Author Topic: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017  (Read 7407 times)

Tacachale

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2017, 06:10:14 PM »
What's going to happen with these glorified plazas when this boom is over?

Depends. The Town Center is definitely strategically located. With its close location to UNF and the business community there, I think it has some staying power. I don't think it will be Regency anytime in the near future.

Southside won't go the way of Regency for a few more decades. But it will happen, it always does.

Not true. I don't think we truly know yet how these shopping areas will evolve. First, it depends on the socioeconomics of the area. The Town Center has more jobs around it than anywhere in the city including even DT I think (although I don't know the numbers exactly). That is a natural advantage that a place like Regency does not have as it was always a bedroom community with most workers commuting into DT when built.

To coredumped's point, JU is in Arlington but not nearly as close to Regency as UNF is to the town center. The student populations are not comparable either. JU is a small private school while UNF has nearly 17,000 students and will only grow from here. That is a strategic advantage that is hard to come by and is a reason people regret not putting UNF downtown. I would love to see more urban shopping options in the core or the Beaches, and maybe that will eventually be the downfall of the Town Center, but not for awhile.

You're taking a pretty short term view of the situation. The Southside office parks age, they'll face the same issues that the Arlington ones did in past decades. There will be new office parks elsewhere competing for workers, just as Southside took business away from Arlington and Baymeadows, and those took it away from Downtown. The same will happen with the residential buildings as they age, and with the Town Center itself as new malls open up in the exurbs. In a few decades, the whole cityscape will change and Southside will face the same problems that hit Arlingon by the 80s and 90s. However, you're right about being close to UNF, that will always be a natural advantage for the Town Center.
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Steve

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2017, 06:23:47 PM »
A university isn't a guarantee of a nice area around it. In fact, many colleges happen to be in bad neighborhoods.

seaspray

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #17 on: March 01, 2017, 08:42:16 PM »
SJTC is there to stay and will only grow, in next ten to 15 years. Just from my observation/prediction having lived in that area from when SJTC sprung up more than 10 years ago. The traffic issues needs to get fixed, and its growth depends on that, with it more outlets in and out. But it probably will not "die" or suffer the same fate as Regency in the near future.

thelakelander

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #18 on: March 01, 2017, 10:47:08 PM »
^Give it 20 years or so. Many thought the same about Regency after its expansion in the early 1980s (it was roughly around the same age as SJTC back then).
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FlaBoy

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2017, 08:53:03 AM »
What's going to happen with these glorified plazas when this boom is over?

Depends. The Town Center is definitely strategically located. With its close location to UNF and the business community there, I think it has some staying power. I don't think it will be Regency anytime in the near future.

Southside won't go the way of Regency for a few more decades. But it will happen, it always does.

Not true. I don't think we truly know yet how these shopping areas will evolve. First, it depends on the socioeconomics of the area. The Town Center has more jobs around it than anywhere in the city including even DT I think (although I don't know the numbers exactly). That is a natural advantage that a place like Regency does not have as it was always a bedroom community with most workers commuting into DT when built.

To coredumped's point, JU is in Arlington but not nearly as close to Regency as UNF is to the town center. The student populations are not comparable either. JU is a small private school while UNF has nearly 17,000 students and will only grow from here. That is a strategic advantage that is hard to come by and is a reason people regret not putting UNF downtown. I would love to see more urban shopping options in the core or the Beaches, and maybe that will eventually be the downfall of the Town Center, but not for awhile.

You're taking a pretty short term view of the situation. The Southside office parks age, they'll face the same issues that the Arlington ones did in past decades. There will be new office parks elsewhere competing for workers, just as Southside took business away from Arlington and Baymeadows, and those took it away from Downtown. The same will happen with the residential buildings as they age, and with the Town Center itself as new malls open up in the exurbs. In a few decades, the whole cityscape will change and Southside will face the same problems that hit Arlingon by the 80s and 90s. However, you're right about being close to UNF, that will always be a natural advantage for the Town Center.

I mean, if Florida Blue or Merrill Lynch/BOA, that would hurt the Town Center and the whole city. There are so many employees in those office parks that are owned by their entities alone. In many ways, the Town Center/Southside Area has become what Westshore is to Tampa. Westshore Plaza has had its ups and downs but has stayed one of the premier shopping areas in Tampa for 50 years due to the job center it is in (that is even with International Plaza opening around 2000). Both shopping areas have remained successful. And sure, Wiregrass opened in New Tampa/Wesley Chapel and Citrus opened up the way, but Westshore and International shopping has remained successful due to its location.

We will see though. Maybe everyone moves shop down to SJC and Durbin Park but I doubt it.

thelakelander

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2017, 09:08:20 AM »
Westshore Plaza and International Plaza both pull from a regional population much larger than Westshore can support by itself.  They are pretty centralized, serving both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.  While Westshore has survived since the the opening of International Plaza, Tampa Bay Center, Clearwater Mall, Pinellas Square Mall and Eastlake Square Mall have all bit the dust since 2000.

St. Johns Town Center will be fine until a newer comparable regional center opens its doors.  If that happens and the regional population isn't large enough to adequately support both centers, one will suffer or have to change its tenant mix/niche and it won't matter if an office park or college campus is next door or not (ex. University Mall being next to USF hasn't stopped its decline as newer centers in the region have opened).
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FlaBoy

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2017, 03:20:45 PM »
Westshore Plaza and International Plaza both pull from a regional population much larger than Westshore can support by itself.  They are pretty centralized, serving both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.  While Westshore has survived since the the opening of International Plaza, Tampa Bay Center, Clearwater Mall, Pinellas Square Mall and Eastlake Square Mall have all bit the dust since 2000.

St. Johns Town Center will be fine until a newer comparable regional center opens its doors.  If that happens and the regional population isn't large enough to adequately support both centers, one will suffer or have to change its tenant mix/niche and it won't matter if an office park or college campus is next door or not (ex. University Mall being next to USF hasn't stopped its decline as newer centers in the region have opened).

Agreed. But do you think a Town Center/Southside has become the Westshore of Jacksonville? Especially with Florida Blue and Merrill Lynch's massive campuses there and its central location between the Urban Core and the Beaches specifically? That combined with UNF is a great base...The problem with University mall in Tampa is the socioeconomics are weak in North Tampa. The one weakness of the Town Center could be the number of apartment buildings in the area that will get old and potentially run down. That may be the shift, especially if the Urban Core were to explode and Durban Park were to have a wealthier base in SJC. A combination of some big time shopping returning to DT/Riverside/San Marco and another newer/nice shopping experience with a close/large base of high socioeconomic shoppers could certainly do it.

Tacachale

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #22 on: March 02, 2017, 03:49:29 PM »
Westshore Plaza and International Plaza both pull from a regional population much larger than Westshore can support by itself.  They are pretty centralized, serving both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.  While Westshore has survived since the the opening of International Plaza, Tampa Bay Center, Clearwater Mall, Pinellas Square Mall and Eastlake Square Mall have all bit the dust since 2000.

St. Johns Town Center will be fine until a newer comparable regional center opens its doors.  If that happens and the regional population isn't large enough to adequately support both centers, one will suffer or have to change its tenant mix/niche and it won't matter if an office park or college campus is next door or not (ex. University Mall being next to USF hasn't stopped its decline as newer centers in the region have opened).

Agreed. But do you think a Town Center/Southside has become the Westshore of Jacksonville? Especially with Florida Blue and Merrill Lynch's massive campuses there and its central location between the Urban Core and the Beaches specifically? That combined with UNF is a great base...The problem with University mall in Tampa is the socioeconomics are weak in North Tampa. The one weakness of the Town Center could be the number of apartment buildings in the area that will get old and potentially run down. That may be the shift, especially if the Urban Core were to explode and Durban Park were to have a wealthier base in SJC. A combination of some big time shopping returning to DT/Riverside/San Marco and another newer/nice shopping experience with a close/large base of high socioeconomic shoppers could certainly do it.

The buildings of the area will get old and rundown (even more so than some older neighborhoods due to chintzy modern construction), the needs of businesses will change, the population will get older. The demographics will change. And importantly, developers will build shiny new stuff elsewhere, and the mall itself will face the fact that people's tastes in shopping centers will continue to change. To compete with newcomers and the inevitabilities of decline, the mall will need to stay up to date, and that's going to be hard with its poor, piecemeal planning.

Southside isn't less vulnerable than any other area, regardless of the businesses located there or UNF. Downtown has thousands of workers, but shopping left there long ago anyway. Arlington is also located between Downtown and the Beaches and was once an employment center (though not to the extent of the newer Southside), and it has declined. But SJTC doesn't have much to worry about right now. It will take a while.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #23 on: March 02, 2017, 04:08:55 PM »
Westshore Plaza and International Plaza both pull from a regional population much larger than Westshore can support by itself.  They are pretty centralized, serving both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.  While Westshore has survived since the the opening of International Plaza, Tampa Bay Center, Clearwater Mall, Pinellas Square Mall and Eastlake Square Mall have all bit the dust since 2000.

St. Johns Town Center will be fine until a newer comparable regional center opens its doors.  If that happens and the regional population isn't large enough to adequately support both centers, one will suffer or have to change its tenant mix/niche and it won't matter if an office park or college campus is next door or not (ex. University Mall being next to USF hasn't stopped its decline as newer centers in the region have opened).

Agreed. But do you think a Town Center/Southside has become the Westshore of Jacksonville? Especially with Florida Blue and Merrill Lynch's massive campuses there and its central location between the Urban Core and the Beaches specifically? That combined with UNF is a great base...

"Westshore" in what way? Westshore is centrally located between two counties that combine for more than 2 million people. The regional malls there are pulling from a regional population base, not the business district they are located in. Where's our Pinellas?

Quote
The problem with University mall in Tampa is the socioeconomics are weak in North Tampa.

University Mall was fine until the openings of Citrus Park (1999) and Wiregrass (2008). The recent opening of Tampa Premium Outlets in Pasco probably doesn't help either.

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FlaBoy

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #24 on: March 02, 2017, 04:24:45 PM »
Westshore Plaza and International Plaza both pull from a regional population much larger than Westshore can support by itself.  They are pretty centralized, serving both Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties.  While Westshore has survived since the the opening of International Plaza, Tampa Bay Center, Clearwater Mall, Pinellas Square Mall and Eastlake Square Mall have all bit the dust since 2000.

St. Johns Town Center will be fine until a newer comparable regional center opens its doors.  If that happens and the regional population isn't large enough to adequately support both centers, one will suffer or have to change its tenant mix/niche and it won't matter if an office park or college campus is next door or not (ex. University Mall being next to USF hasn't stopped its decline as newer centers in the region have opened).

Agreed. But do you think a Town Center/Southside has become the Westshore of Jacksonville? Especially with Florida Blue and Merrill Lynch's massive campuses there and its central location between the Urban Core and the Beaches specifically? That combined with UNF is a great base...The problem with University mall in Tampa is the socioeconomics are weak in North Tampa. The one weakness of the Town Center could be the number of apartment buildings in the area that will get old and potentially run down. That may be the shift, especially if the Urban Core were to explode and Durban Park were to have a wealthier base in SJC. A combination of some big time shopping returning to DT/Riverside/San Marco and another newer/nice shopping experience with a close/large base of high socioeconomic shoppers could certainly do it.

The buildings of the area will get old and rundown (even more so than some older neighborhoods due to chintzy modern construction), the needs of businesses will change, the population will get older. The demographics will change. And importantly, developers will build shiny new stuff elsewhere, and the mall itself will face the fact that people's tastes in shopping centers will continue to change. To compete with newcomers and the inevitabilities of decline, the mall will need to stay up to date, and that's going to be hard with its poor, piecemeal planning.

Southside isn't less vulnerable than any other area, regardless of the businesses located there or UNF. Downtown has thousands of workers, but shopping left there long ago anyway. Arlington is also located between Downtown and the Beaches and was once an employment center (though not to the extent of the newer Southside), and it has declined. But SJTC doesn't have much to worry about right now. It will take a while.

Agreed. In all honesty, online shopping may be the biggest threat in the end to all of this.

I do think there may be more potential down the line, if things did go bad, to redevelop these outdoor malls with more mixed uses. That is in comparison to the huge spaces of indoor malls that have been difficult to do anything with.

Regency, for example, has well over a million square feet of indoor space. That is literally convention center size but it is hard to come up with too many different uses.
« Last Edit: March 02, 2017, 04:47:32 PM by FlaBoy »

Tacachale

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #25 on: March 02, 2017, 05:13:01 PM »
You know, I can remember the exact day I last set foot in Regency. It was March 7, 2012, almost exactly 5 years ago. I remember because it was the day after the Episcopal School shooting; my brother, who went there, was pretty shaken up. My wife and I had just moved to Ponte Vedra from San Marco and we had errands to run, so we dragged him along on to get him out of the house. One of our stops was to the Regency GameStop where I had preordered Mass Effect 3 (which had also come out the day before, as I recall). Oddly, that was by far the most convenient GameStop to San Marco (and still is), and I placed the preorder before we decided to move to Ponte Vedra. The mall was mostly closed and kind of spooky even at that time; I can only imagine what it looks like now.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

remc86007

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #26 on: March 02, 2017, 07:26:59 PM »
Looking at the list of stuff being built at the town center is, to me at least, really underwhelming. I guess it's just not my kind of stuff. The one thing I was kind of excited about, Piada, I heard is no longer planning to build.

RatTownRyan

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #27 on: March 02, 2017, 08:23:57 PM »
There is something going up near SJTC that is about 10 stories tall. I see it as I'm driving down JTB. Does anyone know what it is?

thelakelander

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2017, 08:28:52 PM »
It's a parking garage.
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RatTownRyan

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Re: Southside Construction Update - Winter 2017
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2017, 08:31:07 PM »
^ thanks. Couldn't tell if it was the start of one of the hotels.