Author Topic: Hurricane Dorian  (Read 1051 times)

Tacachale

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Hurricane Dorian
« on: September 01, 2019, 10:13:45 PM »
How’s everybody doing? Hunkering down or leaving town? Any good hurricane parties in the mix?
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

jcjohnpaint

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2019, 10:24:28 PM »
Staying.  My wife works at a hospital, so it is hard to leave. 

thelakelander

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2019, 11:31:52 PM »
At a party now.
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BridgeTroll

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2019, 07:48:36 AM »
Was in Fernandina beach all weekend.  8)  My only drama is whether I have to work Tuesday and Wednesday.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

Snaketoz

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 09:49:22 AM »
Staying-in zone A.

Charles Hunter

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2019, 10:42:07 AM »
Not in a Evacuation Zone. Guess that means if my area floods, we are all effed.

Jim

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2019, 07:16:27 PM »
Can't go anywhere. I'll be onsite at work downtown for the next 2-3 days.

OldOrangeHause

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2019, 07:26:17 PM »
We went through Wilma, Floyd, and Irma. But, Irma sure showed the neighborhood a thing or two. Especially those who live on the bank of Ribault River. Got enough provisions to survive the duration. It's just one of the cons in being a Floridian. 

Snaketoz

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #8 on: September 04, 2019, 12:06:57 PM »
As usual, Tim Deegan on Channel 12 is by far the most accurate, calmest, weather guy around.  If you are new to the area and want the best hurricane info, go to Ch. 12.  Mike Buress and the mayor are pinheads.

tufsu1

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #9 on: September 04, 2019, 12:42:11 PM »
As usual, Tim Deegan on Channel 12 is by far the most accurate, calmest, weather guy around.  If you are new to the area and want the best hurricane info, go to Ch. 12.  Mike Buress and the mayor are pinheads.

I 100% disagree (with at least part of your statement) - Buresh is more knowledgeable and less dramatic than Deegan

MusicMan

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #10 on: September 04, 2019, 12:51:08 PM »
Continuing to keep my fingers crossed this storm stays off shore. We have dodged a big mess with this one......

Snufflee

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2019, 10:40:06 AM »
As usual, Tim Deegan on Channel 12 is by far the most accurate, calmest, weather guy around.  If you are new to the area and want the best hurricane info, go to Ch. 12.  Mike Buress and the mayor are pinheads.

His local knowledge is solid, but lets be real here. No local TV weatherman creates his own forecast. They all use the NHC models and ensemble discussions to guess.

I was a Navy Weather Forecaster for 21 years and the first rule in tropical forecasting is to never deviate from the NHC or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The sadder testament to me is the continued overall superiority of the European Ensemble models vs the US computer models. I can speak from experience while operating in the South China Sea to the Arabian Gulf, the Euro models were far superior and when we had access China produces a SCS and Hong Kong discussion in English for shipping and cruise ships which was again far superior to anything the DoD produced for operational forecasting.
And so it goes

Wacca Pilatka

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2019, 11:11:28 AM »
^ I can't think of the last time the Euro model wasn't distinctly more accurate than the U.S. model.
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Snaketoz

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Re: Hurricane Dorian
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2019, 03:38:49 PM »
As usual, Tim Deegan on Channel 12 is by far the most accurate, calmest, weather guy around.  If you are new to the area and want the best hurricane info, go to Ch. 12.  Mike Buress and the mayor are pinheads.

His local knowledge is solid, but lets be real here. No local TV weatherman creates his own forecast. They all use the NHC models and ensemble discussions to guess.

I was a Navy Weather Forecaster for 21 years and the first rule in tropical forecasting is to never deviate from the NHC or the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

The sadder testament to me is the continued overall superiority of the European Ensemble models vs the US computer models. I can speak from experience while operating in the South China Sea to the Arabian Gulf, the Euro models were far superior and when we had access China produces a SCS and Hong Kong discussion in English for shipping and cruise ships which was again far superior to anything the DoD produced for operational forecasting.
I agree with you on their sources.  Where I think they differ is Tim gives his calmer, non-hyped guess that in the past 3 storms has proven, at least to my family, friends, and myself, the forecast we have more confidence in.  Definitely the best since George Winterling.  We don't normally care which weather is on, but when there is a hurricane, we turn to Tim.  Even the NWS meteorologist at the mayor's news conferences often contradicted the mayor's dire warnings.