2012 Metropolitan Area Census Estimates Released

[Metro Jacksonville]

2012 Metropolitan Area Census Estimates Released



The latest U.S. Census metropolitan area population estimates for the U.S. and Puerto Rico as of July 2012 have been released. Find out where Jacksonville ranks.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2013-mar-2012-metropolitan-area-census-estimates-released

[Jason]

Nice breakdown.  Although it other areas are growing faster, the pace at which Jax is growing seems a bit more steady.

[Shine]

Interesting data.  Population growth pretty light through the period.  Less than I would have guessed.   Questions is: what is healthy growth?  What is sustainable growth without reductions in quality of life measures?  If population growth is turning flat, maybe more emphasis on “prosperity models” – increases in quality of life, education, productivity, average wages, etc.  It is interesting, if you study the economics of small towns with major universities, you often find many aspects of the prosperity model and an associated high quality of life.  Expansion of UNF has been a healthy move and the idea about bringing more educational institutions to the city may be the right track – ie, Mullany’s idea about a medical school.  Would you rather be bigger or better? 

[thelakelander]

Interesting data.  Population growth pretty light through the period.  Less than I would have guessed.   Questions is: what is healthy growth?

Healthy growth is growth that pays for itself while also being a fiscal and quality-of-life benefit on the surrounding community.  Much of our recent growth over the last two decades wasn't exactly healthy.  We're not rapidly growing like years past but that's not necessarily a negative thing.  After all, we could be in Cleveland's situation.  What truly concerns me is our lack of will to invest in ourselves. We keep that up and the growth we have now will stagnant.

What is sustainable growth without reductions in quality of life measures?  If population growth is turning flat, maybe more emphasis on “prosperity models” – increases in quality of life, education, productivity, average wages, etc.  It is interesting, if you study the economics of small towns with major universities, you often find many aspects of the prosperity model and an associated high quality of life.

I think the story of Pittsburgh is an interesting one to follow.  Although a lot of population has been shed (same as Jacksonville if we take away consolidation), that city has virtually recreated it's economic structure and quality-of-life offerings. From manufacturing steel into a place catering to research and technology, putting itself in great position for the 21st century economy.

Only three major U.S. cities see economic recovery: study
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/30/us-usa-cities-recovery-idUSBRE8AT08R20121130

Rust Belt Renaissance: The Future American City
http://thepolitic.org/rust-belt-renaissance-pittsburgh-and-the-future-of-the-american-city/

Expansion of UNF has been a healthy move and the idea about bringing more educational institutions to the city may be the right track – ie, Mullany’s idea about a medical school.  Would you rather be bigger or better? 

I'd rather be better.  Port-au-Prince has over 2.4 million in it's metropolitan area and nearly 950,000 people living within it's 13 square miles of land area. Being big with rapid population growth means nothing in the grand scheme of things when it comes to quality-of-life.

[Steve Ducharme]

I've been here since 1978 and more or less "grown up" with the city. Until this latest downturn I've always been impressed with how steadily the Jacksonville area has withstood the extreme highs and lows of economic factors that have walloped other regions of the country.  Population growth, jobs, housing were on a steady (and IMHO healthy) pace for three decades.  No it wasn't all things to all people but compare to other growth horror shows I'd seen in other parts of the country it wasn't bad.  Alas it looks like even our teflon regional economy has been taking some bad hits in the last five years or so.  Time will tell I suppose but I'm not betting against us.

[Ocklawaha]

Also a sleeper if we're being completely honest about what a metropolitan area really is, the city of El Paso, Texas, Las Cruces, New Mexico and Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua, Mexico,  a truly international city is now above 2.3 million. This puts the combined city's, (El Paso and Juarez share a common skyline) around the same size as Pittsburgh +/-. As the population of Juarez has exploded.  In 2001 the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published a report stating that in Ciudad Juárez "the average annual growth over the 10-year period 1990–2000 was 5.3%. Juárez experienced much higher population growth than the state of Chihuahua and than Mexico as a whole." Also this: "The city has a growing industrial center which is made up in large part by more than 300 maquiladoras (assembly plants) located in and around the city. According to a 2007 New York Times article, Ciudad Juárez "is now absorbing more new industrial real estate space than any other North American city." In 2008, fDi Magazine designated Ciudad Juárez "The City of the Future." Only the international cities of Tijuana-San Diego are larger.

[thelakelander]

What about Detroit and Windsor?  Aren't their combined MSA numbers larger or are they only talking about on the US/Mexico border?

[Ocklawaha]

Must be just on the Mexican border as Detroit/Windsor has something like 5,700,000 people. If Juarez doubles again, they could catch or pass them. The new fabrication and assembly plants in Juarez are springing up as fast as US companies can build them, then tens of thousands of Mexican citizens move north and pour into the newly created jobs. By the way, Juarez is the 'new' most dangerous city in the world.

[edjax]

The situation with Cleveland makes the downtown situation with Jax look even more frustrating. That is a city of declining population and a horrible economy but yet their downtown is far more advanced that Jax and they continue to invest in their downtown despite all of these negatives while Jax sits on the sidelines. Just goes to show you that it takes people with vision and a desire to truly make downtown important. Very sad statement about Jax.

[Ocklawaha]

Jax is doing fine by the numbers, true we're not Mickeylando but at this point, I'd count that as a positive. Our growth is solid and steady and we've moved up several notches in the numbers. As for downtown, we have a VERY BEAUTIFUL pallet to work with, Cleveland doesn't. Consider that we are worried about 3 major properties downtown: Laura trio, Barnett Bank and the Bostwick Building. Cleveland, Detroit and a dozen or more are concerned with hundreds, even thousands of similar structures. Philadelphia actually came up with a plan that would demolish 1/3 of its housing stock. We're not where we'd like to be but then Valhalla is only obtained in the afterlife.

[I-10east]

^^^Agreed Ock. Besides Cleveland had a good head start on us with population. According to MJ, in 1950 CLE's population was 914,808, and JAX was just at 204,517. If there's anyone that's slowly but surely gaining on the another, it's us on Cleveland. All I know is that more than ever downtown is being mentioned by the city's admin as an important priority, so I'm not buying the 'DT is currently being ignored' talk. Just look at the recent DT stores and restaurants and not to mention proposals.

[Shine]

Talk about “benchmarking” – other cities to compare to, three I like for different reasons:  Portland OR, Raleigh-Durham NC, and Charlotte NC.  Portland has a highly progressive environmental and urban planning eithic woven into its government regulatory system.  Think about two industrial port cities in the 1970s, Jacksonville and Portland would have been very similar.  Portland today has an excellent quality of life and attracts an abundance of high paying tech employers, among others.  Similar to Jax in size and population and bounded by significant outdoor recreation.  Raleigh-Durham was a place to stem tobacco in the 1960s, higher education systems led the way to research, science and tech jobs – very desirable town and not too big.  And then there is Charlotte, NC – much like Jacksonville prior to the 1970s, it pulls ahead in jobs – has done an excellent job with its downtown.  The reason Charlotte beat Jacksonville for the initial NFL expansion team award: "better purchasing power" (NFL loves those aftermarket royalties).  The question becomes, how did they do it and how long did it take?  Can’t get there by accident.

[vicupstate]

Consider that we are worried about 3 major properties downtown: Laura trio, Barnett Bank and the Bostwick Building. Cleveland, Detroit and a dozen or more are concerned with hundreds, even thousands of similar structures.

I don't think you can say there are only 3 major properties to worry about.  Ambassador Hotel (yes I know there are plans for it, but there have been plans in the past too), The Jones Furniture building, The Baptist Convention building, Furchgotts, many buildings in LaVilla, and that's before we even mention the moonscape of dirt and surface lots that stretch as far as the eye can see. 

[edjax]

My point on Cleveland is despite their issues they are currently doubling the size of their convention center downtown and ready to open a new Medical Mart downtown. In addition they have opened the first phase of a casino in an old department store. Their downtown is also home to 4 performance theaters, a cinema and major hotels such as a Ritz, Hyatt, JW Marriott and Renassaiance. Not to mention several other drawing points so I would say we are in a much dire position even if they may have a few more buildings to address.

[thelakelander]

Cleveland's downtown is actually pretty decent, given the metropolitan area's economic struggles.  There you have an urban core that has lost population at a similar rate to Jacksonville's pre-merger city since 1950.  However, unlike Jax, their suburbs are pretty stagnant to. Nevertheless, I was pretty impressed with downtown Cleveland, their BRT corridor (yes, I'm admit it), and the University Circle area during my last visit. They've poured a ton of investment into the area in recent years:









If we could achieve 25% of the vibrancy and activity it had in 2009, by 2015, we'd be doing great in our efforts to revitalize downtown Jacksonville.