Author Topic: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State  (Read 68360 times)

FlaBoy

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #15 on: March 29, 2018, 12:15:29 PM »
I would also venture to say that California has the most income inequality in the country.

I'd say, "venture again". Apparently, California is 7th (one spot ahead of Texas)...and Florida is 5th.

https://www.epi.org/publication/income-inequality-in-the-us/

That makes sense for Florida. For California, it means the bottom is rising in that low income citizens are leaving due to the cost of living and being replaced by wealthier people. Just my interpretation of the data.

BridgeTroll

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2018, 07:06:29 AM »
https://www.vividmaps.com/2017/03/to-which-states-californians-are.html

Quote
To which states Californians are immigrating
 March 6, 2017
California exports its poor to Texas, other states, while wealthier people move in.

About 2.5 million people living close to the official poverty line left California for other states from 2005 through 2015, while 1.7 million
people at that income level moved in from other states – for a net loss of 800,000. During the same period, the state experienced a net gain of about 20,000 residents earning at least five times the poverty rate – or $100,000 for a family of three.

To which states Californians are immigrating



This is a good article from a year ago...

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article136478098.html

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Every year from 2000 through 2015, more people left California than moved in from other states. This migration was not spread evenly across all income groups, a Sacramento Bee review of U.S. Census Bureau data found. The people leaving tend to be relatively poor, and many lack college degrees. Move higher up the income spectrum, and slightly more people are coming than going.

Quote
Losing impoverished residents to other states is better for the state’s economy than losing wealthy residents, some experts said. But they said the migration itself is a symptom of deeper social problems largely related to how expensive California has become.

“Why are people leaving? Economic reasons, the high cost of living, are certainly a part of it,” said Hans Johnson, senior fellow at the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. “For those people (near the poverty line), California is not viable.”

In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2018, 07:22:02 AM »
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/57-percent-homes-sf-one-million/



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In 2012, just under 20% of homes in San Francisco were worth over $1 million. Today, over 57% of homes have hit the mark, meaning that the majority of homes are now selling for over seven figures.

While San Francisco gets the majority of the attention for its housing prices, the situation is actually much wider in scope. San Jose and Oakland have seen the percentage of such houses increase to 46.3% and 19.7% respectively. Meanwhile, in Southern California, the number of $1 million houses have doubled in both San Diego and Los Angeles over the last four years.

MILLION DOLLAR HOUSING MARKETS IN THE U.S.

City                           $1MM homes (2012)   $1MM homes (2016)   Percentage point change
San Francisco, CA   19.6%                         57.4%                   +37.8%
San Jose, CA           17.4%                         46.3%                   +28.9%
Oakland, CA            5.2%                         19.7%                   +14.5%
Orange County, CA   7.1%                         16.1%                    +8.9%
Los Angeles, CA           8.0%                         16.3%                    +8.3%
Honolulu, HI           8.1%                         15.4%                    +7.3%
San Diego, CA           5.4%                         10.7%                    +5.2%
New York, NY           7.0%                         12.0%                    +4.9%
Ventura County, CA   4.3%                           9.0%                    +4.6%
Seattle, WA           2.5%                           7.0%                    +4.5%
Data courtesy of: Trulia

Looking at individual neighborhoods, the numbers get even more intense. In Westwood Park in San Francisco, for example, only 2.9% of homes were worth over a million dollars in 2012. Today, 96.0% of houses there hit the mark, leaving only a few pockets that have some element of affordability.

Just south of the San Francisco airport is the neighborhood of Nineteenth Avenue in San Mateo. There, not a single house can be found for under $1 million. This wasn’t the case in 2012, when only about 10% of houses were in seven digit territory.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2018, 07:27:49 AM by BridgeTroll »
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

Adam White

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #18 on: March 30, 2018, 09:17:26 AM »
http://www.visualcapitalist.com/57-percent-homes-sf-one-million/



Quote
In 2012, just under 20% of homes in San Francisco were worth over $1 million. Today, over 57% of homes have hit the mark, meaning that the majority of homes are now selling for over seven figures.

While San Francisco gets the majority of the attention for its housing prices, the situation is actually much wider in scope. San Jose and Oakland have seen the percentage of such houses increase to 46.3% and 19.7% respectively. Meanwhile, in Southern California, the number of $1 million houses have doubled in both San Diego and Los Angeles over the last four years.

MILLION DOLLAR HOUSING MARKETS IN THE U.S.

City                           $1MM homes (2012)   $1MM homes (2016)   Percentage point change
San Francisco, CA   19.6%                         57.4%                   +37.8%
San Jose, CA           17.4%                         46.3%                   +28.9%
Oakland, CA            5.2%                         19.7%                   +14.5%
Orange County, CA   7.1%                         16.1%                    +8.9%
Los Angeles, CA           8.0%                         16.3%                    +8.3%
Honolulu, HI           8.1%                         15.4%                    +7.3%
San Diego, CA           5.4%                         10.7%                    +5.2%
New York, NY           7.0%                         12.0%                    +4.9%
Ventura County, CA   4.3%                           9.0%                    +4.6%
Seattle, WA           2.5%                           7.0%                    +4.5%
Data courtesy of: Trulia

Looking at individual neighborhoods, the numbers get even more intense. In Westwood Park in San Francisco, for example, only 2.9% of homes were worth over a million dollars in 2012. Today, 96.0% of houses there hit the mark, leaving only a few pockets that have some element of affordability.

Just south of the San Francisco airport is the neighborhood of Nineteenth Avenue in San Mateo. There, not a single house can be found for under $1 million. This wasn’t the case in 2012, when only about 10% of houses were in seven digit territory.

I have it on good authority that haircuts are really expensive there, too.
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FlaBoy

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2018, 11:16:20 AM »
It is a big reason why "workforce housing" makes some sense out there because literally school teachers cannot afford to live in San Francisco. In Jax, workforce housing is most of our neighborhoods.

MusicMan

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2018, 01:07:01 PM »
So lots of people with lots of money are moving there and buying homes?  Not sure what you can prove/disprove from the map.

Or are they trying to sell at this price point and not selling?  Stats revealing what homes are selling for and who is doing the buying (wealthy foreigners?) might be more useful.

Not near as bad as Vancouver BC.

BridgeTroll

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #21 on: March 30, 2018, 01:13:37 PM »
So lots of people with lots of money are moving there and buying homes?  Not sure what you can prove/disprove from the map.

Or are they trying to sell at this price point and not selling?  Stats revealing what homes are selling for and who is doing the buying (wealthy foreigners?) might be more useful.

Not near as bad as Vancouver BC.

Wow... the map is a tool for understanding... perhaps this article from the previous post might prove useful?

http://www.sacbee.com/news/state/california/article136478098.html
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

TimmyB

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #22 on: March 30, 2018, 01:54:46 PM »
California is a place that basically no one relocates to unless (a) they have a great job/job offer, or (b) they have a friend to live with for next to nothing.  There is simply no way a person can afford to move there, not within 50 miles of the coast, anyways. 

My cousin, who has spent her whole life there, just shared this post on FB a couple of weeks ago.  This is in Sunnyvale, not a "destination" by any stretch of the imagination.  An 848 SF house went for $2M, which was $550K over asking!!!  Over $2350 per SF.  Absolute insanity, but the market dictates the price, not liberals nor cons.  If Cali is losing residents "in droves", I don't believe you'd see things like this happening.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/02/sunnyvale-home-shatters-new-record-with-enormous-price-tag/

FlaBoy

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #23 on: March 30, 2018, 02:28:06 PM »
California is a place that basically no one relocates to unless (a) they have a great job/job offer, or (b) they have a friend to live with for next to nothing.  There is simply no way a person can afford to move there, not within 50 miles of the coast, anyways. 

My cousin, who has spent her whole life there, just shared this post on FB a couple of weeks ago.  This is in Sunnyvale, not a "destination" by any stretch of the imagination.  An 848 SF house went for $2M, which was $550K over asking!!!  Over $2350 per SF.  Absolute insanity, but the market dictates the price, not liberals nor cons.  If Cali is losing residents "in droves", I don't believe you'd see things like this happening.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/03/02/sunnyvale-home-shatters-new-record-with-enormous-price-tag/

Agreed. The price of the Valley is now insane. Sunnyvale is in the middle of it. There is so much money and wealth in tech right now that people can spend it in droves.

MusicMan

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #24 on: March 30, 2018, 02:32:42 PM »
I'd like to know more about that house. Can you get a Realtor.com link?  It might be on a huge lot that allows building a multi family or other
more profitable build type.  (Update: I see the link. Thanks!)

Hey New York is ridiculous prices but there is a never ending demand for housing there.   NY and Cali both draw a wealthy international clientele. As does Greater Miami.   Jax not so much.....
« Last Edit: March 30, 2018, 02:36:23 PM by MusicMan »

CityLife

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #25 on: March 30, 2018, 03:33:15 PM »
So lots of people with lots of money are moving there and buying homes?  Not sure what you can prove/disprove from the map.

Or are they trying to sell at this price point and not selling?  Stats revealing what homes are selling for and who is doing the buying (wealthy foreigners?) might be more useful.

Not near as bad as Vancouver BC.

I have an uncle that is a prominent real estate attorney in LA, and he has told me that the market there has been flooded with Asian money in recent years. He says that that a lot of prominent Chinese and Korean corporations/investment groups are sinking substantial money into the California market to diversify their portfolio and also hedge against economic uncertainty there. A Korean company just built the tallest building in California (the 1,100' tall Wilshire Grand), and I believe there are several other huge projects backed by Asian money under way. He also said that the Chinese economy has created a lot of new wealth, and that many Chinese are paranoid about government takings due to China's communist past. Their LA/California homes are more of an investment/safety net than they are a vacation home.

Another factor to consider in California is just how well the top 5% or so are doing out there, not to mention all the old money and vacation homes of the world's elite.  All those Silicon Valley millionares now have multiple homes, as does everyone in the entertainment industry, and general business. My uncle has a house that he stays at near his office in Century City during the week, and a weekend home in Pasadena. It's not unusual for the wealthy in LA to have two city homes and a Malibu/Santa Barbara/Monterrey beach home. Just a completely different world from what people in Jacksonville know.

As has been said, California is an incredible place for the well off, but difficult for even people that are considered upper middle class in Florida.


Tacachale

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #26 on: March 30, 2018, 04:13:07 PM »
One of my best friends is an MD who did his fellowship at Stanford. Despite being a doctor (at Stanford) he was just getting by in the Bay Area. His family had a 1200 square foot, 2-bedroom apartment on the 3rd floor, with no elevator, that cost $2200 a month in Redwood City. The whole family had transit passes, but they also had to have a car; they drove a Subaru with a cracked windshield he inherited from his grandfather. I’ve rarely met a doctor in any other city who lived like that.

He could have stayed at Stanford after his fellowship, but instead they decided to take a job in Reno, with higher pay and a much lower cost of living. It was not rate for his colleagues to do that.
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TimmyB

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #27 on: March 30, 2018, 04:39:55 PM »
I'd like to know more about that house. Can you get a Realtor.com link?  It might be on a huge lot that allows building a multi family or other
more profitable build type.  (Update: I see the link. Thanks!)

Hey New York is ridiculous prices but there is a never ending demand for housing there.   NY and Cali both draw a wealthy international clientele. As does Greater Miami.   Jax not so much.....

You get retired teachers from Michigan, and all the associated cachet!

Lunican

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Gunnar

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Re: The Mass Exodus From The Golden State
« Reply #29 on: April 03, 2018, 04:03:58 AM »
One of my best friends is an MD who did his fellowship at Stanford. Despite being a doctor (at Stanford) he was just getting by in the Bay Area. His family had a 1200 square foot, 2-bedroom apartment on the 3rd floor, with no elevator, that cost $2200 a month in Redwood City. The whole family had transit passes, but they also had to have a car; they drove a Subaru with a cracked windshield he inherited from his grandfather. I’ve rarely met a doctor in any other city who lived like that.

He could have stayed at Stanford after his fellowship, but instead they decided to take a job in Reno, with higher pay and a much lower cost of living. It was not rate for his colleagues to do that.

That's the thing - one of those high paying tech jobs is probably required to have the same living standard a someone making a lot less in another state due to the high cost of living.

This will be a problem if the people preparing the high income earners' food, cleaning their appartments, fixing their cars... can no longer afford to live in the area.

Of course, that is unless you pay them more, which will lead to increased prices and a higher cost of living....
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