Durbin Park: NE Florida's Next Retail Mecca Takes Shape

[lastdaysoffla]

The SJC for Schools argument seems to be a bit of a strange thing to me. The school system can barely keep up with the growth. Any sizable development must include plans for at least an elementary school. At one point or another the system has to lose quality. Shoot, when I went to high school at Bartram I spent the first few semesters in trailers as they built an addition to a school built five years before.

[Tacachale]

The SJC for Schools argument seems to be a bit of a strange thing to me. The school system can barely keep up with the growth. Any sizable development must include plans for at least an elementary school. At one point or another the system has to lose quality. Shoot, when I went to high school at Bartram I spent the first few semesters in trailers as they built an addition to a school built five years before.

Yeah, and to make it worse, they pay for new schools out of impact fees rather than taxes. When the growth slows, there's no way the county will be able to fund all those schools at the current levels. They will either need to raise taxes substantially, or lose quality.

[FlaBoy]

Perception is everything. It also has very little to do with quality of education received in comparison to socio-economic levels of students and the outputs that come from that. Parents is higher socio-economic areas will also make sure the necessary resources are there for schools to function and for the students to succeed.

[remc86007]

The perception is largely incorrect. I went to Bartram and I'd describe my education as passable. Friends of mine that went to Creekside had a similar or worse experience. Drugs run rampant through the suburbs despite what the realtors tell you. Suffice it to say that I was somewhat behind the curve when I got to College despite taking numerous AP courses in high school.

The word "overrated" comes to mind.

[spuwho]

The perception is largely incorrect. I went to Bartram and I'd describe my education as passable. Friends of mine that went to Creekside had a similar or worse experience. Drugs run rampant through the suburbs despite what the realtors tell you. Suffice it to say that I was somewhat behind the curve when I got to College despite taking numerous AP courses in high school.

The word "overrated" comes to mind.

After I moved to NE Florida, the common refrain from all the parents I talked to was that the "AP" classes had little value in the college setting. Even in some of the private settings.

And for those who did jump between the AP and standard offerings found the difference to be in the amount of homework one was asked to complete.

Some parents even thought "AP" was an education racket to have parents believe their kids were getting a great value in public education. Then when they took entrance exams or proficiency tests to get placed at their respective colleges, they found themselves lumped into the same group as everyone else.  Everyone's experience varies by the ability of ones child, but as a whole AP does not get you any advanced placement by default. The kid has to be able to translate what they supposedly learned in AP into real terms on a proficiency exam.

I have seen some kids ace high school chem, just to struggle in 1st year chem in college.  On the flip side, I have seen non-AP students exam out of first year college chem because their high school program was so much better, they were completely prepared.

[FlaBoy]

With the retail market crashing and burning right now, can our local market support another huge shopping center?

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/

[remc86007]

^ I like the part about moving into a post-materialism America. I think that is evidence of our society achieving a new level of prosperity.

[JaxJersey-licious]

With the retail market crashing and burning right now, can our local market support another huge shopping center?

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/

Yes because that article is describing more the over-abundance of existing retail whereas the area serving Durbin Park is a virtual durable goods retail dessert. And since it's not even broken ground yet Durbin Park would have no problem adjusting its size and tenant mix unlike a fixed-size anchor tenant driven shopping mall like the Avenues.

Plus it's not all doom/gloom for all retailers: Home improvement stores and low-cost retailers aren't suffering the news-grabbing bankruptcy headlines that draw all the attention. Also you're seeing more gyms, eateries, and niche grocery stores capitalizing on the new availability of retail space. While the revamping and repurposing may eat into shopping center owners pockets, it certainly isn't a death knell for most of them. 

[JaxJersey-licious]

^ I like the part about moving into a post-materialism America. I think that is evidence of our society achieving a new level of prosperity.

Agreed. What I think was instrumental in putting materialism into a new light for a post-recession generation was all those shows about hoarders and how we all can be easily swept away in the need for more and more stuff to the point that the reasons and benefits for it are forgotten or don't even matter.

[spuwho]

With the retail market crashing and burning right now, can our local market support another huge shopping center?

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/

I was thinking the same thing.

Bloomberg had an article about the overbuilt nature of retail.

[thelakelander]

I wouldn't be surprised if Durbin Park's Phase 2 lifestyle center component fails to materialize as currently illustrated in the master plan.  Phase 1 should be fine since it's a Walmart, Home Depot and a few other big box spots.

[jaxjags]

I wouldn't be surprised if Durbin Park's Phase 2 lifestyle center component fails to materialize as currently illustrated in the master plan.  Phase 1 should be fine since it's a Walmart, Home Depot and a few other big box spots.

I do think the bass pro shop section of phase 2 will occur. I could also see phase 2 scaled down to an upscale restaurant village type setting.

[thelakelander]

Yeah Bass pro is more of an isolated outparcel.  The SJTC-like portion of phase 2 will need anchors like Dillards, Macy's and Belk.  There's not much expansion taking place in the traditional department store world today.



It's only a matter of time before Sears goes completely under, which means the Avenues and Orange Park Mall will both have some extra space on their hands.

[Steve]

With the retail market crashing and burning right now, can our local market support another huge shopping center?

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/04/retail-meltdown-of-2017/522384/

TL;DR warning:

Not sure I buy the whole thing they wrote. Here are their three reasons:

1. People are simply buying more stuff online than they used to.

Completely agree, and undisputed.

2. America built way too many malls.

I do agree with this to a point, but mostly this statement is restating #1. People still are buying things; they just aren't buying them from malls. I do think that the move back to cities as compared to the 1970's and 1980's is contributing. Malls are suburban (mostly) and urban dwellers do tend to shop local. Local stores aren't usually the ones you find in malls, save for some instances in New York/LA.

3. Americans are shifting their spending from materialism to meals out with friends.

Don't agree with this argument. I'm not arguing the data they present, but I do argue the conclusions they draw from it. Obviously Food and Drink spending is up - that's clear. However, I think that it's a stretch to say people aren't spending money on non-food and drink. What I think may be in play is average retail prices - I don't believe they've risen across the board as quickly as total spend. Through the internet, I believe the shopper is more savvy than in any time in history. It's much easier today when you can comparison shop. Best Buy has recovered to a degree, but they were Amazon's showroom for a while - people could check prices online from their phone while shopping in a store - never in history has something like that happened.

I think retail is changed forever, but how? Not sure yet. This statement that they make - "One of the mistakes people make when thinking about the future is to think that they are watching the final act of the play." - couldn't be more true. Look at online startups like Warby Parker and Rent The Runway spinning up stores in major cities, and historic brick and mortar chains trying to monetize the whole omnichannel thing. It's as if they both believe the grass is greener on the other side. I think the conclusion is that is you want really green grass, you need a presence on both sides of the hill.

[Steve]

With all of that said, I wouldn't invest in Phase 2 of this (Save for maybe Bass Pro) if I had money to burn.