Author Topic: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?  (Read 1981 times)

jaxlongtimer

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #15 on: January 31, 2019, 07:02:47 PM »
I took the survey.  In one of the few places it allowed for an opinion, I voiced my concerns that there were far better transit options they should be looking at.  Also, thought it weird that they included destinations like Arlington and Northside points as "Downtown Jacksonville" options.

Interesting thought:  If autonomous and low maintenance electric vehicles drove down the cost of mass transit due to not having expensive humans driving/maintaining (I figure at least half the costs) vehicles such as buses, Disney style monorails, trolleys, etc. would the private sector suddenly be interested in operating mass transit?  What if taxpayers paid the capex and the private sector just performed operations in return for the revenue (much like a taxi or Uber uses our taxpayer roads but keep the fares)?  If so, could JTA and other mass transit agencies become irrelevant at some point?

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #16 on: January 31, 2019, 07:19:28 PM »
Seriously doubt it. I don't see a world where the private sector moves large volumes of riders being profitable off the farebox alone. They would need to take a page out of Virgin Trains USA's books by owning real estate around stations and developing it as transit oriented development.

I took the survey.  In one of the few places it allowed for an opinion,

Yes, this was pretty noticeable when taking the survey. While I do disagree that the Skyway superstructure should be outright razed, I do believe we shouldn't put ourselves into a box by forcing a select piece of technology down our throat. It just seems we're way too early in the game to eliminate all other options when there's still so many unknowns.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2019, 07:23:45 PM by thelakelander »
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Charles Hunter

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #17 on: January 31, 2019, 08:51:54 PM »
If the AV thing doesn't work out, with the center beam gone, and a running surface installed, the elevated guideway could be used for vehicles WITH drivers, and use the same ramps to get down to street level at the ends.

Tacachale

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #18 on: January 31, 2019, 09:13:24 PM »
If the AV thing doesn't work out, with the center beam gone, and a running surface installed, the elevated guideway could be used for vehicles WITH drivers, and use the same ramps to get down to street level at the ends.

Buses do go faster and carry a lot more people than the pods.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #19 on: January 31, 2019, 09:38:47 PM »
but they aren't fitting on the Skyway's superstructure.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

tufsu1

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #20 on: February 01, 2019, 08:55:35 AM »
but they aren't fitting on the Skyway's superstructure.

see this is why the Skyway is an outdated boondoggle ;)

MusicMan

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #21 on: February 01, 2019, 09:04:28 AM »
I love the "idea" of AV supplementing getting around downtown Jacksonville. Not sure how the implementation will go, but I'm glad they are trying it out.

I feel they will find some areas and specific uses for it that will be very popular.

1. Every JTA large bus (40 passengers?) I see is mostly empty.  Same for the Skyway. It's mostly empty. So capacity might seem important at first but if 12 people were on a AV it would be 'packed' compared to the current usage of the Skyway. Correct?

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #22 on: February 01, 2019, 09:59:39 AM »
There's a lot of wiggle room between comparing a large bus to what is essentially a minivan. To squeeze 12 people on those cars would require packing them like sardines and not allowing bikes on them. If we're looking at minivan numbers, there's a strong argument to get out of that game, and just subsidize Uber and Lyft drivers to serve the downtown area for you. Nevertheless, we're putting the cart before the horse when we can't even answer what type of setting and urban density we're designing for. We can be glad to try something out and be hopeful that they'll find some areas and uses for it that will be very popular but that's a pretty foolish way to plan and implement costly infrastructure for the future.

The Skyway currently averages 5,000 riders a day. I can't find it now, but I read somewhere in the BUILD grant a few weeks back that they're only estimating 1,250 riders a day for the U2C. IMO, we already have a numbers problem and that's with a currently sleepy downtown. Make a system that people can really use and you're really in trouble. Again, I'm not shooting down the technology, because quite honestly, it's not the thing that really matters or what the average transit end user cares most about. I'm just bringing up data collection, operational and technical analysis questions that need to be correctly resolved for a project to be successful for the context its intended to serve.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 10:02:27 AM by thelakelander »
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Charles Hunter

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #23 on: February 01, 2019, 10:07:06 AM »
Am I reading that correctly? That JTA is projecting ridership on the downtown circulator system will DECREASE by 75% from the Skyway to the AVs?  This is progress?

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #24 on: February 01, 2019, 10:43:28 AM »
I stand corrected. 2,581.....

Quote
Ridership STOPS Model - 1,171
Parking Ridership Gain - 268
Event Ridership - 916
Tourist Ridership - 225

Total Daily Ridership with Events - 2,581

https://www.jtafla.com/media/1715/build-bca-supplementary-documentation-jta-07192018-final.pdf (see page 10)

The project is estimated to cost $62.9 million in capital costs. Annual operating and maintenance costs with the transportation system are expected to cost $123,559 per year above current costs.

« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 10:48:55 AM by thelakelander »
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Tacachale

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #25 on: February 01, 2019, 11:13:55 AM »
I stand corrected. 2,581.....

Quote
Ridership STOPS Model - 1,171
Parking Ridership Gain - 268
Event Ridership - 916
Tourist Ridership - 225

Total Daily Ridership with Events - 2,581

https://www.jtafla.com/media/1715/build-bca-supplementary-documentation-jta-07192018-final.pdf (see page 10)

The project is estimated to cost $62.9 million in capital costs. Annual operating and maintenance costs with the transportation system are expected to cost $123,559 per year above current costs.

Aren’t the Jefferson and Convention Center stations closed down now? That would affect the numbers.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #26 on: February 01, 2019, 11:32:14 AM »
^That would have nothing to do with these projections. The drop is likely more related to the system being free now verses being charged a fare to ride the AVs.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 11:33:58 AM by thelakelander »
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Charles Hunter

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #27 on: February 01, 2019, 11:44:09 AM »
Have started reading the report.  Another factor in the ridership numbers is that the U2C does not include the Southbank portion of the Skyway.  (At least in what I've read so far.)

thelakelander

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #28 on: February 01, 2019, 11:51:46 AM »
So is that part shut down or do they anticipate keeping half the Skyway operational as is until another +60 million comes along for the that conversion? Also, where does the U2C come down to grade on Bay from the Jefferson Street Station? Seems like the Hyatt Place project across from the Landing limits the idea of using Hogan and Independent Drive.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2019, 11:53:43 AM by thelakelander »
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Charles Hunter

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Re: What do you think about Autonomous/Connected Vehicles?
« Reply #29 on: February 01, 2019, 01:02:13 PM »
OK, I've read the report, and have some observations
From the Executive Summary
Quote
The project will construct an AV, dedicated lane system, connecting Central Station to the Sports/Entertainment Complex approximately a mile and a half away.  Another segment of the system will connect Central Station to Hemming Park Station and Rosa Parks Station.
 
This document is just the Benefit Cost Analysis, perhaps the questions I have (below) are answered in the full BUILD Grant Application.  But, it does not seem to be on the JTA website.

1. The BUILD Grant appears to be only for a portion of the full U2C System, as it does not include the Southbank, or service to Jefferson and Jacksonville Transportation Center (aka Convention Center) Stations.  Although, it is curious these legs are not mentioned at all, but the north leg to Hemming Park and Rosa Parks Stations is mentioned.
2.  It assumes dedicated lanes along Bay Street, between Central Station and the S/E Complex.  The last sketches shown on this site do not appear to show dedicated lanes on Bay Street / Gator Bowl Blvd. between A. P. Randolph and WJCT - actually showing only the same 4 lanes (plus left turn lane / median) there now.  This should affect all of the assumptions in the benefit/cost analysis.
3. The capital cost is shown as $62.9 Million over the 30 year project life.  Be interesting to know what this includes - how much guideway conversion, vehicles for those 2 minute headways, anything toward the dedicated lanes, the ramp from the guideway to ground level, replacement vehicles over the 30 years.
4.  I don't understand the table (ES-2) showing "Summary of Project Costs" with $62.9 Million for capital costs, and $123,559 for operations and maintenance (O&M) costs; for Total Cost of $63.023 Million.  Since the $123K O&M cost is annual, shouldn't the total cost multiply it by 30, and include an inflation factor?
5.  According to Table 1, unless Transportation Cost Savings to users - parking, rideshare, and other costs users avoid by using the U2C - are included in the Benefit Cost calculation, the project returns only 54 cents for every dollar spent.  When Transportation Cost Savings are factored in, the B:C jumps to $2.42 in benefits for every dollar spent.  This calculation does not mention "net" Transportation Costs, reducing savings by the fare to use the U2C. Presumably, fare information is in the full application.
6.  The calculation for Travel Time Savings seems suspect.  The full system length (Rosa Parks to Sports/Enterntainment complex, and Central Station) is shown as 1.9 miles. The Travel Time Savings calculation (Table 6) assumes the average trip length as 1.9 miles. That does not seem reasonable, that all riders would ride the full length of the system.

OK, that's enough for now (except for the several typos/grammatical errors).

ETA - Lake - the BCA Report does not answer those questions, guess we need the full application.