Durbin Park: NE Florida's Next Retail Mecca Takes Shape

[spuwho]

"What people want" at the moment is at times a contradiction.

They want low density, lots of parks, wide expansive roads, great schools.....

They want big retail, easy access, no traffic, lots of choices......

With low property taxes, no industry, no loud trucks or trains passing by.....

People moved to North St Johns because they liked the low density, but the belly ache for lack of retail is silly because retail won't come until there is an adequate amount of density or volume.

A few things this development will impact.

- Nocatee Town Center (two retail hubs in close proximity to each other)
- Help promote a toll bridge replacement for the Shands (people won't have to cross the bridge for retail anymore)
- Drain off around 5-10% of St Johns Town Center over the next few years until a major anchor (like a Bass Pro) appears
- Over the next 30 years the 2 sites will be competing for the same regional retail anchors

One thing that is suppressed on the map is that the county plans to connect Durbin Parkway (Peyton Drive) east of 9B/I-795, cross over I-95 and US1 to connect with Nocatee Parkway.

And don't forget that the Davis Family is planning yet more retail at the intersection of 9B and E-Town Parkway.

My biggest concern is that the major job growth in greater Jacksonville is actually on the other side of the river (Amazon/GE). This will draw yet more demand for commuter traffic over a Shands replacement to reach jobs at Cecil Commerce.

I don't know who is doing the economics on these developments, but I still don't see where the people are coming from.  While Jacksonville job growth and unemployment has been steady, the boom in housing inventory seems to be outstripping our ability to provide jobs to pay for them. To my eyes, that is the sign of a bubble in the works.  Just my 4 cents.

[David]

Dude, the Sim City suburban expansion pack looks great! Especially with the Game Of Thrones-ish soundtrack.

[lastdaysoffla]

"What people want" at the moment is at times a contradiction.

I can't disagree with any of that. What road is Peyton Parkway? Is that the 9B/Racetrack connector? I can't keep up these days.

I'll admit I approach this with emotion and not logic. I hate to see my hometown be developed at such a feverish pace. I fear for the day all of St. Johns County looks like The Villages.

[remc86007]

I don't know who is doing the economics on these developments, but I still don't see where the people are coming from.  While Jacksonville job growth and unemployment has been steady, the boom in housing inventory seems to be outstripping our ability to provide jobs to pay for them. To my eyes, that is the sign of a bubble in the works.  Just my 4 cents.

I know what you mean (it seems like way too many homes are being built), but most of these people are moving into mortgaged homes, which require demonstrable income prior to closing (jobs already lined up). I don't think this scenario can create a bubble; the home prices will just fall until demand meets supply again.

I agree with you about the location of the housing boom and the job growth. I wish Gate (and others) would focus more on the north side of town. There looks like there is plenty of land around the top portion of the 295.

[jaxjags]

The north side of town around 295 is Duval County. The draw is young couples to SJC due to the school system. The large expansion in SJC is totally about schools in my opinion.

[RattlerGator]

I don't think that's totally it at all. That is a good bit, for sure, but isn't that area of Southeastern Duval / Northern St. Johns the combination of affordable Florida + respectable Florida with great access to the beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville.

And, oh by the way, an easy day trip to the vacation capital of the world.

That's a heck of a lot more of a draw that many presume.

[lastdaysoffla]

I don't know so much about the supply and demand economics of these developments. I do know that Rivertown sat empty for nearly ten years, save approximately a dozen houses, and has become the development du jour all of sudden. The demand must be there again. I keep seeing puff pieces about Rivertown and being slightly sick to my stomach. Though as long as they aren't allowed to build more roundabouts on SR13 or their marina in a protected cove, I guess I might be able to live with it.

There is a new shopping center going right next to another shopping center that has never been at full occupancy in the ten years since it was built on 13 just south of McDonald's in Fruit Cove. Explain the supply and demand on that one.

[jaxjags]

I don't think that's totally it at all. That is a good bit, for sure, but isn't that area of Southeastern Duval / Northern St. Johns the combination of affordable Florida + respectable Florida with great access to the beach, St. Augustine and Jacksonville.

And, oh by the way, an easy day trip to the vacation capital of the world.

That's a heck of a lot more of a draw that many presume.

Perhaps, but I happen to live in North County only about 4-5 miles north of 295, and we have good and quick access to some of the best state ocean parks in FL ( Big and Little Talbot Island), Resorts at Amelia Island and Fernandina Beach. Easy access to SJTC, Downtown and the Airport. But the area is not booming as SJC. For young families schools can be an over riding factor.

[fsquid]

I haven't met one family that lives in St John's that doesn't say it was the schools.

[RattlerGator]

Of course the families are going to say that -- all the families said the same thing in the great rush to Orange Park in the 1970s, too. But there are snowbirds and retirees in the bunches moving in there as well.

Three things that immediately come to mind about North County, jaxjags:

(1) it's the Northside -- you've been here, you know how irrationally freaked out people get by names and stigmas [not to mention you're closer to the Georgia line -- don't get me started on how irrationally prejudicial Floridians can be about places closer to the state line but . . . think or conjure up blacker & more Southern and there's an explanation, albeit overly broad];

(2) conversely, northern St. Johns County has the magic of the Southside working for it, plus Ponte Vedra and St. Augustine [and the "stigma" is reversed . . . whiter, less Southern];

(3) think about it, the bend in the river, I think, acts as a huge barrier and all of the Lowcountry-like terrain north of the bend adds to that barrier. This is probably the most objective take on why the development is lagging on the northeastern end of the area.

But it is coming, my friend, you can bet your bottom dollar on that.

[Tacachale]

The main attraction of St. Johns County is the school system, full stop. After that, the attraction is that it checks off a lot of boxes pretty well that people who prefer living in bedroom suburbs like, and you have access to Jacksonville without living in Jacksonville (and thereby contributing taxes toward the assets you benefit from). It has cachet as the go-to spot for suburbanite families, but this is of course subjective.

Many other points are just confirmation bias for people who are already attracted based on those things. It's got low taxes (well, sort of, but you're paying a lot on impact fees); it's convenient to Jacksonville and it's employment centers, shopping, and things that can't be found in generic bedroom suburbs (it's much farther than comparable areas like Mandarin and Southside, let alone closer neighborhoods); it's "safe" (the crime rate is no different than that in similar areas across the metro area and country, and it's less safe if you're trying to use the roads, especially for walking or biking) it's close to the beach (most of the county is not, and even Ponte Vedra has among the worst beach access in Florida); you get a lot of land for your money (you don't, looking at comparable areas); it's close to St. Augustine (most of the developments are literally as far as you can get from St. Augustine and still be in the same county); it's good for investment (maybe in the short term, definitely not in the long term).

[jaxjags]

Of course the families are going to say that -- all the families said the same thing in the great rush to Orange Park in the 1970s, too. But there are snowbirds and retirees in the bunches moving in there as well.

Three things that immediately come to mind about North County, jaxjags:

(1) it's the Northside -- you've been here, you know how irrationally freaked out people get by names and stigmas [not to mention you're closer to the Georgia line -- don't get me started on how irrationally prejudicial Floridians can be about places closer to the state line but . . . think or conjure up blacker & more Southern and there's an explanation, albeit overly broad];

(2) conversely, northern St. Johns County has the magic of the Southside working for it, plus Ponte Vedra and St. Augustine [and the "stigma" is reversed . . . whiter, less Southern];

(3) think about it, the bend in the river, I think, acts as a huge barrier and all of the Lowcountry-like terrain north of the bend adds to that barrier. This is probably the most objective take on why the development is lagging on the northeastern end of the area.

But it is coming, my friend, you can bet your bottom dollar on that.

As Tacachale says "it is the school system, full stop". My neighbors are a perfect example. Older couple with their children living beside them, UNTIL their children were school age and they moved to SJC for "better schools".

As to your other points, having lived in "North County" north of 295 for 11 years I would say:

1. Yes their is a north side stigma, but it is not much different than JAX as a whole. My favorite FL joke - What is the second biggest city in GA - Jacksonville. SJC does get labeled more as FL.

2. The demographics of North County are actually not the perception - Crime is low, racial balance is not as perceived, etc.

3. There is some truth to the "big bend on the river". Until the Dames Point Bridge and River City Marketplace, North County was predominately North Side people who were born and grew up there.

You are correct as Jacksonville grows it will be growing north.

BUT, SJC is about schools.

[Tacachale]

Of course the families are going to say that -- all the families said the same thing in the great rush to Orange Park in the 1970s, too. But there are snowbirds and retirees in the bunches moving in there as well.

Three things that immediately come to mind about North County, jaxjags:

(1) it's the Northside -- you've been here, you know how irrationally freaked out people get by names and stigmas [not to mention you're closer to the Georgia line -- don't get me started on how irrationally prejudicial Floridians can be about places closer to the state line but . . . think or conjure up blacker & more Southern and there's an explanation, albeit overly broad];

(2) conversely, northern St. Johns County has the magic of the Southside working for it, plus Ponte Vedra and St. Augustine [and the "stigma" is reversed . . . whiter, less Southern];

(3) think about it, the bend in the river, I think, acts as a huge barrier and all of the Lowcountry-like terrain north of the bend adds to that barrier. This is probably the most objective take on why the development is lagging on the northeastern end of the area.

But it is coming, my friend, you can bet your bottom dollar on that.

As Tacachale says "it is the school system, full stop". My neighbors are a perfect example. Older couple with their children living beside them, UNTIL their children were school age and they moved to SJC for "better schools".

As to your other points, having lived in "North County" north of 295 for 11 years I would say:

1. Yes their is a north side stigma, but it is not much different than JAX as a whole. My favorite FL joke - What is the second biggest city in GA - Jacksonville. SJC does get labeled more as FL.

2. The demographics of North County are actually not the perception - Crime is low, racial balance is not as perceived, etc.

3. There is some truth to the "big bend on the river". Until the Dames Point Bridge and River City Marketplace, North County was predominately North Side people who were born and grew up there.

You are correct as Jacksonville grows it will be growing north.

BUT, SJC is about schools.

It is amazing how perception can change on places. Orange Park had "Westside" stigma until it became popular with white suburbanites and it came to be seen as safe and up-and-coming. Now that it's aged, some of that stigma is coming back. North St. Johns will face the same problem as it ages and the target demographic moves on to greener (whiter) pastures. Riverside went from being a pleasant inner suburb, to a declining urban neighborhood, to a bohemian mecca, and now increasingly back to a pleasant inner ring suburb.

The suburban Northside is already starting to shake off the "Northside" stigma as it's becoming a major growth area. As new schools are built, they will be similar to those in demographically similar areas like the Southside, and that cachet will grow even more. I can definitely see Nassau County becoming the next St. Johns in the future (and St. Johns becoming like Orange Park).

[remc86007]

I can definitely see Nassau County becoming the next St. Johns in the future (and St. Johns becoming like Orange Park).

I think this has already begun. As someone who grew up in NW St. Johns it's strange to go to the few restaurants and stores in Fruit Cove and see them filled with old people. I think JCP specifically is going to slowly turn into a retirement community. The young families filling the homes of the older couples that move out will eventually not keep up with the sheer number of aging households. It seems in the short run, the development has simply moved east. Hopefully it will move north next.

Although I'd prefer the new massive neighborhood developments to be built in Duval(or not at all), but at least people commuting from Nassau will balance out the traffic a bit. Has the huge Rayonier backed development begun?

[FlaBoy]

Of course the families are going to say that -- all the families said the same thing in the great rush to Orange Park in the 1970s, too. But there are snowbirds and retirees in the bunches moving in there as well.

Three things that immediately come to mind about North County, jaxjags:

(1) it's the Northside -- you've been here, you know how irrationally freaked out people get by names and stigmas [not to mention you're closer to the Georgia line -- don't get me started on how irrationally prejudicial Floridians can be about places closer to the state line but . . . think or conjure up blacker & more Southern and there's an explanation, albeit overly broad];

(2) conversely, northern St. Johns County has the magic of the Southside working for it, plus Ponte Vedra and St. Augustine [and the "stigma" is reversed . . . whiter, less Southern];

(3) think about it, the bend in the river, I think, acts as a huge barrier and all of the Lowcountry-like terrain north of the bend adds to that barrier. This is probably the most objective take on why the development is lagging on the northeastern end of the area.

But it is coming, my friend, you can bet your bottom dollar on that.

As Tacachale says "it is the school system, full stop". My neighbors are a perfect example. Older couple with their children living beside them, UNTIL their children were school age and they moved to SJC for "better schools".

As to your other points, having lived in "North County" north of 295 for 11 years I would say:

1. Yes their is a north side stigma, but it is not much different than JAX as a whole. My favorite FL joke - What is the second biggest city in GA - Jacksonville. SJC does get labeled more as FL.

2. The demographics of North County are actually not the perception - Crime is low, racial balance is not as perceived, etc.

3. There is some truth to the "big bend on the river". Until the Dames Point Bridge and River City Marketplace, North County was predominately North Side people who were born and grew up there.

You are correct as Jacksonville grows it will be growing north.

BUT, SJC is about schools.

It is amazing how perception can change on places. Orange Park had "Westside" stigma until it became popular with white suburbanites and it came to be seen as safe and up-and-coming. Now that it's aged, some of that stigma is coming back. North St. Johns will face the same problem as it ages and the target demographic moves on to greener (whiter) pastures. Riverside went from being a pleasant inner suburb, to a declining urban neighborhood, to a bohemian mecca, and now increasingly back to a pleasant inner ring suburb.

The suburban Northside is already starting to shake off the "Northside" stigma as it's becoming a major growth area. As new schools are built, they will be similar to those in demographically similar areas like the Southside, and that cachet will grow even more. I can definitely see Nassau County becoming the next St. Johns in the future (and St. Johns becoming like Orange Park).

I think Yulee is already planning a massive development off 95 which has easy access to Fernandina and down to Jax. Nassau will explode at some point with easy access to the airport and the desirability of Amelia/Fernandina along with potential ocean access throughout the area. I think North of the Airport will continue to grow in Duval, but the school situation remains a dicey situation for many.