T-U building for sale

[acme54321]

Whole Foods to One Riverside:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/whole-foods-market-to-anchor-one-riverside-in-brooklyn

Knee jerk reaction:

This is going to be transformational for Brooklyn, and possibly LaVilla.

Build the damn Skyway station.

Transformational?  Theres already a fresh market across the street.

[vicupstate]

Whole Foods is quite a catch for Brooklyn/Riverside. Definitely should help make the DT area more attractive for residents. It might take a lot of wind out of the sails for the plans for one at the old Independent Life building though.  I was always skeptical of that anyway.

[jaxlongtimer]

I just read where Publix is going into E-Town.  That is a relatively isolated development so Publix is likely relying almost exclusively on E-Town residents.  Build-out there is reported at 2,500 units.  At 2.5 residents a unit, it would appear a Publix could thus be supported by about population of about 6,250.

With a Publix, Fresh Market and now a Whole Foods in close proximity to each other and based on the above calculation, it would appear the area would need about 18,750 persons to live around these stores.

Keep in mind there is another Publix at the south end of Riverside-Avondale at Roosevelt and San Juan to siphon off a part of those residents.

So, are, or will, there be that many residents in the area to support these stores?  Anyone have statistics on this?

[thelakelander]

Early in my career, I did a lot of site selection and conceptual shopping center planning for Publix anchored projects. Now things may have changed but back then, the magic number (without jumping into demographics) was around 20,000 residents.

According to marketing material for the shopping center across the street, there are 80,000 people living within a 3 mile radius and the daytime population in the same area is 192,000. These places aren't coming in to just cater to downtown and Brooklyn residents. Riverside Avenue/Broad/Jefferson, etc. is a centralized spine through the urban core with easy access to I-95 and I-10. Any entity locating here is doing so to serve the entire urban core. If the DIA were opportunistic, we'd be designating thoroughfares like this as retail streets and making sure the design of infill would be to the highest pedestrian scale standards.

You have a similar scenario playing out of SR 9B. Don't think for one minute that the Publix going in there is only doing so to serve the E-Town community. That store will have access and direct visibility to 56,500 cars and trucks at day. They'll take a Bartram Park-to-Town Center commuter's money just as fast as someone living three blocks away.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ The reason I figured the E-town Publix would cater to mostly those residents is that there are so many other Publix-es and competitive stores in adjacent areas such as on Baymeadows.  Also, all those 9B travelers likely have a Publix at either their ultimate destinations or origin (e.g. Town Center, Nocatee or Durbin)so no need to make a pit stop at E-town.

[Ken_FSU]

Whole Foods to One Riverside:

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/whole-foods-market-to-anchor-one-riverside-in-brooklyn

Knee jerk reaction:

This is going to be transformational for Brooklyn, and possibly LaVilla.

Build the damn Skyway station.

Transformational?  Theres already a fresh market across the street.

Totally different leagues in terms of being a destination anchor that attracts residents in the demographic that we're looking for to fill some of these proposed new residential developments in the urban core (One Riverside, LaVilla Townhomes, Landing residential, etc.).

You look at the effect Whole Foods has had on Midtown Atlanta, or downtown Nashville, or downtown Indy, or Midtown Tampa, or even Columbus Circle in NYC, and I don't think transformational is an exaggeration at all.

Whole Foods setting up shop in Brooklyn sends a strong signal to outside developers that the area is on the rise.

If the DIA were opportunistic, we'd be designating thoroughfares like this as retail streets and making sure the design of infill would be to the highest pedestrian scale standards.

How much faith do you have that the DIA is thinking about the area in this way? Between this project, McCoy's Creek/Emerald Trail, the Hub, the Trevato properties, FIS's retail frontage, Unity Plaza, the proposed Food Hall, etc, there's so much potential there.

Also, based on your past experience, how do you think this project effects the viability/likelihood of a grocer (like Publix/Greenwise) actually opening up shop in the CBD over the next decade?

[thelakelander]

^ The reason I figured the E-town Publix would cater to mostly those residents is that there are so many other Publix-es and competitive stores in adjacent areas such as on Baymeadows.  Also, all those 9B travelers likely have a Publix at either their ultimate destinations or origin (e.g. Town Center, Nocatee or Durbin)so no need to make a pit stop at E-town.

There's no Publix on US 1 but several residential developments being built between Old St. Augustine Road and CR 210 for example. Reaching an existing Publix from this particular fast growing area would require the driver to extend their commute into already congested areas. Getting to places like the Nocatee or Bartram Park Publixs would add several miles to those trips. However, reaching anything from US 1 to E-Town would only require a quick limited access hop onto (or off -- if already using it) SR 9B. Thus, it's not unrealistic to see that commercial development at the SR 9B /E-Town interchange can easily serve a larger population than what is proposed in E-Town itself.

[thelakelander]

If the DIA were opportunistic, we'd be designating thoroughfares like this as retail streets and making sure the design of infill would be to the highest pedestrian scale standards.

How much faith do you have that the DIA is thinking about the area in this way? Between this project, McCoy's Creek/Emerald Trail, the Hub, the Trevato properties, FIS's retail frontage, Unity Plaza, the proposed Food Hall, etc, there's so much potential there.

I don't have much faith as Riverside Avenue has been made to look as suburban as Town Center Parkway in recent years and there's been very little focus on the potential of Broad and Jefferson or State and Union, as extensions of regional corridors that could serve both downtown residents and commuters using them.

Also, based on your past experience, how do you think this project effects the viability/likelihood of a grocer (like Publix/Greenwise) actually opening up shop in the CBD over the next decade?

This is about as close to the CBD as you can get without actually being in the CBD. I don't see a Publix/Greenwise, etc. opening any time soon in the area bounded by Jefferson, State/Union, Hogans Creek and McCoys Creek/St. Johns River. Perhaps a small bodega of some sorts but not Publix/Greenwise. Something like that will need to be positioned to a corridor that is easily accessible and visible to a population much larger than what's in the Northbank alone.

[jaxlongtimer]

^ The reason I figured the E-town Publix would cater to mostly those residents is that there are so many other Publix-es and competitive stores in adjacent areas such as on Baymeadows.  Also, all those 9B travelers likely have a Publix at either their ultimate destinations or origin (e.g. Town Center, Nocatee or Durbin)so no need to make a pit stop at E-town.

There's no Publix on US 1 but several residential developments being built between Old St. Augustine Road and CR 210 for example. Reaching an existing Publix from this particular fast growing area would require the driver to extend their commute into already congested areas. Getting to places like the Nocatee or Bartram Park Publixs would add several miles to those trips. However, reaching anything from US 1 to E-Town would only require a quick limited access hop onto (or off -- if already using it) SR 9B. Thus, it's not unrealistic to see that commercial development at the SR 9B /E-Town interchange can easily serve a larger population than what is proposed in E-Town itself.

Not to belabor the point(but I will, respectively  .

By far, the closest Publixes to US 1 in the area you speak of are on Race Track road at Durbin, Beachwalk on 210 and St. Augustine Road at Bartram Park.  They are all close enough (as little as 1 mile, no more than about 2.75 miles) to US 1 that a little traffic should not be an issue.  From the approximate midpoint on US 1 of the area you refer to, I see at least 5 miles to E-Town.

When E-Town is completed, given there is only one main road through it, that won't remain less congested for long either.  Psychologically, I also don't believe most people (other than long distance tourists, replenishing travel supplies, which are not likely to frequent 9B) would exit a high speed interstate just to shop at Publix which is more of a local road/convenience stop, not a store most would travel the interstate to get to outside of a rural area.

If residential density increases adequately on US 1, I would expect Publix to add another store directly on it at some point rather than relying on these other stores.

[thelakelander]

I have a property in the vicinity. If your trip takes you down SR 9B and not in the direction of any of those other locations, then the trip to a store not located along that trip is out of the way. For example, Beachwalk on 210 is another county. It's quicker to drive to several locations in Duval County if Publix is where you desire to go. If time and convenience is more important than the chain name, you end up going to a competitor.

As the area continues to rapidly grow, the opportunity for additional stores catering to the larger population creates itself. If it's not them, it will be the competition and then that's a potential market area they've lost out on. But make no doubt about it, no one is building a store that size and next to a full fledged interchange with the expectation that it is only to serve a limited captive audience. When E-Town is completed, you still won't have to drive through E-Town to reach that store at 9B. That interchange is set up to allow for commercial development that can also cater to the visibility and traffic created by SR 9B. If that were not important, Publix would be building in the middle of E-Town, far and away from immediate access and visual exposure to SR 9B traffic.

It will be no different from me getting coffee at Starbucks or gas from TA at the CR 210 interchange when driving to/from Central Florida. These places aren't necessarily opening to serve a specific subdivision or development. The market base they are setting up to cater to is much larger, at least that was the case when I worked on potential locations for their stores.

To bring this back to downtown Jacksonville, there's a reason McDonalds opened up on State and Union, instead of a random low volume intersection like Laura and Adams. There was a reason that Winn-Dixie moved from Ocean and Monroe to Union Street years ago. The higher volume streets allow for these businesses to access regional trips as well as the downtown market base. So if the DIA really wants to build a retail corridor effectively and efficiently, an important part of making that happen would be to look outside of the downtown silo and see how various corridors work regionally and take advantage of these market dynamics and site selection opportunities. There are numbers out there that can easily be obtained to support this, both in urban and suburban locations.

[fieldafm]

I have a property in the vicinity. If your trip takes you down SR 9B and not in the direction of any of those other locations, then the trip to a store not located along that trip is out of the way. For example, Beachwalk on 210 is another county. It's quicker to drive to several locations in Duval County if Publix is where you desire to go. If time and convenience is more important than the chain name, you end up going to a competitor.

As the area continues to rapidly grow, the opportunity for additional stores catering to the larger population creates itself. If it's not them, it will be the competition and then that's a potential market area they've lost out on. But make no doubt about it, no one is building a store that size and next to a full fledged interchange with the expectation that it is only to serve a limited captive audience. When E-Town is completed, you still won't have to drive through E-Town to reach that store at 9B. That interchange is set up to allow for commercial development that can also cater to the visibility and traffic created by SR 9B. If that were not important, Publix would be building in the middle of E-Town, far and away from immediate access and visual exposure to SR 9B traffic.

It will be no different from me getting coffee at Starbucks or gas from TA at the CR 210 interchange when driving to/from Central Florida. These places aren't necessarily opening to serve a specific subdivision or development. The market base they are setting up to cater to is much larger, at least that was the case when I worked on potential locations for their stores.

To bring this back to downtown Jacksonville, there's a reason McDonalds opened up on State and Union, instead of a random low volume intersection like Laura and Adams. There was a reason that Winn-Dixie moved from Ocean and Monroe to Union Street years ago. The higher volume streets allow for these businesses to access regional trips as well as the downtown market base. So if the DIA really wants to build a retail corridor effectively and efficiently, an important part of making that happen would be to look outside of the downtown silo and see how various corridors work regionally and take advantage of these market dynamics and site selection opportunities. There are numbers out there that can easily be obtained to support this, both in urban and suburban locations.

To further expand, the retail businesses within Brooklyn don't have a trade area of 1 mile, and aren't primarily serving the few hundred housing units located within the neighborhood's borders. Are those Brooklyn-specific housing units helpful? Yes, but they alone can't sustain a grocery store like a Fresh Market that has an average volume of around $10mm in annual sales and about 230-250 transactions a day.   

When looking at purchasing data, and accounting for the hours where the existing daytime population can be subtracted out, customers are coming from a large swath of zip codes, that are extending far beyond the 32202 zip code, due to the interstate highway access. The corridor is pulling significant purchasing power from the 32210, 32207, 32206, 32204, 32209 and 32254 zip codes. Spend a few days at Chipotle and see how many Edwards Waters students are picking up burrito bowls in the evening.

The Broad/Jefferson (particularly Broad); State/Union; and Adams Street corridors should all be treated as primary retail streets from a zoning and incentive perspective in order to benefit from the same type of retail renaissance happening in Brooklyn.   

The Wildlight and ETown Publix shopping centers are no different.  Those locations are positioned to benefit from the immediate trade area, as well as a much wider trade area due to the traffic patterns (more specifically, capturing more evening traffic flow from homebound commuters).