Peter Rummell parts ways with Mayor Alvin Brown.

[Cheshire Cat]

well one thing is certain, his support for Kim Scott is going to cost him.  And the whole HRO thing is going to be a serious pain in his ass.  Lots of hopeful young gay people worked very hard for him because they didnt want to face the prospect of tea party Hogan (who was actually from First Baptist, btw)

Those who know me, know that politics is my realm and particularly local politics.  The Kim Scott thing will be an issue if she can be fully exposed for her actions in Browns final term.  Unless that happens Kim Scott is not on the radar of most of Jacksonville or it's voters.  What is hurting Brown is the fact that he cannot lead and has been completely unable to not only take the city to that magical "other level" but more importantly to do what he promised from backing the GLBT community to pension reform.  He has caused a bigger rift between the city and police and firefighters unions than existed before and perhaps more importantly is not well liked by many in the Black community who also see him as a "wimp and sellout" when it comes to issues in the Black community.

this is the problem for Brown.  Most of the children who Kim Scott repeatedly exposed to asbestos were young african american children in neighborhoods that went for Brown.  Coming so soon on the heels of the Brown's dump soil replacement, this is going to hurt him in an area that he needs rock solid support in to win.

This is an issue that any good opponent to Brown will bring up during the race for Mayor.  Right now it is not on most folks radar, inspite the intense efforts of the good folks in Springfield who have exposed Scott but who is being protected by not only Brown but specific members of council.  Politics in Jacksonville is an ugly business much of the time.

[Cheshire Cat]

Well now the challenge is to get a qualified candidate, I would say.

There was a lot of reluctance for people to run against him because of the early poll that showed such 'support', but just being out in the community, I called that as very very soft support.

Thats been chiseled away, so perhaps a few more good candidates will step forward.

I literally do not have an opinion of Lenny Curry, but he seems to be the guy that everyone has been prepping for the past few months.

A few of the old guys don't really like that, but Brown hasnt really done anything to build bridges with them either.

I think this race is anyone's contest at this point, and Rummel's announcement is going to make that more pronounced.

Here is where the candidate situation stands right now.  Political strategists have know for some time now that Brown is completely vulnerable in the upcoming election.  There was a sentiment directing things for some time that embraced letting Brown move ahead with no real challenger because he was of no consequence to their influence.  However, that idea has become less and less popular in the GOP community as they have realized just how weak he is and that their influence on him has been compromised as Brown himself really believes he knows what he is doing and is supported in that fantasy by his administration. In the real world, the big players don't take Brown seriously and Rick Scott has been using him as a prop. As Brown's popularity dropped we saw individuals like Overton and Guilliford step forward and talk about running for the office.  Bill Bishop made his own choice to enter the race but he was not "ordained" by the local Republican establishment as their candidate. He is currently working on getting the needed funding for his run for office.  For a short while he stood to become that GOP candidate by default. 

What has happened in the past few weeks is that those Republican backers who supported Brown now know he is an utter failure and that it is unwise to simply let him continue to damage the city with his inability to lead and take care of the big issues.  Among the names floated for Mayor and more recently talked about has been Lenny Curry but he has not as yet himself said he is a candidate for Mayor.  There is a reason for that.  The GOP knows they have a real challenge ahead to keep Rick Scott in office.  Agenda wise, doing that is their top priority and Lenny Curry is an important player in that regard.  In order to pull him to run for mayor, they need to decide who can replace him at this stage of the game.  In the GOP he is a known and respected entity.  Peter Rummell publicly declaring his support of Curry today was a message to Curry that the movers and shakers of Jacksonville think he is the guy to take down Brown and they are prepared to support him.  So a major card was lain on the table today.  Now lets see if it is enough to get Curry into the race.  Lenny is a good man and a good person.  He is also utterly conservative so that should be a factor in the minds of liberals when they vote.  The Dem's are going to stick with Brown regardless.  There will be no other serious Dem candidate. 

[Cheshire Cat]

I asked Hogan point blank, Diane. And he said he would veto any ordinance like it, despite the gay children of some of his biggest supporters.

He may have told you that Stephen, but that was not my conversation. In the end Alvin bailed on the GLBT community to the point that he forced Gaffney's change in vote on the legislation that until that moment was poised to pass.  So the who issue is frankly mute and past history. 

[Kay]

How about finding out who the hay Lenny Curry is instead of this bickering about a past election.  Seems obvious at this point that Curry is who the Republicans will be getting behind.  What makes him qualified to be mayor?  Where does he stand on any issues? 

[Cheshire Cat]

Right now Lenny has not said if he is actually going to run, which is why Rummell made the very public statement that he would support Curry in the same article that he lists all of Browns shortcomings.  That is the flag waving that says Curry would get the needed financial support to run.  Rummell threw the gauntlet down and is waiting to see if Lenny picks it up.  As he is currently in GOP leadership for the state, he would get the needed funds and media to take Brown out of office.  We can't possibly know what his platform might be because he is not announced but it is pretty fair to assume that it would embrace much of the GOP viewpoint of government and governing.

[Cheshire Cat]

Well whatever that means.  Jvilles republicans are some of the most independent and generally reasonable republicans left in the country.

Is he a Rick Scott Republican or a John Delaney Republican?

I honestly don't know which he is more like.  Obviously he supports Rick Scott. That is a known fact.  As a leader or mayor, I kind of imagine him more Delaney than Scott.    As a person, I really like Lenny.  If he does get in the race I would want to know  what he would do about the issue of pensions and our troubled budget situation. In the changing face of the Republican party I would also like to know his feelings on the GLBT issue as well.  We generally know the Republican stance of taxes, but we also know that when money is needed a clever Republican will find a way to get it like Peyton did by calling it fees. 

Of course I would personally like to see a woman in the office of Mayor and the one I think could do it would be Lori Boyer but she has really shown no interest in the race.  I believe if Moran were to stand off with Brown again, she could possibly win if the GOP does not get behind Bishop or if Curry does not enter the race.  A lot of if's ands or but's remain.

[Jimmy]

I'm just going to drop some notes into this conversation...

Mayor Brown's campaign manager and field staff met with leaders of the LGBT community quickly after the First Election in 2011 (on March 26, 2011).  There wasn't some question in our minds after that meeting as to which direction a Mayor Brown would go on the HRO issue: we left that meeting assured that as Mayor, Alvin Brown would have our back if we had his in the General Election.  So we contributed, we walked, we phone banked, and celebrated the victory.  I don't know if we had a "campaign in poetry, govern in prose" situation, but the tone and the tune changed in a hurry after the swearing in.

Back when we were putting the first HRO push together, prior to the election even, we reached out to Lenny Curry in his capacity as the head of the Duval REC.  I wouldn't have characterized Mr. Curry as a supporter of the HRO at that time, but neither was he a detractor.  A lot of people have moved on the issue since the 2010-2011 timeframe.  Most have moved our way; some have moved the other way.  Considering Mr. Rummell's influence and backing in favor of the HRO in 2012, it's hard to imagine him now offering a potential candidate who would depart from the Civic Council and Chamber's position on the issue.  But who knows?  This is among the many questions people will have for Mr. Curry as he considers his options and we consider ours.

I hope Lenny Curry is a John Delaney Republican and not a Mike Hogan Republican.  But I've learned after too many years of this that hopes - and even some nice words - don't account for much.  I need to see something before I'll believe in it.

[Cheshire Cat]

Jimmy:
I hope Lenny Curry is a John Delaney Republican and not a Mike Hogan Republican.  But I've learned after too many years of this that hopes - and even some nice words - don't account for much.  I need to see something before I'll believe in it.

This is an unhappy truth which is why voters need to look beyond charisma and promises and investigate the past stances, work, public involvement etc of those running for local office whether it be Mayor or council.  I will give some info to folks going forward on some of the candidates that I know the most about and I can imagine the opinions of the candidates will be all over the place regardless of some facts.  As the races stand now, this very day, there are only three or four races that I see with candidates that have the understanding and concern to govern for "all" of the people. The others are huge question marks.  I hope we get more good candidates and soon so that we can begin our due diligence.

[tufsu1]

How about finding out who the hay Lenny Curry is instead of this bickering about a past election.  Seems obvious at this point that Curry is who the Republicans will be getting behind.  What makes him qualified to be mayor? 

absolutely nothing

[Cheshire Cat]

How about finding out who the hay Lenny Curry is instead of this bickering about a past election.  Seems obvious at this point that Curry is who the Republicans will be getting behind.  What makes him qualified to be mayor? 

absolutely nothing

Is this comment a result of your in depth knowledge of Mr. Curry and his capabilities or simply an opinion?  Honest question. 

[mtraininjax]

I'll carry the tennis ball for a while here.

Aside from the Brown and Hogan debate, what makes Curry Mayoral material, in Jacksonville? What positions has he held locally that call him into being a qualified candidate? Seems to me the last "outsider" came in from DC, pissed off the city morale, leaders and is now on the 4th floor of 117 West Duval Street in the catbird's seat.

I don't see Curry coming in and able to lead, we are a big small town, and you cannot come in and think you can run Jacksonville like you think you can run Tampa or Miami or Orlando. We're different and for good reason. But.....after what Brown did and said in the last election, it is painfully obvious that ANY candidate will say ANYTHING to get elected.

[Cheshire Cat]

^Well, in all fairness, in response to the "you think you can run the city etc" comment,  Lenny himself hasn't said anything about it one way or the other. We don't know what he is thinking but we do know he is being encouraged to run for the seat. Some local players both within the GOP and outside of it have had it with Brown and his inability to lead and are looking for a candidate they think can bring in the needed financial support to run. As an elected office holder outside of his GOP post we don't know how Curry might lead, but we do know that he has some very good experience when it comes to what will or will not make for a winning campaign and that like it or not is going to be an important factor in this race. My guess is that request has more to do with Curry being a person of profile in the GOP as opposed to much else at this stage.

The other candidate of note, Bill Bishop has chosen the same campaign strategists that worked for Hogan last time around.  Not sure if that is a good or bad thing depending on what they learned the last time around.

[spuwho]

Sometimes we the voters put too much emphasis on the candidates political philosophy and don't place enough on their ability to lead. Great leaders can be flexible, but also able to convince those they lead on the goals they wish to pursue.  Great leaders work to build consensus and aren't afraid to be criticized or work with those that criticize them.

Great leaders aren't afraid to make mistakes and aren't afraid to admit them. Great leaders are also willing to defer credit to their staff when their is credit to be given.

IMHO. More emphasis on the ability to have leadership, less emphasis on the political variances.

[Jimmy]

I wish to goodness that we could have true nonpartisan unitary municipal elections in Jacksonville. Or, failing that, a true party-primary system. I know it's technically off-topic, but I think we're in the mess we are now because party labels are not serving us in these local elections.

[Cheshire Cat]

I wish to goodness that we could have true nonpartisan unitary municipal elections in Jacksonville. Or, failing that, a true party-primary system. I know it's technically off-topic, but I think we're in the mess we are now because party labels are not serving us in these local elections.

And that is largely because Duval is an important stronghold when it comes to who keeps power in the office of governor which is the real prize.