Chinese fighter intercepts Navy Poseidon

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/us-china-usa-military-idUSKBN0GS2MZ20140828

Chinese interceptions of U.S. military planes could intensify due to submarine base

Thu, Aug 28 2014
By Greg Torode and Megha Rajagopalan

HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - One Chinese naval officer has advice for fighter pilots intercepting U.S. surveillance planes in the wake of an incident over the South China Sea last week that Washington condemned as dangerous - fly even closer.

The comments by Rear Admiral Zhang Zhaozhong from the National Defense University in Beijing, reported in state media this week, reflect what Chinese military experts say is China's determination to shield its expanding ballistic missile submarine fleet from U.S. spy planes.

Risky intercepts off China's coast are likely to continue, even intensify, the experts said, adding that such actions could represent a directive from above rather than the actions of rogue pilots.

"We didn't give them enough pressure (before)," Zhang said in the Global Times, a popular tabloid under the official People's Daily newspaper that is known for its nationalist sentiments. "A knife at the throat is the only deterrence. From now on, we must fly even closer to U.S. surveillance aircraft."

Pentagon officials said a Chinese fighter buzzed a P-8 Poseidon anti-submarine and reconnaissance plane on Aug. 19, at one point flying 9 meters (30 feet) from its wing tip before doing a barrel role over the top of it.

China dismissed the criticism as groundless and said the pilot had kept a safe distance.

A likely target of the U.S. surveillance is China's submarine fleet operating from a base in southern Hainan island, the military experts said.

Among the submarines using the base are large Jin-class vessels capable of carrying nuclear-armed ballistic missiles that are expected to form a key plank in China's nuclear deterrence strategy.

The precise operational readiness of China's three or four Jin-class vessels, including their missile launching capabilities, is not publicly known, military analysts said.

"Long-term, these submarines are China's only hope for a meaningful deterrence ... they are everything to China," said Zhang Baohui, a mainland security specialist at Hong Kong's Lingnan University and author of a forthcoming book on Beijing's nuclear strategy and forces.

FIRST STRIKE

Ballistic missile submarines are more important to China's nuclear deterrent than other major powers due to Beijing's policy, dating back to the 1960s, of not deploying nuclear weapons unless attacked with them first, he said.

This means China's larger land-based missiles are considered vulnerable to a first strike if Beijing fulfills its "no first strike" pledge during a conflict.

Having submarines able to travel far into the Pacific Ocean undetected with missiles that can reach the United States was therefore China's "only hope of a credible nuclear deterrent, as it secures second strike capability", Zhang added.

"Their deployment will, of course, complicate U.S. strategic calculations – and we may already be seeing the impact of that," Zhang said.

The P-8 Poseidon was southeast of Hainan in international airspace when it was intercepted.

A U.S. defense official said the Chinese pilot was from the same Hainan unit that appeared to be responsible for other encounters in March, April and May, part of what he called a rising trend of "nonstandard, unprofessional and unsafe" intercepts of U.S. aircraft since the end of 2013.

Six state-of-the-art P-8s were deployed to Okinawa in Japan starting late last year, replacing Cold War-era EP-3 aircraft.

Within Asian and Western military circles there is much debate about the skill and discipline of Chinese pilots.

One retired Chinese military officer, speaking to Reuters, countered that standards were "very high".

Sending Chinese fighters out to "drive away" U.S. surveillance planes was an effective tactic, said Wang Yanan, a military analyst and a senior editor at China's Aerospace Knowledge magazine.

Over time, the U.S. military might reduce the frequency of its surveillance missions, Wang told the Global Times.

Added Zhang, the security specialist: "These are not rogue pilots. I believe we will continue to see them challenging U.S. surveillance planes at very close range as a concerted effort."

A senior U.S. official in Washington said the Obama administration was unclear on how far up China's chain of command authorization may have been given for the aggressive flying or whether local commanders or pilots were acting on their own.

U.S. and Chinese military officials have been holding talks in Washington this week on rules of behavior. While the discussions were planned before the latest incident, they touch on issues at the core of U.S. concerns: that a Chinese provocation could spiral into a broader crisis.

Tokyo has also criticized similar flying by Chinese pilots in a controversial Air Defence Identification Zone that Beijing created over the East China Sea last November.

Japan scrambled fighter jets against Chinese planes 104 times in the April-June period, up 51 percent on the year but down from 128 scrambles in the previous quarter.

Taiwan said on Tuesday it had sent jets to intercept two Chinese military aircraft which breached its airspace four times on Monday. China said it was a routine mission.

HIDDEN BERTHS

A report in the Global Times claimed the P-8 had dropped a sonar buoy from its undercarriage, triggering the interception.

Indeed, surveillance by the United States was seriously damaging to China's security, Yang Yujun, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defence, said in a statement on Thursday.

Chinese media and Western military blogs have shown photographs in recent months of Jin-class submarines operating from the Hainan naval base, which includes hidden submarine berths built into a mountainside.

The submarines are eventually expected to be based permanently in Hainan, given its proximity to deep-water channels leading into the western Pacific.

Admiral Samuel Locklear, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said in March that China was continuing to produce submarines to be equipped with new missiles that had a range of more than 4,000 nautical miles.

China has 70 submarines, the United States 72 and Japan 18, according to The Military Balance 2014, a publication from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

"This will give China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent, probably before the end of 2014," Locklear said.

Those comments sparked debate among military experts about the effectiveness of the Jin-class, given reports they are noisy and thus easy to find. They are expected to be eventually replaced with a new generation of submarine.

P-8s routinely perform a range of maritime intelligence tasks that are part of a vast U.S. surveillance web across East Asia that includes satellites, undersea sensors, surface ships and nuclear-powered submarines the Pentagon bases in Guam.

The relatively shallow waters of the South China Sea are tricky operating conditions for U.S. submarines seeking to track rival vessels, putting extra importance on the P-8, said Asian and Western diplomats and military experts.

When asked if the United States would reduce surveillance flights to help the military relationship with China, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said current operations would continue along with efforts to build ties, without providing detail.

[finehoe]

For centuries China lay at the centre of things, the sun around which other Asian kingdoms turned. First Western ravages in the middle of the 19th century and then China’s defeat by Japan at the end of it put paid to Chinese centrality. Today an American-led order in the western Pacific perpetuates the humiliation, in the eyes of Chinese leaders. Soon, they believe, their country will be rich and powerful enough to seize back primacy in East Asia.

China’s sense of historical grievance explains a spate of recent belligerence. China has deployed ships and planes to contest Japan’s control of islands in the East China Sea, grabbed reefs claimed by the Philippines in the South China Sea and moved an oil rig into Vietnam’s claimed exclusive economic zone. All this has created alarm in the region. Some strategists say America can keep the peace only if it is firm in the face of Chinese expansionism. Others urge America to share power in East Asia before rivalries lead to a disaster.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21613263-after-bad-couple-centuries-china-itching-regain-its-place-world-how-should?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

[BridgeTroll]

Good article... 

[spuwho]

During the Cold War the Soviets and NATO constantly sniffed each other and by the late 70's they acquired a good sense of protocol about how to behave around each other.

However the PLA never acquired that protocol and so it is back to square one with them. Once we reach a level where both believe it's Ok to sniff on each other as part of the peace, then P-8 flyby will of no consequence.

For the PLA, no one is trying to humiliate them anymore. They got Hong Kong and Macau back peacefully under the agreed treaties. Taiwan is a different situation that again, will just need to be worked out through rational dialog. Not by lobbing missile tests across the strait 2 days before elections.

Yes, everyone including the Japanese agree that what happened in Nanking and Manchuria was wrong.

But exacting penance through military action will not recover a loss of face almost 80 years ago.

One must convince the PLA that face can best be restored through their economic capacities and their ability to dialog on even the most difficult of subjects.

However it is well known that the PLA embraced a new level of military capacity after NATO bombed their embassy in Belgrade during the meltdown of Yugoslavia. Never mind that Chinese intelligence was allowing Serbian intelligence to use their antennas to communicate with the field. The PLA did take that as a direct loss of face and they have vowed not to allow it again.

Their feelings about it are the same as our embassy taking in Tehran when the Shah fell. When you think of it in those terms, then you see why they get worked up.

The dialog with them must continue.

[BridgeTroll]

All that said... detecting and tracking submarines in international waters is SOP for the rest of the world.  Pretty standard stuff.  Better yet... if you don't want your submarines tracked... keep them at home... or make them more undetectable. 

[spuwho]

Agreed. Our sonar tracking network has the Jin subs well documented. Screw profile, magnetic profile, etc. etc.

But we have to keep our data current and that requires updated recon. Hence, more P8 flights. They upgrade, we recon.

[BridgeTroll]

Outstanding article from BBC... describes the actions of the Chinese vs Phillipines and Vietnam.  These claims will boil over one day...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_8701/index.html

Great BBC video!

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/v/fZgvqE89KvQ" target="_blank" class="new_win">http://www.youtube.com/v/fZgvqE89KvQ</a>


Below... Chinese outpost on Phillipine reef...


Building another...


More...

[BridgeTroll]

A mere year later...

WASHINGTON: What began with a tiny artificial island built by China to stake a concrete claim in the South China Sea is fast on its way to becoming 600 acres of at least seven islands spread across the South China Sea. One of the most impressive is so-called Fiery Cross Island, the permanent structure above complete with an air strip and, perhaps, the ability to permanently station advanced weapon systems there to patrol the skies and seas. Sen. John McCain made a point of asking Director of National Intelligence James Clapper about the Chinese actions just before the end of this morning Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on worldwide threats, calling the Chinese actions a rather dramatic change. DNI Clapper told the SASC this is a worrisome trend of the Chinese because of the tensions this is going to create in the South China Sea. They have been very aggressive about it. The biggest worry about these efforts by the Chinese is that they could base advanced aircraft and ships at some of these locations, trying to enforce their so-called Nine-Dash Line claiming most of the South China Sea. That would grant them the presumptive ability to block international shipping in an area every other country in the region  including the United States.

[spuwho]

The US has been trying to get all parties to sit down and discuss a framwork on the South China Sea. China was being passive aggressive about it until the Phillippines announced a big military buy with the US. China had fit about it and have pretty much accelerated their island grabs ever since.

It will boil over when they start detaching military units there.

The PLAN has been harassing US Navy ships passing through this area when they are alone. They stay clear when a carrier task force comes around however.

[BridgeTroll]

China will soon control one of the worlds busiest shipping lanes...

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/look-how-quickly-china-is-building-its-island-bases-out-1691571576

Look How Quickly China is Building Its Island Bases Out Of Nothing
Tyler Rogoway

China isn't just expanding its military reach into the South China Sea, it's rapidly building completely new islands, and as you'd expect, that's generating plenty of anxiety from the other nations in the neighborhood.
China is taking desolate reefs among the Spratly Islands and building them into man-made bases. Some see this as no more than a navigational headache and a regional issue with little impact. Others, however, believe it's a much more subversive activity, giving China the ability to claim a vast economic exclusion zone where it could control shipping, fishing, energy production, and even air travel over one of the busiest transportation corridors in the world.


Some of China's newly built islands are rumored to eventually become highly defended stationary "aircraft carrier battle groups" where they could house fighter aircraft, long range sensors, and missile systems – both of the surface-to-surface and surface-to-air variety. In doing so, China would be in the process of creating a fortress-like network of sea bases where it could project power and literally control the flow of a large portion of the world's shipping.

Currently, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei lay claim to some part of the Spratly Islands. None of these nations recognize China's claim on any of this territory, nor does the US. But short of a war, what can be done? Some of these emerging islands are already said to be occupied by highly trained Chinese commandos, and China is already building a long-range Coast Guard apparatus to protect their creations, in addition to it rapidly expanding naval forces, which includes a carrier strike group, at its disposal.



China has recently acquired some highly unique naval capabilities that are tailored for island-to-island and sea-to-island logistics, most notably and peculiarly purchasing Zubr Class hovercraft, and a license to produce them indigenously from Ukraine. Between an extremely long-range "Coast Guard" naval capability and the Zubr Class' ability to provide island accessible logistics on an unprecedented scale, it's clear that China is preparing to stake its claim on the Spratly Islands in a long-term, militarized way.

Although China's mainland coast is over 500 miles to the north of the Spratly Islands, China insists it has a cultural and historical claim on the territory. China has proclaimed that their sea-going ancestors discovered the islands long ago, and since then Chinese fisherman have harvested the waters as their own. Many view these claims as possibly relevant when it comes to maintaining China's fishing access in the region, but building artificial territory for strategic purposes is another story.


The reality is that under the UN's Law and Sea Convention, an island, even a small one, gets 12 nautical miles out to sea of territory to call its own and another 200 miles in any direction of mineral and fishing rights. You can imagine that if China has a string of these reefs-turned-sea-base-islands, they can claim a continuous swath of control ranging over hundreds of miles. With proven oil reserves measured in the billions of barrels and trillions of cubic feat of natural gas, China's man-made island chain also could end up greatly offsetting its ferocious appetite for energy, the vast amount of which the Chinese are relegated to importing.


As far as what can be done about China's potentially geopolitical norm-shattering island production campaign, there are few options that don't involve armed confrontation.

Washington has played the issue very softly, mentioning it from time to time, but not doing much in terms of confronting the Chinese on the issue directly. If Washington were to change course, which is possibly under a new Administration, the best way to do so would be to work with neighboring nations to pressure China into making a deal to share the territory in a way that's mutually beneficial. The only question is why would China sign on to such an agreement if it's already highly invested in commandeering the territory and growing its military might far exceeding that of all the nations with claims on the territory combined?


In the end, the US and the rest of the world may only confront China on the issue once Flanker fighter jets are flying from these man-made islands and missile batteries are being installed on them. At that point, short of dabbling in the possibility mutually assured economic destruction, whereby the Chinese could dump US bonds if America were to threaten high tariffs on Chinese goods, or other acts of negative reinforcement, it will probably be too late.

In actuality, China has every reason not to make a deal to share this highly strategic territory with its neighbors, including energy, fishing, shipping and air travel control, and will most likely just rely on the passive threat posed by its massive military as a deterrent against aggression and intervention. The only way to really have a shot at reversing what could be the biggest and most volatile territorial dispute of our time is to engage with China directly on the issue now, before construction on these islands is complete.

Considering how distracted the Obama Administration is with a whole slew of other issues, both external and internal, it's doubtful that this will happen. Meanwhile, the play clock is ticking down, and China is well aware of this.

[spuwho]

Its 1923 all over again. Except its not the Japanese Imperial government looking for natural resources, its the DPRC.

People may have forgotten but the Chinese oil company CNOOC tried to buy US based Union Oil to get access to proven reserves, but Congress didnt like the CNOOC ownership structure (mostly military) and blocked it on national security grounds.

So for the DPRC it really comes down to what is the most readily available resource that isnt already owned or controlled by a nuclear club member? I am jot justifying the acts, just explaining the motives.

The fact that they wont joint venture with anyone says more than the militaristic approach to keeping these islands.

Something bad will happen before its gets adequate attention.

[mbwright]

Nation building with a twist.  Let's not piss off China, since we get so much cheap clothing, and other products.  Sort of a love hate relationship, without benefits.

[BridgeTroll]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-18/u-s-navy-urges-joint-southeast-asia-patrols-of-south-china-sea

U.S. Navy Urges Southeast Asian Patrols of South China Sea

Bloomberg) -- The commander of the U.S. Navy Seventh Fleet called on Southeast Asian nations to form a combined maritime force to patrol areas of the South China Sea where territorial tensions flare with China.

Countries could streamline cooperation on maritime security while respecting sovereignty and coastal space, as in the case of counter-piracy efforts in the Gulf of Aden, Vice Admiral Robert Thomas said Tuesday at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition in Malaysia.

The U.S. has reassured allies in the region it will back them against China’s assertions to about four-fifths of the sea. China has ratcheted up pressure on some Association of Southeast Asian Nations members, and has accelerated reclamation work on reefs in the waters criss-crossed by claims from Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia.

“Perhaps easier said than done, from both a policy and organization perspective, such an initiative could help crystallize the operational objectives in the training events that Asean navies want to pursue,” Thomas said at a panel session with navy chiefs. “If Asean members were to take the lead in organizing something along those lines, trust me, the U.S. 7th Fleet would be ready to support.”

India, Japan

Singapore Defense Minister Ng Eng Hen said in an interview on March 16 that his country would welcome India playing a greater role in the South China Sea. In January, Thomas said the U.S. would encourage an extension of Japanese air patrols into the area. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott signed an agreement today to host Vietnam forces for training.

Both countries “support freedom of navigation by air and by sea in the South China Sea, we both deplore any unilateral change to the status quo,” he said in Canberra.

At Langkawi, the U.S. is exhibiting two F/A-18F Super Hornets, a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, as well as the Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Shiloh equipped with a MH-60R helicopter. The scale of the U.S. delegation to the show held every two years underscores its increased focus on the region.

‘‘There’s a lot of competition I would say in the South China Sea, but for the United States our goal is just peaceful resolution of any conflict,’’ said Captain John Enfield, a deputy Navy commander who flies one of the F/A-18F Super Hornets. ‘‘The U.S. doesn’t get dragged’’ into a discussion about resources, he said in an interview.

Code of Conduct

China agreed to talks with Asean over a code of conduct for the South China Sea in July 2013, but little progress has been made. The government in Beijing signed a non-binding declaration of conduct in 2002, which calls on parties to refrain from ‘‘inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays and other features.’’

The maritime force is ‘‘a nice idea, but it’ll never be anything meaningful,’’ said Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

‘‘Creating interoperability will be a nightmare, you need common communications equipment, intelligence-sharing agreements,’’ he said. ‘‘Above all you need a common threat perception.’’

Asean has consistently called for parties to show restraint on the South China Sea and preserve freedom of navigation. The 10-member bloc has avoided singling out China, its largest trading partner.

In May last year, rioters damaged Chinese businesses and factories in Vietnam after China parked an oil exploration rig in contested waters near the Paracel Islands. China warned of a hit to trade and investment ties unless the protests were halted. Several months later it withdrew the rig.

Asean nations are consistently occupied with managing conflicting boundary claims in the South China Sea, Malaysia Defense Minister Hussein Hishammuddin said Tuesday. This remains a major obstacle to upholding Asean’s zone of peace, freedom and neutrality, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sharon Chen in Singapore at schen462@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Rosalind Mathieson at rmathieson3@bloomberg.net Andy Sharp

[Gunnar]

Its 1923 all over again. Except its not the Japanese Imperial government looking for natural resources, its the DPRC.

...

Something bad will happen before its gets adequate attention.

Good thing the USA had not outsourced their manufacturing capabilities to Japan and Germany back then....

[finehoe]

U.S. Navy alarmed at Beijing’s ‘Great Wall of Sand’ in South China Sea

China is building “a great wall of sand” through an unprecedented program of land reclamation in the South China Sea, raising concerns about the possibility of military confrontation in the disputed waters, according to the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

Admiral Harry Harris Jr. told a naval conference in Australia late Tuesday that competing territorial claims by several nations in the South China Sea are “increasing regional tensions and the potential for miscalculation,” the Associated Press reported.

“But what’s really drawing a lot of concern in the here and now is the unprecedented land reclamation currently being conducted by China,” he said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-navy-alarmed-at-beijings-great-wall-of-sand-in-south-china-sea/2015/04/01/dda11d76-70d7-4b69-bd87-292bd18f5918_story.html