Author Topic: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville  (Read 2119 times)

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #15 on: January 29, 2019, 08:53:54 AM »
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What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.
I agree.  The Dems locally and nationally have problems countering the corner Repubs paint them into.  The GOP has an unbelievable edge when it comes to exploiting every Dem misstep. The Dems might just have to create a Atwater/Rove type of counter attacks.  Those guys were the best.  They made McCain and Kerry seem like the draft dodgers, questioned both merits for medals, patriotism, etc.  At least for now, Roger Stone is sidelined.  The Dems need to start running their own campaign like the GOP.  If we get another shutdown, run video of Trump bragging it's on him, and clips of Wilbur Ross talking about finances of the furloughed federal workers.  Stop being wusses Dems.

What they really need is to recruit new people who can win in countywide races, or district races where the demographics are shifting in their favor. Currently there are only 3 Democrats in any elected office who aren't reps for traditionally African-American districts: Tommy Hazouri, John Crescimbeni in At-Large council seats, and Joyce Morgan in council district 1 (Arlington). Hazouri and Crescimbeni have been in politics for decades, back when you had to be a Democrat to win, and Morgan had a lot of name recognition as a media personality. Crecimbeni is term limited this year, and Morgan will have some real competition from Bill Bishop (Hazouri will be fine). It's hard to compete when you don't have any recognizable candidates.

Come on down, Donna Deegan.

Deegan would be someone like with instant name recognition and presumably some money to back herself up. But the problem with her and other "Dems of means" is that they tend not to live in districts where they can win. I believe the Deegans live at the Beaches, which is part of districts that would never go for a Democrat. She would be a serious contender for an at-large council seat, if she'd settle for city politics rather than state. It's hard to see her running for other countywide offices like Supervisor of Elections, etc.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #16 on: January 29, 2019, 08:57:35 AM »
The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.

This same thing was reported to me by an ultra-liberal friend who was "called down" to Jax from Boston by the Democratic party here on an "urgent" basis to poll watch for the Democrats in November.  He dropped everything to fly down several days early on his own time off and at his own expense, a true volunteer.  He was shocked and embarrassed by the local Democratic Party disorganization and said he would likely never respond to such a call in Duval County again.  They had no real plan for his services and misled him about his ability to be in proximity to the polling stations where he could create real value.  He said he could understand why Dems struggle to get elected here.  This from a diehard Dem!

That really doesn't surprise me. The party has never really recovered from their fall from being the dominant party for a century to being second fiddle back in the 90s.

Something else that's struck me about the Democratic operation locally over the last several elections is how reliant they are on out-of-town operatives that don't really know Jacksonville or how to win here. They need a much stronger local game if they want to get out of their rut.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

vicupstate

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #17 on: January 29, 2019, 09:39:34 AM »
It takes time and effort to build a party at the grassroots, and you can't just fly someone in, every other October, for a month, and expect them to build something permanent. 
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FlaBoy

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #18 on: January 29, 2019, 10:34:05 AM »
Since this was the worst GOP cycle in a long long time, in which Gillum really focused in on Duval, I don't put a lot of weight behind it. Jax will probably be more of a GOP-leaning swing county, similar to what Pinellas is for the Dems, with uber conservative St. Johns, Clay, and Nassau surrounding it.

Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #19 on: January 29, 2019, 10:54:56 AM »
Since this was the worst GOP cycle in a long long time, in which Gillum really focused in on Duval, I don't put a lot of weight behind it. Jax will probably be more of a GOP-leaning swing county, similar to what Pinellas is for the Dems, with uber conservative St. Johns, Clay, and Nassau surrounding it.

Maybe, but returns in presidential races have been trending toward parity since 2008. In 2008, McCain beat Obama in Duval 210,537 to 202,618, or 7,919 votes. In 2012, Romney beat Obama 211,615 to 196,737, or 14,878 votes. This was a wider gap, but Romney only outperformed McCain by 1100 votes, even though the county was growing; the rest of the difference was Obama losing voters. And in 2016, Trump only beat Clinton 211,672 to 205,704, or 5968. Trump got almost exactly the same number of votes as Romney (and not much more than McCain), while Clinton outperformed Obama. The 2018 results track with that as well as the city's changing demographics.

Republicans can stay on top of this, at least in local elections, by upping their game. With the county losing core Republican voters and gaining thousands of ethnic minorities and younger people every year, Republicans don't have many more years to rest on their laurels. That'll be especially true if the Democrats ever get their act together, and/or districts are redrawn to reduce gerrymandering.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #20 on: January 29, 2019, 11:44:46 AM »
Since this was the worst GOP cycle in a long long time, in which Gillum really focused in on Duval, I don't put a lot of weight behind it. Jax will probably be more of a GOP-leaning swing county, similar to what Pinellas is for the Dems, with uber conservative St. Johns, Clay, and Nassau surrounding it.

Disclaimer I worked for the Gilllum campaign.  What makes you think he put extra focus on Jax?  I feel like we really went after his every county strategy. I do feel like his volunteer network in Jax may have been the best in the state.
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JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #21 on: January 29, 2019, 11:45:42 AM »
Quote
What's interesting about Jax is that major elections have been leaning Democratic, finally getting over the hump in 2018, but the local party still isn't winning consistently outside the minority access districts. IMO, Jax will start going Democratic more consistently only when the local party gets its act together.

The Duval Democrats seem very disorganized and out of their league in terms of winning campaigns. The fact that lots of money was flowing into the state from outside of JAX and even FL, leveled the playing field for statewide races last year. There is no equivalent assistance for the local races.
I agree.  The Dems locally and nationally have problems countering the corner Repubs paint them into.  The GOP has an unbelievable edge when it comes to exploiting every Dem misstep. The Dems might just have to create a Atwater/Rove type of counter attacks.  Those guys were the best.  They made McCain and Kerry seem like the draft dodgers, questioned both merits for medals, patriotism, etc.  At least for now, Roger Stone is sidelined.  The Dems need to start running their own campaign like the GOP.  If we get another shutdown, run video of Trump bragging it's on him, and clips of Wilbur Ross talking about finances of the furloughed federal workers.  Stop being wusses Dems.

What they really need is to recruit new people who can win in countywide races, or district races where the demographics are shifting in their favor. Currently there are only 3 Democrats in any elected office who aren't reps for traditionally African-American districts: Tommy Hazouri, John Crescimbeni in At-Large council seats, and Joyce Morgan in council district 1 (Arlington). Hazouri and Crescimbeni have been in politics for decades, back when you had to be a Democrat to win, and Morgan had a lot of name recognition as a media personality. Crecimbeni is term limited this year, and Morgan will have some real competition from Bill Bishop (Hazouri will be fine). It's hard to compete when you don't have any recognizable candidates.

Come on down, Donna Deegan.

Deegan would be someone like with instant name recognition and presumably some money to back herself up. But the problem with her and other "Dems of means" is that they tend not to live in districts where they can win. I believe the Deegans live at the Beaches, which is part of districts that would never go for a Democrat. She would be a serious contender for an at-large council seat, if she'd settle for city politics rather than state. It's hard to see her running for other countywide offices like Supervisor of Elections, etc.

She is very involved in bring it home Florida and that is likely where her focus will be in the short term.
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Bill Hoff

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #22 on: January 29, 2019, 09:46:24 PM »
Jeffrey, what's left to do? Thought that was simply the Gillum for Gov campaign (which is obviously over).

JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #23 on: January 29, 2019, 09:56:22 PM »
They haven't released a formal agenda as far as I know but politics goes on and on.  They are planing on trying to recruit from his volunteers and he will be somewhat involved particularly with voter registration.
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Tacachale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #24 on: January 30, 2019, 12:50:40 PM »
They haven't released a formal agenda as far as I know but politics goes on and on.  They are planing on trying to recruit from his volunteers and he will be somewhat involved particularly with voter registration.

I take it the strategy is to focus on the presidential election and not doing anything about the local elections?
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

vicupstate

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #25 on: January 30, 2019, 03:12:18 PM »
They haven't released a formal agenda as far as I know but politics goes on and on.  They are planing on trying to recruit from his volunteers and he will be somewhat involved particularly with voter registration.

I take it the strategy is to focus on the presidential election and not doing anything about the local elections?

That is a segway into one aspect of this discussion that hasn't been mentioned. Local politics really doesn't lend itself to Left/Right, liberal/conservative.  Yes, there are cities that wade directly into issues of the minimum wage, gay rights, etc. But by and large most cities are just concerned with public safety, utilities, infrastructure and economic development.

Before Delaney, all the Mayors were Democrats. While Delaney was the first GOP mayor, he didn't get particularly partisan on anything that I could see.  That is to his credit, IMO. 

All of that started to change with John Peyton and has only gotten more so since.

I think local Dems probably still hold  on to the view that local politics as not that partisan to begin with, so why spend the few resources you have on local races instead of state races.

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JaxAvondale

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #26 on: January 30, 2019, 03:36:55 PM »
Did anybody attend the meet the candidates in District 14 at Sunray last night? I had to leave before Q&A started.

JeffreyS

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2019, 05:39:08 PM »


My wife stayed last night. I was disappointed there were no questions about dealing with Police Pension.
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sanmarcomatt

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2019, 06:58:40 PM »


My wife stayed last night. I was disappointed there were no questions about dealing with Police Pension.

Probably no reason to be disappointed.At this point, the Pension is what it is.Curry reversed the slight improvement Brown finally made to the Delaney disaster with the existing DB plan and his new DC plan is a virtual certainty(So you’re saying there’s a chance for it not to be...)to be even worse for tax payers cost.I see zero possibility of any changes for the foreseeable future.Cue the “raise taxes or cut essential services”  threats in the future.
The best part is that the pain will probably not be really bad until the current clowns are long gone. Look for future interviews with Curry,Boyer, et al to sound just like Delaney’s on the subject. Well, when I left office...blah blah blah.And the sheep will just nod like the clueless bobble heads that they are.

God, I love the smell of financial ignorance in the morning.

Dammit. I think I just blew a New Years resolution to be kinder to the financially challenged. I almost made it to February!

Just be thankful for those “fiscal conservatives” and that the Big Government Liberals weren’t out there, or we could really be in trouble.


*Ok, I have 3 movie references in this post. Free gift for first one that nails all of them. Last one is subtle to try to fool the google cheats.

« Last Edit: January 30, 2019, 07:20:23 PM by sanmarcomatt »

jaxlongtimer

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Re: The Political Future of a Changing Jacksonville
« Reply #29 on: January 30, 2019, 08:02:39 PM »
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The best part is that the pain will probably not be really bad until the current clowns are long gone.

I agree with your perspective.  I think Curry could be vulnerable on this issue if the opposition found a way to "explain" that the pension-can has simply been kicked down the road at far greater costs to the taxpayers.  They could mimic Trump by dumbing down this "complex concept" to a handful of emotionally charged sayings, even if misleading or oversimplified.  Oh, the irony of a Trump-style campaign doing in a Trump protege  8).