Author Topic: 2012 City Population Estimates Released  (Read 26307 times)

simms3

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2013, 09:14:13 PM »
I beg to disagree.  Miami is the antithesis of a Millennial Market.  This could be a real debate, and I would be willing to bet it's not too hard to poke holes in the Miami = Millennial hub argument (in fact off the top of my head I can poke several major holes, starting with the job market, which sucks for college grads/MBAs down in SoFla, which is why nobody goes there, LoL).  That's not to say there isn't a set of drivers in Miami - but a stellar, high paying job market (needed for the COL down there I might add) is not one of them.  Foreign money, tourism/hospitality, and the real estate/construction driven by the prior two are it.

On top of not offering the quality or quantity of jobs necessary to be considered a destination Millennial market, the local job market is notoriously exclusive to Spanish speakers and Latin Americans, which automatically turns off most Millennials in the US.  Furthermore, the city/region doesn't have the traditional ingredients that most other top 10 or top 20 markets considered appealing to Millennials have.

Anyway, moving on...the city does have a set of drivers.  I've heard it said that a bet on Miami is a bet on the USD, like I've heard that a bet on Houston is a bet on oil.  I don't think Jax has any definitive drivers, which imho holds it back.  Jax needs to develop a couple of traditional domestic knowledge-based economic drivers (as opposed to the foreign appeal of Miami and the strength/stability of the USD relative SA currencies).
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dougsandiego

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2013, 11:20:58 PM »
San Diego is slipping too, but the people here offer a collective shrug. Remember, it's quality that counts, not quantity. Mumbai is really big, but would you want to live there? There is a lot of new construction underway in the city now, and prices are climbing fast which is bad for working families. The median for the whole county, single family homes and condos, just topped $400k. On the plus side, in Centre City there are four-parks and an expanded central square and a great new central library under construction. It's all about quality of life. This is where your site focuses. Quality of life is much more important than the number of people within your boundary or the height of your buildings.

simms3

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #32 on: May 29, 2013, 12:32:16 AM »
^^^Yes, I've heard SD offers a great quality of life.  Still haven't been down there (I'm in SF and travel down to LA every so often), but my company is looking at some real estate deals down in SD.  $400K?  That's cheap!!   ;D
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simms3

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #33 on: May 29, 2013, 02:52:52 AM »
Here's someone's recent photo update from the weekend in an area of SF known as Upper Market, which runs through the Castro, Duboce Triangle, and Mission Dolores neighborhoods.  Just to highlight the extent of infill in literally one small section of the city - Jax needs to get its act together because the two most dense, most built out cities in America are still adding residential and attracting tons more people!  I envisioned projects such as these occupying empty lots in Springfield, which is why I was never vocally angry or sad about losing homes there...but now I realize nothing like this will happen and nothing will replace those empty lots, so SAVE those houses!

Quote
Quote from: timbad;6145180
a lot of the upper Market St projects are all still in their burkas, but we can at least get a sense of what their bulk will feel like once they are done.  west to east, here are some of them (I didn't get a shot of Icon, closest to Castro) on a gray Memorial Day:

north side of Market at 15th, former Thai restaurant, looking west:



kitty-corner from it, former gas station on south side of Market, being excavated:



the Whole Foods at Dolores, as seen when approaching from the east:



... and from across the street:



kitty-corner from there, former gas station on the corner of Buchanan, looking east:



and looking west from across the street:



next to the LGBT Center, former hole in the ground:



and looking west:



Market and Octavia is still being dug out; hard to get a good shot of the work.  this is looking south down the length of the lot:



and the BMR component of the Buchanan project, at Page and Franklin, what could be a gateway into Hayes Valley, tho there are a couple parking lots just north of this intersection crying out to be filled with something productive:



... and a bit more in context, with glimpses of some of the other projects in the distance:


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tufsu1

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #34 on: May 29, 2013, 08:11:25 AM »
On top of not offering the quality or quantity of jobs necessary to be considered a destination Millennial market, the local job market is notoriously exclusive to Spanish speakers and Latin Americans, which automatically turns off most Millennials in the US.

guess you haven't taken notice of the fastest growing demographic group in the country huh?

btw, 2010 Census data for Miami-Dade County shows 588,000 people between the ages of 18 and 34....which comprises 24% of the countywide total...the state average is 18%, so I stand by my statement that Miami hold its own with millenials
« Last Edit: May 29, 2013, 08:17:42 AM by tufsu1 »

thelakelander

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #35 on: May 29, 2013, 09:33:50 AM »
Since when did Latin Americans start scaring off millennials?
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Tacachale

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #36 on: May 29, 2013, 10:28:00 AM »
^And what about Hispanic American millennials?
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

simms3

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #37 on: May 29, 2013, 11:39:00 AM »
Jacksonville is also young - but would you call it a Millennial market?  LoL  Let's get serious here.  Denver is a Millennial market.  Not only is it young, it attracts a wide range of Millennials from all over and provides high paying jobs for them, as well as the quality of life they desire.  JOBS is the key.  JOBS for everyone.  Young/growing industries, too.

Miami is young for other reasons.  It doesn't have the robust job market, and it doesn't offer the lifestyle that many millennials stereotypically seek.  It's antithetical to what most young people want.

And Lake, obviously Latin Americans don't scare off millennials, there are plenty of Latin Millennials.  As Stephen said, let's not conflate my statement.  I went to college with many South Americans and Cubans from Miami, some went back to Miami (basically the only kids from my college who found jobs in Miami, and others moved on to other cities as most do).

And Tacachale - Hispanic American is wide sweeping.  Miami has very few Mexicans...there's proof alone in the pudding that not even all Spanish speakers feel at home in Miami due to cultural differences.  In fact, there aren't even that many Puerto Ricans in Miami.  If I were Mexican American, I'd sure as hell rather be in Denver, LA, Chicago, Houston, or just about anywhere but Miami (wouldn't it be awkward being the only Mexican in Miami, but still amongst other Spanish speakers who may subconsciously view you as somehow inferior?).
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thelakelander

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #38 on: May 29, 2013, 11:52:58 AM »
Meh.  Simms has a point on the language barrier though.  Hispanics account for only 16.7 of the US Population, and a job market that is really only open to 16.7 percent of anyone isn't exactly a draw.  take into account that among that 16.7% only 25% of them are Millenials and you have about 4% of the US Population left.

Its a large number, but there are other bilingual cities.

And I think its unfair to conflate Simms language barrier statement.  Limiting the higher paying job market to white kids from the ivy league during the 1950s and 1960s didnt work out so well either.  A lot of talent and raw financial connections were excluded from firms and organizations who simply went elsewhere.

As in San Francisco and Chicago.

Meh.  I'm not sold on that explanation in regards to South Florida.  It's an animal that doesn't necessarily fit into white America's traditional perspective on urban history and development.  If anything, its degree of diversity makes it an attractive niche market.  The census numbers reflect this.
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thelakelander

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #39 on: May 29, 2013, 11:59:53 AM »
And Lake, obviously Latin Americans don't scare off millennials, there are plenty of Latin Millennials.  As Stephen said, let's not conflate my statement.  I went to college with many South Americans and Cubans from Miami, some went back to Miami (basically the only kids from my college who found jobs in Miami, and others moved on to other cities as most do).

Different major but my college experience was significantly different.  At the time, FAMU SOA's (School of Architecture) demographics had a heavy percentage of students from Florida and the Caribbean. Over the last decade, the majority ended up going and spending some time in either South Florida, Central Florida or Atlanta.  The Deep South may view South Florida as having a language barrier but that barrier doesn't exist for other regions.  That place is really an international gateway to the US (at least to the Caribbean) and it's diversity reflects that.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

tufsu1

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #40 on: May 29, 2013, 12:02:58 PM »
Jacksonville is also young - but would you call it a Millennial market?  LoL  Let's get serious here.  Denver is a Millennial market.  Not only is it young, it attracts a wide range of Millennials from all over and provides high paying jobs for them, as well as the quality of life they desire.  JOBS is the key.  JOBS for everyone.  Young/growing industries, too.

Miami is young for other reasons.  It doesn't have the robust job market, and it doesn't offer the lifestyle that many millennials stereotypically seek.  It's antithetical to what most young people want.

dude....have you been to Miami lately?  Not that I want to lump all young people together, but I think they are often looking for a lively music & cultural scene, a multitude of dining options, lots of recreational opportunities, and often hip cool urban housing....all of which Miami (and Miami Beach) have in abundance!

as for Jacksonville and millenials....the same data source that said 18-34 year olds make up 24% of Miami-Dade population says Duval is also at 24%....a key difference here vs. Miami would be the # of folks in the Navy...btw, do they count as millenials to you?
« Last Edit: May 29, 2013, 12:05:09 PM by tufsu1 »

Tacachale

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #41 on: May 29, 2013, 12:19:10 PM »
And Tacachale - Hispanic American is wide sweeping.  Miami has very few Mexicans...there's proof alone in the pudding that not even all Spanish speakers feel at home in Miami due to cultural differences.  In fact, there aren't even that many Puerto Ricans in Miami.  If I were Mexican American, I'd sure as hell rather be in Denver, LA, Chicago, Houston, or just about anywhere but Miami (wouldn't it be awkward being the only Mexican in Miami, but still amongst other Spanish speakers who may subconsciously view you as somehow inferior?).

1 in 5 Millennials are Hispanic. Miami obviously doesn't have any trouble attracting Hispanics from various regions, countries and backgrounds, considering that, well, over 60% of the county is made up of Hispanics from various regions, countries and backgrounds. It's highly dubious that this quality "automatically turns off most Millennials in the US". At least in terms of Florida, I don't think Miami is having a hard time attracting and keeping Millennials.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #42 on: May 29, 2013, 12:20:27 PM »
Well two things:

1.  Saying that something is an attractive market is different from claiming that it is a 'millenial generation' city.  Certainly New Orleans is an attractive market.  But it most definitely is not an attraction to Millenials.

Two things:

1. What is your definition of a millennial?  I believe this is key to where this conversation goes.

2. Who said anything about a millennial 'generation' city?  From my view, the defense of South Florida is that it holds its own in attracting and retaining millennials.  As shown above, the census numbers reflect that. Are you disagreeing with the Census?

Quote
2.  I think the thing being complained about is Miami's lack of broad diversity.  It is certainly not a city for young asian investors, for example.  And even within 'hispanic' cultures it can be a pretty bigoted city.

Interestingly, Miami itself is concerned about this problem. (of not having an 'engaged' millenial generation}

In a report last year, partly sponsored by University of Florida:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=miami%20millenial%20generation&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDsQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncoc.net%2Findex.php%3Fdownload%3D114kcfl1351&ei=ZiamUf_qJIe-9gSdxYGYCA&usg=AFQjCNG5leUdwy90rNNWAQT-eMMsIP0NQA&sig2=56P7NHyBkAf-NAnA9fZ5GA&bvm=bv.47008514,d.eWU

This report examines the civic health of the Millennial generation in the Miami metropolitan area.1 It follows previous civic health index reports, which contrasted Miami, the least engaged metropolitan area in the nation, with Minneapolis-St. Paul, the most engaged, and the 2011 Florida Civic Health Index, which provided a statewide view of civic engagement among Florida’s Millennial generation.

The coming of age of the Millennial generation—the huge cohort of young people ages 18-30—represents a potentially seismic shift in American politics, society and culture. In sheer size, these teens and twenty- somethings outnumber the adults of the Baby Boom generation. In racial and ethnic terms, they are the most diverse generation in American history: some 40 percent are non-white. And they’re the most educated, with a larger percentage attending college and fewer dropping out of high school than ever before.

Florida is at the forefront of this profound demographic shift. It is an emerging “majority-minority” state with one of the largest young, non-white populations in the nation. The changing demographics of the Sunshine State are, in large part, driven by the Miami metropolitan area. Thus, by examining civic engagement levels of Miami Millennials we hope to provide a glimpse into the future civic health of Florida. We are certainly aware that an examination of civic engagement of the least engaged generation residing in the least engaged metropolitan area will reveal findings that are of great concern. However, the goal of this report is to also serve as a point of departure in generating community conversations about the means by which individuals can become more engaged in civic life. Ultimately, solutions to the "Civic Engagement Deficit" in the Miami metropolitan area must emerge from citizens and institutions working together to realize a shared vision of an engaged civic community.

Lol, if South Florida isn't culturally diverse, places like Jacksonville, Austin, Nashville and Charlotte must really suck.  Nevertheless, I don't see this report as being proof that Miami is not attracting or retaining millennials.
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Tacachale

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #43 on: May 29, 2013, 12:21:51 PM »
I think both Stephen and Simms are both falling afoul of their own terminology. Not all Millennials are "young professionals", and vice versa.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2013, 12:38:51 PM by Tacachale »
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
« Reply #44 on: May 29, 2013, 12:27:05 PM »
For Forbes list of the top cities for Millenials check here.  (hint:  none of them are in Florida)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2013/04/24/the-10-happiest-cities-for-young-professionals/2/

This highlights some places Forbes believes young professionals are more attracted to. However, it does not suggest that every place not shown on the list is failing to attract and retain millennials.

Btw, millennials aren't necessarily "young professionals". In general, millennials (also known as Generation Y, Echo Boomers, etc.) are the generation of people born between the early 1980s and 2000′s.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali