Author Topic: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville  (Read 2014 times)

Tacachale

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The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« on: January 28, 2019, 09:00:00 AM »


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The 2018 Florida elections showed that Jacksonville's voting patterns are shifting along with its evolving demographics. For the first time in decades, Duval County swung for Democratic candidates in several statewide elections. What does this mean for the future of Jacksonville politics?

Read more: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/the-political-future-of-a-changing-jacksonville/
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JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2019, 10:42:03 AM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .
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Steve

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2019, 12:27:50 PM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .

I still contend the other thing that hurt was the candidate the Dems elected in the primary. To me, aside from the rhetoric and nonsense, DeSantis was like Trump, Gwen Graham like Hillary, and Gillum like Bernie. I consider myself Republican, but I didn't like Trump at all. I voted for Hillary. But, if the Dems gave me Bernie as my alternative, I think I would have voted Trump. Said differently, if the race was DeSantis-Graham, I would have voted for Graham.

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #3 on: January 28, 2019, 12:32:00 PM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .

I still contend the other thing that hurt was the candidate the Dems elected in the primary. To me, aside from the rhetoric and nonsense, DeSantis was like Trump, Gwen Graham like Hillary, and Gillum like Bernie. I consider myself Republican, but I didn't like Trump at all. I voted for Hillary. But, if the Dems gave me Bernie as my alternative, I think I would have voted Trump. Said differently, if the race was DeSantis-Graham, I would have voted for Graham.


Unlike most candidates, even those with money, Rick Scott is willing to spend what it takes of his own money to win. There's no competing with that. In both races, the returns were so close that any one thing could have turned the table in the other direction. I do agree that Graham would have gotten more votes from moderates and disaffected Republicans. But I don't know that she would have been as strong with the African-American and staunch progressive vote.

What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

vicupstate

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2019, 02:04:47 PM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races. 
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JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2019, 02:21:59 PM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .

I still contend the other thing that hurt was the candidate the Dems elected in the primary. To me, aside from the rhetoric and nonsense, DeSantis was like Trump, Gwen Graham like Hillary, and Gillum like Bernie. I consider myself Republican, but I didn't like Trump at all. I voted for Hillary. But, if the Dems gave me Bernie as my alternative, I think I would have voted Trump. Said differently, if the race was DeSantis-Graham, I would have voted for Graham.


Every election is it's own thing but the Progressive did better than the string of moderates the Dems have been running in this state.  Both in terms of total turnout and in margin. 

If it was just that the GOP was holding their nose and voting Desantis they wouldn't have had the turnout they did.  Both parties imo had the right candidate and it just turned out to be so close that it was a coin flip. It's a swing state that the Dems have been on the wrong side of close.
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JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #6 on: January 28, 2019, 02:24:31 PM »
Lisa King has given up running the local  party to run for the council. Perhaps the new leadership will work out.
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Snaketoz

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2019, 02:25:16 PM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.
I agree.  The Dems locally and nationally have problems countering the corner Repubs paint them into.  The GOP has an unbelievable edge when it comes to exploiting every Dem misstep. The Dems might just have to create a Atwater/Rove type of counter attacks.  Those guys were the best.  They made McCain and Kerry seem like the draft dodgers, questioned both merits for medals, patriotism, etc.  At least for now, Roger Stone is sidelined.  The Dems need to start running their own campaign like the GOP.  If we get another shutdown, run video of Trump bragging it's on him, and clips of Wilbur Ross talking about finances of the furloughed federal workers.  Stop being wusses Dems.

JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2019, 02:32:00 PM »
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Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2019, 02:37:12 PM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.

Pretty much. While they still haven't gotten over the hump even when bolstered by a statewide election, they are pretty much lost during off-cycle elections. It's telling that the Dems' best performance in two decades was followed by a local election where they don't even have a candidate for mayor and fully seven City Council seats. It's hard to take advantage of historic trends when you don't run anybody.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2019, 02:50:10 PM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.
I agree.  The Dems locally and nationally have problems countering the corner Repubs paint them into.  The GOP has an unbelievable edge when it comes to exploiting every Dem misstep. The Dems might just have to create a Atwater/Rove type of counter attacks.  Those guys were the best.  They made McCain and Kerry seem like the draft dodgers, questioned both merits for medals, patriotism, etc.  At least for now, Roger Stone is sidelined.  The Dems need to start running their own campaign like the GOP.  If we get another shutdown, run video of Trump bragging it's on him, and clips of Wilbur Ross talking about finances of the furloughed federal workers.  Stop being wusses Dems.

What they really need is to recruit new people who can win in countywide races, or district races where the demographics are shifting in their favor. Currently there are only 3 Democrats in any elected office who aren't reps for traditionally African-American districts: Tommy Hazouri, John Crescimbeni in At-Large council seats, and Joyce Morgan in council district 1 (Arlington). Hazouri and Crescimbeni have been in politics for decades, back when you had to be a Democrat to win, and Morgan had a lot of name recognition as a media personality. Crecimbeni is term limited this year, and Morgan will have some real competition from Bill Bishop (Hazouri will be fine). It's hard to compete when you don't have any recognizable candidates.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Steve

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #11 on: January 28, 2019, 05:35:39 PM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .

I still contend the other thing that hurt was the candidate the Dems elected in the primary. To me, aside from the rhetoric and nonsense, DeSantis was like Trump, Gwen Graham like Hillary, and Gillum like Bernie. I consider myself Republican, but I didn't like Trump at all. I voted for Hillary. But, if the Dems gave me Bernie as my alternative, I think I would have voted Trump. Said differently, if the race was DeSantis-Graham, I would have voted for Graham.


Every election is it's own thing but the Progressive did better than the string of moderates the Dems have been running in this state.  Both in terms of total turnout and in margin. 

If it was just that the GOP was holding their nose and voting Desantis they wouldn't have had the turnout they did.  Both parties imo had the right candidate and it just turned out to be so close that it was a coin flip. It's a swing state that the Dems have been on the wrong side of close.

Not sure I agree. I made a point of showing up and holding my nose and voting DeSantis because of who the alternative was. If the alternative was Graham I would have still voted (for Graham), but I contend a fair number of disenfranchised Republicans may have either done what I did, or not shown up.

Bill Hoff

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #12 on: January 28, 2019, 08:39:11 PM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.
I agree.  The Dems locally and nationally have problems countering the corner Repubs paint them into.  The GOP has an unbelievable edge when it comes to exploiting every Dem misstep. The Dems might just have to create a Atwater/Rove type of counter attacks.  Those guys were the best.  They made McCain and Kerry seem like the draft dodgers, questioned both merits for medals, patriotism, etc.  At least for now, Roger Stone is sidelined.  The Dems need to start running their own campaign like the GOP.  If we get another shutdown, run video of Trump bragging it's on him, and clips of Wilbur Ross talking about finances of the furloughed federal workers.  Stop being wusses Dems.

What they really need is to recruit new people who can win in countywide races, or district races where the demographics are shifting in their favor. Currently there are only 3 Democrats in any elected office who aren't reps for traditionally African-American districts: Tommy Hazouri, John Crescimbeni in At-Large council seats, and Joyce Morgan in council district 1 (Arlington). Hazouri and Crescimbeni have been in politics for decades, back when you had to be a Democrat to win, and Morgan had a lot of name recognition as a media personality. Crecimbeni is term limited this year, and Morgan will have some real competition from Bill Bishop (Hazouri will be fine). It's hard to compete when you don't have any recognizable candidates.

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jaxlongtimer

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2019, 11:48:03 PM »
The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.

This same thing was reported to me by an ultra-liberal friend who was "called down" to Jax from Boston by the Democratic party here on an "urgent" basis to poll watch for the Democrats in November.  He dropped everything to fly down several days early on his own time off and at his own expense, a true volunteer.  He was shocked and embarrassed by the local Democratic Party disorganization and said he would likely never respond to such a call in Duval County again.  They had no real plan for his services and misled him about his ability to be in proximity to the polling stations where he could create real value.  He said he could understand why Dems struggle to get elected here.  This from a diehard Dem!

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #14 on: January 29, 2019, 08:40:31 AM »
It was a smaller wave in Florida. The vote definitely moved left statewide just not enough to get Governor over the line. The Dems flipped a number of seats. The main mitigating factor was Rick Scott's 70 million dollar investment and long working outreach to the Hispanic community. Nelson couldn't come close to matching the funds and didn't even try with the hispanic outreach. So Scott was able to eek out a win and likely saved Desantis. Self inflicted wounds like Nelson's campaign and the Dems not running a Mayoral candidate in Jax have buoyed the GOP a little longer than in most swing states. (admittedly Trump being a little more popular here is also a factor). However the media tales that Florida is moving right are nonsense. #Swingstate .

I still contend the other thing that hurt was the candidate the Dems elected in the primary. To me, aside from the rhetoric and nonsense, DeSantis was like Trump, Gwen Graham like Hillary, and Gillum like Bernie. I consider myself Republican, but I didn't like Trump at all. I voted for Hillary. But, if the Dems gave me Bernie as my alternative, I think I would have voted Trump. Said differently, if the race was DeSantis-Graham, I would have voted for Graham.


Every election is it's own thing but the Progressive did better than the string of moderates the Dems have been running in this state.  Both in terms of total turnout and in margin. 

If it was just that the GOP was holding their nose and voting Desantis they wouldn't have had the turnout they did.  Both parties imo had the right candidate and it just turned out to be so close that it was a coin flip. It's a swing state that the Dems have been on the wrong side of close.

Not sure I agree. I made a point of showing up and holding my nose and voting DeSantis because of who the alternative was. If the alternative was Graham I would have still voted (for Graham), but I contend a fair number of disenfranchised Republicans may have either done what I did, or not shown up.

Yes, but if she couldn't rally African-Americans and progressives like Gillum did, it could have been a wash.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?