The "Malls are Dying" Cliche

[I-10east]

It's very cliche to say that "all malls are dying" like it's a monolith. Everytime now and then I come across many people on youtube, other websites etc saying that "Malls are dying and Amazon is taking other" like it's the gospel. There are many (both indoor or outdoor) flourishing malls, dead malls and everything in between within the US and abroad. Let's talk about the types of mall that are dying; they are almost all virtually in only two categories.

The first category is economically depressed areas (say Scranton, PA). The second category are in crime infested areas (typically in suburbs of large cities or within the city's core). They are all over the place, in cities like Nashville, Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston etc; personally, I will definitely put our own Regency Square Mall within this category, but some may disagree.

Let's talk about the liabilities within feasible malls (obviously not in crime or economically depressed area). They are mainly dying department stores; like Sears, Forever 21 etc etc. These issues are remediable IMO. Mall owners will have to get creative to fill in the dying stores when they pull out. It can be done, has been many times whether conventional or not.

Lets talk about the overall e-commerce money percentage in the US. It's only at 10 percent, not 100 percent Amazon like many think. Will the overall e-commerce sales percentage go up next year? Likely. Will it go up dramatically? Nope. Will it go up very very gradually? Yes.

The people in East Rutherford, Nj (or NJ in general) remind me of the people in Jax, tend to be very pessimistic. Part of the American Dream Mall there in NJ opened yesterday (indoor theme park, and ice skating rink). Yes I definitely know about the very long delays with this mall, I get it (the 2008 financial crisis, lawsuits among other things). The shopping and various entertainment venues will open in other phases at later times. Many are complaining online about the American Dream Mall saying the normal mall cliche, that the end is nigh because malls of course are dying...

When it's all said and done, this mall (55 percent entertainment/45 percent shopping) will have an indoor ski range, waterpark, high end shopping, luxury movie theater, and other things. Those various entertainment venues at American Dream will help the shopping flourish. Those are venues that most malls do not have, automatically making it a destination trip. They are sitting on a freaking gold mine. Here's the website below.

https://www.americandream.com/dream

[thelakelander]

It took this project 16 years to open. But it's not your traditional mall like Regency or the Avenues. It's a theme park with retail.

[Adam White]

Malls are dying - but that doesn't mean they're all dead or that new ones don't still open (and succeed). Clearly the St Johns Town Center is doing well - but it's fair to say that most of the rest of Jacksonville's big malls have seen better days.

[I-10east]

It took this project 16 years to open. But it's not your traditional mall like Regency or the Avenues. It's a theme park with retail.

Right on. They had many unfortunate issues; multiple changes in ownership, the Jets and Giants suing them over parking, then they counter-sued. Then of course, the 2008 financial crisis.

[I-10east]

Malls are dying - but that doesn't mean they're all dead or that new ones don't still open (and succeed). Clearly the St Johns Town Center is doing well - but it's fair to say that most of the rest of Jacksonville's big malls have seen better days.

I agree that the SJTC is at the top of the heap in Jax; although IMO Avenues Mall and Orange Park Mall will have some challenges ahead (with some dying dept stores like Sears affecting them, and other malls all over the country), but in no way within any 'doom and gloom' territory. Those two malls continue to be very feasible, and will have to get creative and adapt similar to how Oaks Mall did in G-ville (filling up closed dept store space).

The RCMP seems to be doing fine out there in the Northside. Regency Square Mall is the most notable 'doom and gloom' mall in Jax. Violent crime or relentless larceny is the death knell of a mall; Its an instant vanishing act to big spending clientele.

[Adam White]

Malls are dying - but that doesn't mean they're all dead or that new ones don't still open (and succeed). Clearly the St Johns Town Center is doing well - but it's fair to say that most of the rest of Jacksonville's big malls have seen better days.

I agree that the SJTC is at the top of the heap in Jax; although IMO Avenues Mall and Orange Park Mall will have some challenges ahead (with some dying dept stores like Sears affecting them, and other malls all over the country), but in no way within any 'doom and gloom' territory. Those two malls continue to be very feasible, and will have to get creative and adapt similar to how Oaks Mall did in G-ville (filling up closed dept store space).

The RCMP seems to be doing fine out there in the Northside. Regency Square Mall is the most notable 'doom and gloom' mall in Jax. Violent crime or relentless larceny is the death knell of a mall; Its an instant vanishing act to big spending clientele.

It's just that there are too many malls. The dying ones will either be closed and demolished or repurposed. Malls will still probably succeed where the market conditions are right.

But yeah - there are a lot of challenges facing retail today. I'd assume that, in addition to the disruption brought about by e-tailers (or whatever they call them) there is the classic issue of overproduction.

[I-10east]

^^In speaking of 'overproduction' Spirit Halloween costumes comes to mind, as they continue to fill up vacant stores all over the US.

[Adam White]

^^In speaking of 'overproduction' Spirit Halloween costumes comes to mind, as they continue to fill up vacant stores all over the US.

That makes me sad. Not only is it a monumental waste, the ones that are bought will likely be used once and end up in a landfill.

[Traveller]

I can't wait for Fashionable Male and Popular Girl to open at that new mall!

[bl8jaxnative]

"

The first category is economically depressed areas (say Scranton, PA). The second category are in crime infested areas (typically in suburbs of large cities or within the city's core).
"

There are a lot of _indoor_ shopping malls that have closed that fit neither of these.   And there are quite a few zombies that may not make it much longer.

Overall, building indoor malls is dead.   That shouldn't be surprising.  We reached peak Indoor Mall in the  80s.

[I-10east]

^^^The overwhelming majority of dead malls (esp indoor malls) are in those two categories (economically depressed or crime laden area); it's not even close. If you don't believe me, just look at one of the many many many dead mall channels on youtube.

IMO are indoor malls past their heyday (in terms of still being built)? Yes. Can you stick a fork in every indoor mall all over the country? No way. Like I said earlier, these malls can be everything from thriving to dead (no dept stores) to everything in between.

[bl8jaxnative]

If you look at retail construction, 99% of the square footage these days isn't indoor malls.  A single new indoor shopping mall opened last year.  The same with 2018.  IIRC not one did the 5-10 years previous to that.

I think it's getting a little overly lawyerstic to quibble that malls aren't dieing because they're still open.  The point of people talking about that... when they say that, they're not _literally_ pointing out that the whole indoor shopping mall thing is 100% kapoot, just that's it's nothing compared to what it used to be.  In the 1970s and 80s, you'd see a dozen or even 40 new indoor shopping malls opening every year. 

But now, you don't see that exact technology used like that.  The new retail building is like River City Marketplace or St. John's Center.

When we say the Ford Pinto's dead, we don't mean it's literally vanished.  Just that Ford ain't making it no more ( and never will again ).

[Steve]

I can't wait for Fashionable Male and Popular Girl to open at that new mall!

I missed this very brilliant movie reference! Watch out for the proprietor of Fashionable Male.....

[Steve]

If you look at retail construction, 99% of the square footage these days isn't indoor malls.  A single new indoor shopping mall opened last year.  The same with 2018.  IIRC not one did the 5-10 years previous to that.

I think it's getting a little overly lawyerstic to quibble that malls aren't dieing because they're still open.  The point of people talking about that... when they say that, they're not _literally_ pointing out that the whole indoor shopping mall thing is 100% kapoot, just that's it's nothing compared to what it used to be.  In the 1970s and 80s, you'd see a dozen or even 40 new indoor shopping malls opening every year. 

But now, you don't see that exact technology used like that.  The new retail building is like River City Marketplace or St. John's Center.

When we say the Ford Pinto's dead, we don't mean it's literally vanished.  Just that Ford ain't making it no more ( and never will again ).

You make some good points. Here's what I can't get past: The USA has (per capita) 23 SqFt of Retail Space. Canada is next, somewhere between 17 and 18. The rest of the world is below 15.

I realize we are a consumer society moreso than other countries and we tend to like bigger things, but this can't work in my eyes.