Jacksonville's Future Needs Your Support

[Parag Adhyaru]

Indeed I agree with Bill- the U-3 is gamed to appear a lot better than the reality while the bigger picture(year over year) is one of continuing stagnation. By the unadjusted BLS data the broadest measure of unemployment(U-6) barely moved over the past year and sits at 15.4%. To give perspective there were only three years - the three worst years of the Great Depression - which had higher unemployment. You can see the numbers from Michael Darby on page three Table 1 in the link below for reference.

http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/maremp93.pdf

It is almost a certainty that the economy is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. What is lost on almost all politicians and people in general is that there is no known historical precedent for growing out of the level of debt we have in the US. The most extreme example I know of was in the 1800s when the United Kingdom was able to grow out of a debt of around 260% of their GDP. (The Industrial Revolution helped) In our case if we include off balance sheet liabilities we're well over 500%. Pimco's Bill Gross believes that number to be much higher though I haven't found his numbers. I would also add that GDP is a lousy measure of growth since a large component is driven by debt. Thus at some point the US must face a restructuring. Some debt will need to be written off, some will be paid and a some of it will be inflated away. Debt never matters until it is the only thing that matters. It's an old tale.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." - Mark Twain

Best,
P

Except for this,

The state's "labor-force participation rate" — the percentage of working-age Floridians in a job or looking for one — has slipped from 64.2 percent in 2007 to 61.1 percent in 2010 and 60.2 percent in December 2012. Florida's average labor-force participation rate for all of 2012 was 60.4 percent, the lowest annual level since 1985.

The declining rate is important because it artificially amplifies progress on unemployment. With fewer people in the labor pool, it is mathematically easier to drive down the jobless rate. In Florida's case, the impact is significant, said Rollins College economist William Seyfried.

The unemployment rate fell from a high of 11.4 percent in February 2010 to 8 percent in December 2012. But if the labor-force participation rate had remained constant, December's jobless rate would have been more than 2 percentage points higher, Seyfried said

[fieldafm]

It is almost a certainty that the economy is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. What is lost on almost all politicians and people in general is that there is no known historical precedent for growing out of the level of debt we have in the US.

Not to comment on what is going on at the federal government level.. but at the local level this is exactly why we should not place a moratorium on Mobility Fees.  The banking fund (which is a cute word for 'debt') has already grown quite a bit over the last 4 years in order to fund transportation needs. 

Additionally, ad valorum taxes simply DO NOT cover the cost of services needed in the future.  The only local option outside of Mobility Fees to pay for current and future transportation needs would be to either take on bond debt (for example, the City took on almost $300 million for the infrastructure required to build a strip mall on the Northside- River City Marketplace, and the ad valorum revenue brought in doesnt even service the interest payments) or raise the general sales tax rate.

So in the absence of the revenue generated by Mobility, COJ will either ask voters to approve a sales tax increase or (MORE LIKELY) just keep whipping out the old credit card.

Is that what fiscal conservatism is all about?  If so, I've been going by a completely different definition all these years.   

[Overstreet]

Don't you think a $442k mobility fee on a 7-11 project valued at $500k seems a little odd?

[dougskiles]

There is no denying that adjustments can and should be made to how the fee is calculated.  But that doesn't mean we have to throw out the entire system.  The only way people will be motivated to fix it is if they have to pay it.

We had an entire year to evaluate these results, and nobody said anything until AFTER the moratorium expired.

[thelakelander]

Don't you think a $442k mobility fee on a 7-11 project valued at $500k seems a little odd?

Yes.  7-11 cost a lot more than $500k to build. That's another ploy of the spreadsheet.  It compares the full mobility fee with a portion of the true project's cost.  For example, it lists the $950k job cost for McDonald's/Family Dollar on Market Street, which makes the $300k mobility fee look totally out of wack.  However, the true cost of the McDonald's/Family Dollar project is $3.7 million.

Those who spend a lot of time in the industry can smell a rat when it pops up pretty easily.  However, to the average person who doesn't know how much it actually costs to build some of these projects, the fee can look excessive.  Yet, when you waive these guys from paying anything, it means the $2 billion Outer Beltway or $40 million overpass at Kernan & Atlantic comes out of your pocket. In the meantime, that pack of gummy bears at 7-11 is going to cost you the same regardless of if they pay a local impact fee or not.

[thelakelander]

Btw, with all of that said, that $442k mobility fee on 7-11 probably needs to be higher for them to cover their real cost on public infrastructure.  Full fledged gas stations and drive thru fast food restaurants are some offenders of auto trip generation.

[fieldafm]

Don't you think a $442k mobility fee on a 7-11 project valued at $500k seems a little odd?

I don't have the numbers on the Kernan 7-11 in front of me, but I can very vividly recall the cost of the Lane Ave 7-11 which was actually $1.3mm.  The $500k job cost number is just a ploy to make the percentages look inflated by only counting a portion of the cost.  Most mobility fees for non-drive through businesses around 3-10% of the cost of the project.  For a convenience store that generates quite a few auto trips, the fees are generally higher by design b/c the very nature of the store is one that generates a high number of quick auto trips.  That's true in any locale in anytown, USA. 

That $325k went to subsidize a store that generates an average annual payroll of $90k ($90,000!!!!).  That money could have been used to fund needed transportation projects in a neighborhood (Riverside/Avondale) that has quite a bit of projects it SORELY needs AND to fund a street redesign in Murray Hill (where that same developer owns property) that could revitalize Edgewood Avenue in the same way King Street and Hendricks Ave have been revitalized in the last three years!

So, in the end your tax dollars subsidized minimum wage jobs for a company that identified North Florida as a (and this is a direct quote) 'high growth area' and who is aggressively expanding now that their non-compete with Gate has expired.  Is it any surprise then, that the developer that signed the master area development agreement (that was being negotiated WELL before the Mobilty Plan was even on paper) with this multi-billion company is the one that has spearheaded this moratorium? 

Should we subsidize a large multi-year development agreement for the SOLE reason to increase the developer's profits from 28% to 34% in the guise of 'creating jobs' which are nothing more than minimum wage service jobs in areas that may never collect enough ad valorum taxes (in yours or my lifetime) to cover the costs of the infrastructure needed to support these new parcels?

[Debbie Thompson]

There is no denying that adjustments can and should be made to how the fee is calculated.  But that doesn't mean we have to throw out the entire system.  The only way people will be motivated to fix it is if they have to pay it.

We had an entire year to evaluate these results, and nobody said anything until AFTER the moratorium expired.

Because that's how they work. They don't want it fixed. They want it gone. So they wait until the last minute and pull a fast one.

[sheclown]

I'll be there.

[JeffreyS]

I will be there.

[jcjohnpaint]

Just heard First Coast Connect Rewind.  Lake, your presentation/ interview was great.  I love how you ended your defense by explaining there is facts that back up the MF and no facts (or find the facts) that state the contrary- also based on the rest of the country.  The gentleman states that nobody understands capitalism.  Right.  I wonder if he knows the definition of special interest.  Great for calling him on it! 

[Bridges]

I'll be there tonight too.

[mbwright]

When profit is the sole driver, anything that impact this in a negative way is bad in the minds of the NEFBA.  This town has been run, and in some cases ruined by the building industry for a long time. 

They profit, and the citizens take it on the back for many years.  By all means approve more houses without regard to infrastructure, schools, police, fire, traffic, and other things.

Not all development is bad, some is detrimental, some is good and others are irresponsible.   This all reminds me of the Tree Ordinance years ago, that was never enforced, only to be re-written by developers with no teeth.  The original was fine.  The builders approved the Mobility fee, they need to live by it and be a responsible part of the community.