Author Topic: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings  (Read 64213 times)

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2016, 08:50:59 AM »
This what has plagued this site for the last 10 years. "Wait and see."

By 2019 Trump could be Prez and we could be sunk into a global recession, that is a very serious possibility. The place could sit half finished like Berkman II for another 10 years.  I mean, if your going to do it, get the damn thing going......................

You either believe in the long term viability of the project or you don't.

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2016, 08:55:57 AM »
I believe just a month or two ago is the first time plans for construction were ever filed with the city. So what took place 10 years ago doesn't apply to project's current feasibility.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2016, 09:10:50 AM »
Food and shelter are necessities. This projects features both. In a prime location. Had they built it 10 years ago it would be making lots of money and would have been a catalyst for growth in the immediate area. If you look there now there are several interesting vacant buildings available and the area has pretty much been put "on hold" while this specific development has waited for the "right timing."
Me, I just don't get it.


thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2016, 09:17:43 AM »
^If it were just a grocery store, it would have been built 10 years ago. The addition of multiple floors of condos (initially) and a real estate market crash killed the original project's chances of happening.  An improved economy and a new market for multifamily rentals (it's now apartments instead of condos), has resulted in this once dead project coming back alive.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

Captain Zissou

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2016, 09:18:12 AM »
while this specific development has waited for the "right timing."
You either believe in the long term viability of the project or you don't.

You are aware that the developers aren't just sitting on $300M waiting for a sunny day?  They have to get financing, they have to find other developers for other portions of the project who can get financing, the market could change as they are developing the design and getting permits (what happened in 06-07), banks can pull out.....  At this scale, unless someone is a billionaire looking to burn money on a passion project, you need about two dozen companies and thousands of individuals to "believe in the long term viability of the project".

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2016, 09:24:53 AM »
I am aware.

It puts the existence of the St Johns Town Center into perspective as a modern day miracle, doesn't it?  I mean that has all been done in the last 10 years and was put in the middle of a pine forest, and is easily 50 times bigger than the San Marco Publix project.


P.S.  What was sitting on the corner of Hendricks and Atlantic BEFORE these developers got the parcel?
« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 09:27:07 AM by MusicMan »

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2016, 09:44:51 AM »
I am aware.

It puts the existence of the St Johns Town Center into perspective as a modern day miracle, doesn't it?  I mean that has all been done in the last 10 years and was put in the middle of a pine forest, and is easily 50 times bigger than the San Marco Publix project.

Apples and oranges. SJTC is a regional mall owned by a single entity that took decades of things to fall into place and the market to grow before the first shovel showed up on the site.

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P.S.  What was sitting on the corner of Hendricks and Atlantic BEFORE these developers got the parcel?
^A bank, surface parking lot and a few retail buildings lining Atlantic.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2016, 10:25:06 AM »
I am aware.

It puts the existence of the St Johns Town Center into perspective as a modern day miracle, doesn't it?  I mean that has all been done in the last 10 years and was put in the middle of a pine forest, and is easily 50 times bigger than the San Marco Publix project.


P.S.  What was sitting on the corner of Hendricks and Atlantic BEFORE these developers got the parcel?

SJTC is a modern day miracle when you realize what kind of sales per square foot the retail center generates... which puts it up there with the highest performing regional retail centers in Atlanta and Orlando (something most in the CRE industry wouldn't have believed possible).

The deal that made the SJTC dated back to at least 1997 (the land was looked at for various other projects years before that). The land acquisition was completed in 2000 and the first phase of the mall was finished in 2005 (with two more phases opening in 2007 and 2014- the wide gap between phase 2 and 3 included the r/e crash, even when SJTC retailers were performing beyond expectations during the recession). The timing simply couldn't have been better for SJTC (and was aided by the beltway completion which took well over 20 years to materialize).Since the SJTC opened in 2005, it wasn't until last year that another mall was built in Florida (University Town Center in Sarasota). Even with perfect timing, it wasn't like SJTC came to market miraculously faster than other regional malls built between 1985-2005.

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Had they built it 10 years ago it would be making lots of money

It never would have been built 10 years ago because the residential portion was being handled by St Joe- who completely shifted strategies during the r/e crash. The timing simply didn't work. If some other fly-by-night developer handled the residential portion... the building would have been thrown up with more than likely shoddy construction and would have been foreclosed on (like most condo buildings built b/w 2005-2007 in and around the urban core)... with condo buyers losing massive amounts of money and be stuck with units they couldn't sell because the building's foreclosure rate would have precluded most people from obtaining a mortgage on the property... all the while having to burden the extra costs of growing assessments to fix poor work.

Yeah, wouldn't have that been great?

« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 10:29:18 AM by fieldafm »

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2016, 11:29:39 AM »
The land aquisition was completed in 2000 and the first phase opened in 2005. That's getting it done. Nice!

San Marco Publix parcel was purchased in 2005-06 I believe (maybe earlier) and no ground breaking yet. 

The plans were announced in the early 2000's according to multiple sources.  Well before the RE crash.

The only condo's I am aware of that suffered widespread foreclosures where 1661 Riverside. That unfortunate event created a terrific

buying opportunity for some people.   Almost everything built in Jacksonville (Berkman, Peninsula, 1661 Riverside and several I am not

aware of) had or are enduring lawsuits over shoddy workmanship. That is not unique to a RE crash. Just cheap assholes trying to make

more $$ than they were entitled to.

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #24 on: September 22, 2016, 11:48:25 AM »
^Across the country and locally, several projects died a decade ago:

http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2008-oct-results-of-the-boom-dead-projects

There's nothing unique about East San Marco that would have protected it from the crash. Foreclosures hit the condo market just as hard as they hit the single family home market during the crash. I had a Southside condo at a development, where most of the units were foreclosed, leading to big jump in HOA fees to make up for the money not coming in. It wasn't just a 1661 Riverside thing.

With that said, the current project being proposed is not by the same group that originally proposed East San Marco a decade ago. So the events of years ago really have nothing to do with the project working to get the necessary approvals to move forward now.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #25 on: September 22, 2016, 12:22:19 PM »
"If you build it, they will come."

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #26 on: September 22, 2016, 12:26:26 PM »
Rouse may disagree after their experiences with the Jax Landing, Norfolk's Waterside and Toledo's Portside Festival Marketplaces  ;)
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #27 on: September 22, 2016, 12:50:10 PM »
The land aquisition was completed in 2000 and the first phase opened in 2005. That's getting it done. Nice!


Clearly, you've put together a lot of deals to build regional shopping malls and mixed use projects that are new to market. Generally, you don't buy the land without having done extensive due diligence, including obtaining the necessary tenant LOI's to line up a basic financing structure and rezoning the property before the land purchase. You'd never just buy land to build a mall speculatively without having most of your anchors already lined up (Dillards wasn't originally going to be one of their anchors, btw).

Notwithstanding how long it took to build the outer beltway that made the property viable for hosting a large regional shopping center in the first place (over a 20 year process), it took about 10 years to complete the first phase and almost 20 years to complete the entire project... not 5 years. The acquisition was also aided because the Skinner family owned the land. Having to assemble such a large tract of undeveloped land from multiple parties would have made the process much longer and much more expensive.

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The only condo's I am aware of that suffered widespread foreclosures where 1661 Riverside.

I couldn't even rattle off in a timely fashion how many buildings locally that came online during the middle of the decade suffered from > 30% of the project in foreclosure since the crash.

If East San Marco looked like Berkman II or The Palazzo, I don't see how that would have been good for the neighborhood.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 01:07:53 PM by fieldafm »

fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2016, 01:10:28 PM »
Gosh musicman. I guess ya burnt, huh?

If you knew anything about mixed development, you would know that no one gets them done within ten years of their advertised opening dates.  Which is why they advertise them on signs and through press releases. ;)

Speaking of people that make asinine claims...

Captain Zissou

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2016, 01:28:28 PM »
I bet the Skinners sold the land for SJTC Phase 1 quite cheaply, knowing that they could charge small fortunes down the road for out-parcels, companion projects, etc...  Without the extremely cheap land, I don't know that the SJTC would have taken off.