True, Nocatee will certainly have it's retail victories but will ultimately lose the war to Durbin Park. I'm just shocked at how northern St Johns county is devoid of bigger retailers even off I-95. From Ponte Vedra to the river there are easily over 100,000 residents with lots of disposable income.
When I worked in Ponte Vedra, our office was within walking distance of the Target in Jax Beach. We'd walk to Boston Market, Sierra Grill, FedEx and whatever else was in front of Target ten years ago. In general, Ponte Vedra is a decent hike from most of the new development in Northern St. Johns. So it's served by the big box retail along A1A (ex. Target, Home Depot, etc.).
CR 210 pretty much parallels the county line. Depending where each subdivision is, they're currently served by retail on SR 13/San Jose, in Bartram Park and SR A1A. As the population grows, the Walmart of the big box world will follow. They'll probably hit Durbin Park first though.
An aside...if Durbin Park becomes a successful location for offices as they propose would that have any effect on downtown jobs and development?
Durbin Park will probably have more of an impact on aging Southside office parks than downtown, IMO. For example, Advanced Disposal left Baymeadows for Nocatee a few years back. Downtown is a different built environment that certain companies will be attracted to and others won't.