Author Topic: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018  (Read 27072 times)

ProjectMaximus

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #180 on: April 28, 2018, 01:21:31 PM »
Financially, adding a regular away game in London makes roughly as much sense as adding a regular away game in Lakeland.

...if Khan owned an NFL stadium in Lakeland. I mean the premise of that argument was that owning the stadium allows him to generate revenue from the games being played there.

I also disagree that local fans would abandon the Jags if they did add a second home game in London. Khan is a straight-shooter, and he's clearly committed to the Jacksonville market. If he continues to invest in the city, and continues to field a winning team, I think most (educated) locals would see it as a smart business move that will ultimately benefit Jacksonville. If you watch the State of the Franchise every year, the Jags are very transparent about the challenges of being a small market NFL team, and about how holding a home game in London helps them to fill in that gap. They play in London to make the franchise more sustainable in Jacksonville. It really is that simple. Khan's proven himself to be a man of character over the years, and I guarantee you, he's not going to Irsay the Jags.

Lol maybe. They somewhat sensationalize and dramatize the issue in an attempt to gain greater leverage for future deals. I agree with you regarding Khan and insofar I believe and hope it is so. But I would stop short of any guarantees.

Also, there are fans that believe/d that the London games were a temporary measure to stabilize the franchise. There was an Ozone exchange yesterday where the fan stated that he had always assumed once the tarps came off and the team was selling out, the London game would be brought back to Jax. Ozone basically replied that the London game is here to stay...

KenFSU

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #181 on: April 28, 2018, 02:42:31 PM »
^Then those fans are wildly ignorant of the basic facts and holding on to assumptions that are easily disproven with a simple Google search. The Jaguars have been very open about their desire to make London a second home. The team has a formal agreement to play one home game a season in London through 2020, with an extension through 2025 if the league approves it. Khan very publicly lobbied for an extension through 2030 a few years ago. The game isn't going anywhere, it's an important part of the Jags business model, and no one within the organization is suggesting otherwise.

When I say that Khan won't Irsay the Jags, I don't mean there's zero percent chance the Jags will move to London one day. What I mean is that the Jags are very transparent about the economic health of the franchise, and we'll know years in advance if the Jags no longer consider Jacksonville to be economically viable. We're not just going to wake up to an unexpected headline one morning that the Jags have packed up and moved in the dead of the night.

To a previous poster's point that we have no way of knowing for sure and both sides of the argument are purely hypothetical, to me, that's where Occam's Razor comes in. Which theory makes the fewest assumptions? 1) Khan is telling the truth and wants to do everything possible to keep the team in Jacksonville 2) Khan has a secret ploy to move the team to London.

We have plenty of empirical evidence supporting theory #1. And, quite literally, zero empirical evidence supporting theory #2. He's invested over a hundred million dollars to improve the gameday experience in Jacksonville and to build new long-term revenue streams. He's stocked the front office with proven winners like Mark Lamping and local heros like Tom Coughlin. He's spent a ton in free agency and redesigned the uniforms twice to push sales. He's invested heavily in regional marketing to draw in more fans from nearby cities. He's made it more affordable to go to Jags games through concession reductions and clear plastic bags. He's recruited Cordish to build a huge development next to the stadium, and is pushing the city to remove the Hart Bridge ramps so the Jags can develop the Shipyards. He was at the draft party at Daily's Place randomly walking around high fiving fans, he had tears in his eyes when the city got its first home playoff win in 20 years, and he was deeply and visibly hurt when the media suggested the Wembley thing was a ploy to relocate the Jags to London. He's also widely considered to be one of the best owners in the league.

The only way the London conspiracy makes sense is if we assume that all of this is an act intended to lull Jacksonville into a false sense of security and then crush their hopes and dreams, cartoon villian style.

If he really wanted to move the team to London, ALL he needed to do was buy the team, maintain the status quo, and let the fanbase continue to erode until they sustained three years of consecutive financial losses and could move penalty free.


Adam White

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #182 on: April 28, 2018, 05:07:54 PM »
To a previous poster's point that we have no way of knowing for sure and both sides of the argument are purely hypothetical, to me, that's where Occam's Razor comes in. Which theory makes the fewest assumptions? 1) Khan is telling the truth and wants to do everything possible to keep the team in Jacksonville 2) Khan has a secret ploy to move the team to London.



So, those are the only two possibilities? Yet more assumptions.

What about 3) Khan's doing what he can to make money and will ultimately follow whatever path proves to be most lucrative - and maybe he doesn't even know what that is going to be right now. I'm not saying this is the case, I'm proposing it as an example to show you've created a false dichotomy.

Why does the only other option have to be some sort of 'secret ploy'? When you use that sort of logic, you can then fall back on the 'occam's razor' argument and it sounds valid, because consipiracy theories are usually total bullshit.

The problem I have with a lot of this conjecture is the fact that it's couched in such absolute terms: "Khan is going to..." "Khan will never...". There is simply no way we know what he will or won't do, what he is or isn't thinking. We don't even really know what kind of person he actually is - we only know the public face.



“If you're going to play it out of tune, then play it out of tune properly.”

CityLife

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #183 on: April 28, 2018, 06:50:59 PM »
Yeah Adam, that is essentially the line of thinking I've been trying to express. There is a possibility that IF Khan does acquire Wembley AND does run into issues with his redevelopment plans from the City or due to lack of a market, things could head south (or northeast) real quick. He's likely already recouped a portion of the $100 million he's invested in the Jags, and even if not, $100 million is a drop in the bucket. Particularly if he stands to gain more from a move to London, which is quite likely. To put it in perspective, $100 million to Khan is the same amount of money that $2600 is to a person with a net worth of $200k.

We're all free to believe whatever we want, but I personally will not believe Khan is 100% set on keeping the Jags in Jax permanently until he has a legacy type redevelopment project under construction.

sanmarcomatt

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #184 on: April 28, 2018, 09:06:18 PM »
I don't know Khan. For all I know, he is such a great guy, he makes Mother Teresa look like a bitch. Or maybe he has girls chained in his basement.

But I believe he "wants to make it work" ( errr....make lots of money and have tax payers contribute a shit ton of stadium money in the future)in Jax and will give it his best shot. If it "doesn't work" as he defines it, he will move the team in a heartbeat and the NFL will vote yes in record time. His team.I have no problem with that.

I  like the Jags being here, and a long time season ticket holder(with a 4 game blip last year) but he could move the team tomorrow and while I won't be happy, it will take me about by 5 minutes to get over it. I don't think it would hurt Jax at all. Probably help in the long term.

ProjectMaximus

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #185 on: April 28, 2018, 09:48:18 PM »
^SMM, it's the occasional post like this that you stumble onto that redeem all your other forum transgressions. Very wise words delivered so effortlessly. Enjoy your good dough, my friend, enjoy the good dough life.

KenFSU

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #186 on: April 28, 2018, 10:15:11 PM »
To a previous poster's point that we have no way of knowing for sure and both sides of the argument are purely hypothetical, to me, that's where Occam's Razor comes in. Which theory makes the fewest assumptions? 1) Khan is telling the truth and wants to do everything possible to keep the team in Jacksonville 2) Khan has a secret ploy to move the team to London.



So, those are the only two possibilities? Yet more assumptions.

What about 3) Khan's doing what he can to make money and will ultimately follow whatever path proves to be most lucrative - and maybe he doesn't even know what that is going to be right now. I'm not saying this is the case, I'm proposing it as an example to show you've created a false dichotomy.

Why does the only other option have to be some sort of 'secret ploy'? When you use that sort of logic, you can then fall back on the 'occam's razor' argument and it sounds valid, because consipiracy theories are usually total bullshit.

The problem I have with a lot of this conjecture is the fact that it's couched in such absolute terms: "Khan is going to..." "Khan will never...". There is simply no way we know what he will or won't do, what he is or isn't thinking. We don't even really know what kind of person he actually is - we only know the public face.





I'm purely talking intentions. We have no way of knowing what the future holds. The possibilities are limitless. I'm strictly disagreeing with the argument that Khan is actively plotting to move the team to London. Could it happen? Absolutely. We don't know what's gonna happen if a recession hits. Or when the stadium reaches end-of-life. Or when a less Jags-friendly mayor takes office. There's also the possibility that the NFL expands to London and Khan sells the Jags to launch a new franchise in London. There are zero guarantees. The market's still arguably too small, and the stadium is still, inarguably, too big. Everyone should really try to enjoy these next few years.

Snaketoz

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #187 on: April 29, 2018, 07:45:40 AM »
Being a small market, I believe the Jaguars are showing that they are committed to Jacksonville as long as Jacksonville is committed to the Jags.  This recent draft reinforces my opinion.  When the pre Kahn GM was here it seemed he drafted West coast and small college players.  This draft the Jags drafted a lot of SEC players that are more familiar to it's fans.  Jacksonville needs a vibrant entertainment district.  If Kahn gets that, the Jags are here to stay.  If he can only break even, he sells the team or moves it.

sanmarcomatt

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #188 on: April 30, 2018, 08:26:10 AM »
^SMM, it's the occasional post like this that you stumble onto that redeem all your other forum transgressions. Very wise words delivered so effortlessly. Enjoy your good dough, my friend, enjoy the good dough life.

Thanks for the high praise!

Even better, being linked publicly to transgressions has been on my bucket list. Check!
I have an unusual list.




Steve

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #189 on: April 30, 2018, 09:23:05 AM »
If he bought some stadium somewhere in North America, then I'd be concerned. There are still so many logistical challenges with a team in London it's not even funny. Yes, the potential money has a way of "easing" some of those, but I'm still not seeing this at any point soon.

I think the NFL would need to be in a position where they could base 2 (or ideally 4) teams in Europe, as the logistics for these teams (and their opponents) would be brutal. If you have 2 teams over there, then you can start to ease the number of trips across the pond - if you go over, then you play both teams, when they come over they play 2-3 in a row on the road, etc.

I also think that in order for this to happen, they are likely going to try out another city besides London to compliment it (perhaps Munich or Berlin). Not sure I can see 2 teams in London that then would have to fill the place a total of 20 times.

FlaBoy

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #190 on: April 30, 2018, 11:15:52 AM »
If he bought some stadium somewhere in North America, then I'd be concerned. There are still so many logistical challenges with a team in London it's not even funny. Yes, the potential money has a way of "easing" some of those, but I'm still not seeing this at any point soon.

I think the NFL would need to be in a position where they could base 2 (or ideally 4) teams in Europe, as the logistics for these teams (and their opponents) would be brutal. If you have 2 teams over there, then you can start to ease the number of trips across the pond - if you go over, then you play both teams, when they come over they play 2-3 in a row on the road, etc.

I also think that in order for this to happen, they are likely going to try out another city besides London to compliment it (perhaps Munich or Berlin). Not sure I can see 2 teams in London that then would have to fill the place a total of 20 times.

Agreed. It will be more than a decade before an NFL team could potentially be in London imo. However, I think Shad sees a massive market that he can try to create an additional fan base and London can be the Jaguars "second home". That could be scary long term but Shad is already near 70. I doubt his plan is to move to London. He would like to be the NFL's ambassador to Europe though.

KenFSU

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #191 on: April 30, 2018, 11:49:16 AM »
I like the Jags being here, and a long time season ticket holder(with a 4 game blip last year) but he could move the team tomorrow and while I won't be happy, it will take me about by 5 minutes to get over it. I don't think it would hurt Jax at all. Probably help in the long term.

I disagree.

The team is deeply interwoven into the fabric of our community, spanning generations, and I think it would really do a number on Jacksonville to lose that institution.

The Jags give Jacksonville identity.

Externally with outsiders, sure, but even more importantly, internally as a city.

The Jags are the glue that unites an 800 square mile metro that is, for all intents and purposes, a collection of smaller, very different cities operating under a consolidated government.

You walk around Hemming Park, or the beaches, or the Town Center, or the Orange Park mall, or Mayport, or UNF, and you see Jags gear everywhere, and you hear people talking about our team. And debating the draft. And celebrating wins. And commiserating the losses.

You wear a Jags t-shirt at LaGuardia, or O'Hare, or Hartsfield-Jackson, you're going to be approached by other Jacksonville travelers.

And you go to the games on Sunday afternoon, and you see an entire cross-section of the community, coming together, cheering for their local team, and screaming the name of our county at the top of their lungs.

That's irreplaceable.

I think what makes this current team so special is how closely the team's identity mirrors that of the city - the scrappy underdog, minimized by the national media, with a chip on its shoulder and ready to prove the doubters wrong. Led by a blue-collar, bologna-sandwich-eating coach, and a quarterback that is pure Jax Beach.

Plus, the guys love it here, and want to be here, and I think that's infectious and trickles down to every aspect of our community, from business development, to racial relations, to overall civic pride.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 11:51:40 AM by KenFSU »

Adam White

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #192 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:12 PM »
The Jags are the glue that unites an 800 square mile metro that is, for all intents and purposes, a collection of smaller, very different cities operating under a consolidated government.

« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 12:10:29 PM by Adam White »
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RatTownRyan

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #193 on: April 30, 2018, 01:26:15 PM »
I agree with KenFSU. I am sure there are some on this forum that either, grew up following another football team( Pittsburgh or Miami), are not interested in football, or didnt grow up in Jax. For someone who grew up here and has been a Jag fan my entire life, losing the team would feel like losing part of my identity. The sentiment that someone could get over something like that in five minutes does not register. I love Jax for many different reasons. Having a professional sports team  that puts us on a stage against the big cities is huge even if its symbolic or irrelevant. We will never have the population, economics or institution of Houston, LA, Seattle, or NY but on any given Sunday we can whoop that a$$ on the football field in front of the world.

JBTripper

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Re: Jaguars State of the Franchise 2018
« Reply #194 on: April 30, 2018, 02:28:46 PM »
How many NFL teams would be willing to play one of their "home" games in Khan's stadium? Financially it could make sense, but if the Jags develop a real crowd advantage, then I don't see other owners agreeing to that.

Wembley could be a good thing for Jax and the Jags. However, if the team does not meet financial goals locally, I could see this creeping toward more than one home game in London.

The Jaguars would have a very difficult time selling additional home games in London to the fans in Jacksonville. If fans begin to see this venture as a gradual creep across the Atlantic, they'll stop supporting the team altogether. If that happens, so much for increasing local revenue.

But if Khan owns Wembley, he might have the leverage to lure other NFL teams to give up home games to play the Jaguars in London. From a competitive standpoint, home-field advantage matters a lot less in the NFL than it does in college, particularly during the regular season. A Jaguar-heavy crowd would not be as much of an issue with getting another team to come play in London.

In college football, we've had a huge increase in these "neutral site" games early in the year. They're so lucrative that Florida and Michigan get more money by splitting the revenue from a game in Dallas than they do by keeping all of the money from a game in Gainesville/Ann Arbor. Since Khan doesn't have to rent the facility, the financials of a "neutral site" game between the Chargers and Jaguars might begin to look more attractive for both teams than a game in LA, where they can't even fill an MLS stadium. The Chargers, or many other small-market teams, could do better with half the money from a London game than all of the money from a home game. And obviously the Jags would be happy to take half the money from a London game than none of the money from a traditional road game.

And the fans in Jacksonville don't care a lick how many road games the Jaguars play in London.


If the Jags add a second London game, it's 99% going to be a home game. Can't see the away game scenario happening for the simple reason that it defeats the entire purpose of playing in London, which is to generate more revenue for the Jags. With the way NFL revenue sharing is set up, home teams get 60% of general ticket sales, and 100% of premium ticket sales (clubs, boxes, etc) and concessions. The other 40% goes into a pot that is shared evenly among all teams. If the Jags play an away game in London, that money all goes to the other team. Financially, adding a regular away game in London makes roughly as much sense as adding a regular away game in Lakeland.

That may be true today, but the revenue sharing agreement isn't etched in stone. If an NFL owner should come to own Wembley stadium, that changes the calculus for what's possible over there. I wasn't suggesting that the Jags would benefit much from a true "road" game in London, only that a revenue split more along the lines of a college "neutral site" game might  change the equation.  Achieving this with the NFL schedule is obviously more complicated than Florida and Michigan each giving up home games against Double-Directional State, but it's not impossible to picture somebody on the Jaguars schedule each year voluntarily giving up a true home game in order to make more money from a neutral-site game in London.