I don't believe that a Costco would be a good fit for downtown or the neighborhoods surrounding it. Nevertheless, I also seriously doubt this particular site would have been a "make or break" for them finding a store location on the westside of town. A make or break for Love's district perhaps, but not a make or break for opening a store in an area that meets the chain's site selection criteria.
If there's a market with demographics that meet their requirements, they'd find a site with visibility on a corridor that works. Perhaps they'd redevelop a vacant Kmart location, replace an aging underutilized strip mall or end up along one of the several First Coast Expressway interchanges being built? This particular area of Collins is now suitable for this type of retail development because of the hundreds of millions poured into Parramore, BJP's Collins Road extensions and roadway widenings and FDOT's investment of a new interchange with I-295.
So what was once a pretty worthless piece of privately owned property is now a high profile commercial site for that particular land owner. Will the amount of ad valorem and sales tax revenue of new development ever add up to the infrastructure investment cost subsidized by the state and city? That remains to be seen but probably not, if we start factoring the costs associated with the long term maintenance of the new infrastructure. Unfortunately, I'm not sure we seriously track those type of economic numbers locally.