Stadium District, Lot J, the Shipyards?  Do the Hart Bridge ramps still come down?  Does JEA still get sold?
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Steve

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2019, 09:28:06 AM »
A few thoughts:

 - I think the city loses the Florida Georgia game over time - at best it becomes a rotation with Atlanta. Without the Jags you can't justify the financial investment into the stadium, plus you don't have a partner. This was a concern before the Jags.
 - Lot J obviously doesn't happen
 - Shipyards doesn't happen by Khan but let's face it - the first Shipyards plan was announced 20 years ago. Putting this entirely on Khan or the Jags isn't correct
 - Not sure JEA has anything to do with this, other than Curry is trying to move chess pieces and doing a crappy job.
 - I think the city makes an attempt for the Shrimp to break into AAA Baseball (though that doesn't happen overnight), as no other leagues are looking to expand at present (save for NHL to Seattle)
 - I do think it would help refocus downtown investment around the core and not split the focus with the Sports Complex

Kerry

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2019, 09:59:50 AM »
My first thought was what happens to the Florida/Georgia Game.  We have a lot of money from the Bed Tax that was previously spent on the Jags (stadium debt payments) which could be redirected at not only the Florida/Georgia Game but also as a permanent host for a Season Kick-off neutral game site (see FSU-Boise St this season).  It could also lead to more importance placed on the Gator Bowl.  A higher payout could bring in better teams.

Having worked at Coca Cola in Atlanta for several years, and this is only anecdotal, the Bulldog fans I know don't want the game in Atlanta.  They want the game to stay in Jax because it is a vacation weekend for them.  From the team perspective, I doubt either team wants the game to move.  It is basically a home game for UF and GA wants it as a recruiting tool (As an OU alumni this is all true with the OU/Texas game).

Lot J:
First let me say - yes I agree Lot J would be dead.  However, there are a significant number of Lot J supporters who say Lot J has nothing to do with the Jags.  From their perspective, why would Lot J be dead?  If it produces the revenue the Jags and Mayor claim it will then Khan should still be willing to fund his half - right?

JEA:
It is my belief the only reason JEA is even considered for sale is so the money can be funneled to Lot J, the Shipyards, and stadium renovations.

The Shrimp:
For the Shrimp to move to AAA a team would have to relocate.  I don't know of any considering that.  However, maybe Jax could lure some kind of road racing circuit (St Pete has the Firestone Grand Prix).

Downtown Urbanization:
Part of me agrees that this would be the logical new focus, but the same inept people are still in charge at City Hall.
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Steve

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2019, 11:14:07 AM »
My first thought was what happens to the Florida/Georgia Game.  We have a lot of money from the Bed Tax that was previously spent on the Jags (stadium debt payments) which could be redirected at not only the Florida/Georgia Game but also as a permanent host for a Season Kick-off neutral game site (see FSU-Boise St this season).  It could also lead to more importance placed on the Gator Bowl.  A higher payout could bring in better teams.

Having worked at Coca Cola in Atlanta for several years, and this is only anecdotal, the Bulldog fans I know don't want the game in Atlanta.  They want the game to stay in Jax because it is a vacation weekend for them.  From the team perspective, I doubt either team wants the game to move.  It is basically a home game for UF and GA wants it as a recruiting tool (As an OU alumni this is all true with the OU/Texas game).

I can't come up with a stadium/market that serves this type of role with a major recurring neutral rivalry game that DOESN'T have a NFL team has a primary tenant - with one exception and it's the one you happened to mention: OU/Texas is at the Cotton Bowl. This is my hangup. Every other major one is in an NFL stadium.

Lot J:
First let me say - yes I agree Lot J would be dead.  However, there are a significant number of Lot J supporters who say Lot J has nothing to do with the Jags.  From their perspective, why would Lot J be dead?  If it produces the revenue the Jags and Mayor claim it will then Khan should still be willing to fund his half - right?

I can't see this happening without the Jags being involved - bottom line.

JEA:
It is my belief the only reason JEA is even considered for sale is so the money can be funneled to Lot J, the Shipyards, and stadium renovations.

I'm not with you here. Would some money be funneled this way? Likely. Was this the only place money would be funneled? I highly doubt it.

The Shrimp:
For the Shrimp to move to AAA a team would have to relocate.  I don't know of any considering that.  However, maybe Jax could lure some kind of road racing circuit (St Pete has the Firestone Grand Prix).

Not true - the Shrimp could become a AAA team....IF the Shrimp signed an affiliation agreement with a MLB team AND they'd then likely "swap" with an existing AAA team to join either the Pacific Coast League or the International League. The franchise that's now the Shrimp was at one point  a AAA team - it was a while but it was at one point. Babby isn't hugely in favor of it right now - (paraphrasing) he believes the Jacksonville market could support it but especially in the Shrimp's "position" in town knowing the Jags are the big team he doesn't see that as the ideal role for them, as costs would go up significantly (teams typically travel via plane in AAA), so prices would absolutely go up. He made a point that he wants the Shrimp to be position as something that nearly everyone could afford and that goes away if they go AAA.

Downtown Urbanization:
Part of me agrees that this would be the logical new focus, but the same inept people are still in charge at City Hall.

No argument there.....but at least their crappy focus would be one place vs. two. Plus, if Jacksonville were to lose the Jags, then there would be a LOT of house cleaning in government by the voters!
« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 11:18:27 AM by Steve »

Tacachale

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2019, 11:28:41 AM »
Here are some effects:

Hotel stays and therefore the bed tax plummets. Most planned new hotels are canceled immediately.

Obviously there would be no more talk of stadium improvements, Lot J, the Shipyards, etc.

Nothing is ever built at the Landing site. Jags games were a major source of revenue for the bars and restaurants there, and that would be gone.

We fight like hell to keep the Florida-Georgia game and make the Gator Bowl relevant again. The former works and the latter doesn't.

Naive people hope that the loss of the Jags would lead to reinvestment in the Downtown core. The opposite happens: for a lot of people, the Jags are the only reason they think or care about Downtown, let alone go there.

We try to lure in MLS or something of that nature, spending as much on the stadium for that goal as we would have for football.

Jacksonville loses a big part of its culture and quality of life, and the civic pride that comes from thousands of people from all walks of life cheering for the same team.

Whichever mayor loses the Jags gets publicly tarred and feathered, and ridden out of town on a rail made from the stadium's less comfortable goalpost.
« Last Edit: December 19, 2019, 12:32:28 PM by Tacachale »
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vicupstate

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2019, 11:35:38 AM »
So a significant number of Jag fans drive enough distance to justify a hotel stay?  Aren't most within driving distance?
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Ken_FSU

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2019, 11:43:44 AM »
Here are some effects:

Hotel stays and therefore the bed tax plummets. Most hotel planned new hotels are canceled immediately.

Obviously there would be no more talk of stadium improvements, Lot J, the Shipyards, etc.

Nothing is ever built at the Landing site. Jags games were a major source of revenue for the bars and restaurants there, and that would be gone.

We fight like hell to keep the Florida-Georgia game and make the Gator Bowl relevant again. The former works and the latter doesn't.

Naive people hope that the loss of the Jags would lead to reinvestment in the Downtown core. The opposite happens: for a lot of people, the Jags are the only reason they think or care about Downtown, let alone go there.

We try to lure in MLS or something of that nature, spending as much on the stadium for that goal as we would have for football.

Jacksonville loses a big part of its culture and quality of life, and the civic pride that comes from thousands of people from all walks of life cheering for the same team.

Whichever mayor loses the Jags gets publicly tarred and feathered, and ridden out of town on a rail made from the stadium's less comfortable goalpost.

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Ken_FSU

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2019, 11:46:30 AM »
So a significant number of Jag fans drive enough distance to justify a hotel stay?  Aren't most within driving distance?

Warm weather + cheap tickets makes Jacksonville a very attractive destination for traveling fanbases.

Jacksonville does a ton of hotel business off the back of our home games.

I-10east

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2019, 11:52:23 AM »
The Jags aren't stopping anyone from developing the core. IMO the effects of a hypothetical Jags relocation would be very detrimental (opposed to any notable 'silver linings') for the city; it would be a huge blow.

vicupstate

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2019, 12:11:27 PM »
Quote
The Jags aren't stopping anyone from developing the core.

Not directly perhaps, but there is only so much money to go around, to say nothing of the 'focus' of those making the decisions. It is not a non-factor. It certainly has been in the past
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thelakelander

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2019, 12:36:57 PM »
The Jags aren't stopping anyone from developing the core. IMO the effects of a hypothetical Jags relocation would be very detrimental (opposed to any notable 'silver linings') for the city; it would be a huge blow.

I think something like delaying the convention center and shifting the location to a development likely not happening anytime in the foreseeable future does have a negative impact on others potentially interested in developing in the core. If there was a commitment to move the convention center next to the Hyatt, redevelopment of several properties within walking distance would have been more financially feasible than they are today. Now, waiting on something at the Shipyards simply means that market rate opportunity in the core is lost for the time being.
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thelakelander

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2019, 12:40:13 PM »
Quote
The Jags aren't stopping anyone from developing the core.

Not directly perhaps, but there is only so much money to go around, to say nothing of the 'focus' of those making the decisions. It is not a non-factor. It certainly has been in the past

Good point. The Jags need $233 million in public money for their project. That cash has to come from somewhere and at the expense of other needed things. Just imagine what $50 million of the $233 million would do for the core if invested there?
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bl8jaxnative

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2019, 01:05:46 PM »

The Jags occupy a significant portion of the City's time and money,

What's the annual city budget these days, $1.6Billion?  $1.7B?   

Kerry

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2019, 02:04:53 PM »
I seriously doubt the Jags even make a scratch in hotel stays.  They only have 7 home games.  If every room sold out on those days it is only it is less than 2% of a year's worth of availability.
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Steve

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Re: Jax Post-Jags
« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2019, 02:12:48 PM »
I seriously doubt the Jags even make a scratch in hotel stays.  They only have 7 home games.  If every room sold out on those days it is only it is less than 2% of a year's worth of availability.

This I can tell you is factually incorrect. But to your point - let's say it made a 5% change in overall occupancy. That's a LOT in terms of new development of hotels.

I can also tell you that in negotiating a few hotel contracts in the urban core, it's absolutely something that the Sales and Marketing teams at these hotels depend on (I also dated a Director of Sales/Marketing at a suburban Jacksonville hotel for about 8 months, but that's another story). This isn't political speak and they wouldn't bring it up just to be civic minded; these are employees whose commissions are based on this.

There's obviously some variability - if the Jags are playing the Chargers then the blip will be small. The Saints game on the other hand....holy cow did they bring some people.

Think about it this way - there's only about 2,000 hotel rooms downtown. That's incredibly small for a city our size. Having a couple weekends in a month where the hotel is near capacity, when the hotel's normally don't do particularly well on weekends is a major thing.